The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades • Hacker News Board

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#151

Post by jillesvangurp » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 1:57 AM UTC

cbmuser wrote: post #110

Yes, but their energy density has hardly changed and every gasoline tank beats your average LiIon battery by a factor of 10: > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_chemical_rea...

Energy density is a meaningless measure for cars. $ per mile isn't. If you have a heavier battery, you just need a bit more of it to drive the same amount of miles. It just boils down to cost in the end. You can also trade weight for mileage and have less battery. That lowers the cost and improves the mileage. Apparently Tesla has pushed internal cost per kwh of storage below 100$ now. That price is going to drop further.

But lets look at actual mileage at two roughly comparable cars (same vendor and brand):

Mustang Mach E 88kwh/300 mile EPA range. Or about 3.4 mile per kwh.

2021 Ford Mustang Mach 1 does 5.6 gallons per 100 miles (with the 8 cylinder engine). Or about 18 miles per gallon.

https://www.fueleconomy.gov/feg/noframes/43610.shtml

These are just official numbers, take them with a grain of salt. Also, both cars have a couple of variants obviously. Particularly the petrol mileage is likely to get a lot worse over the lifetime of the car as the engine wears out. This is less of a thing with EVs. And you probably have to drive the petrol Mustang like a nun to actually get 5.6 gallons per 100 miles. Likewise EVs have different mileage depending on driving style, temperature, etc. Lets just say they are both a little bit worse typically.

But they are nice numbers to work with and they are based on real world efficiency rather than archaic notions of potential energy, energy density, etc.

With these numbers, 1 gallon is roughly the equivalent of a bit over 5kwh when it comes to mileage in a gas guzzler like the Mustang. Cost for that from a super charger depends on a few factors. Likewise for a gallon of fuel (e.g. taxes). On a super charger at 28cents per kwh, it's like filling your tank for about 1.40$ per gallon , which would be a pretty good gas price that most of the world has not seen in a few decades. A super charger is probably the most expensive place to get your electricity. So, you might do better if you have cheap nightly grid rates or rooftop solar. There are lots of ways to get that number down. But 1.4$ per gallon equivalent is a lot cheaper than petrol. About 2x depending which state you live. Closer to 3x in some states. EVs are a bit heavier than petrol cars of course. But not 10x. Nowhere close to that. Maybe 1.5x or so. Half the energy cost per mile at the price of 50% extra weight is not a bad choice.

That's the reason people are switching to electric. It's just cheaper. It gets better when you also consider maintenance cost. It gets better still when battery and vehicle prices continue to drop. Purchase price of EVs is currently still slightly higher than the equivalent petrol car. But not for very long apparently.

Your mileage may vary but nowhere near 10x. More like 0.5x.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#152

Post by eric-hu » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 1:59 AM UTC

gerdesj wrote: post #129

colechristensen wrote: post #71

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is a sort of meaningless metric, you can adjust your time frame to make the market size arbitrarily small because it was 0 before 1991.

Your parent specifically stated 1991 not "before 1991". I think I understand what you mean but there was also a unfulfilled requirement before 1991. Back then (I'm 50.5 years old) cells didn't explode but then they also didn't set the world alight in terms of longevity either. We had Walkmans and crappy clones that drained the shitty rechargeable cells we had at the time in a few hours. OK those things drove mechanic…

Initial iPods used spinning disks. Solid state was not a factor in early iPod success.

https://www.ifixit.com/Guide/iPod+Classic+Hard+Drive+Replace...

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#153

Post by hypnoscripto » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 2:02 AM UTC

UncleOxidant wrote: post #93

cm2187 wrote: post #39

That's not the price of batteries in general, that's the price of Li-Ion batteries. Were Li-Ion batteries mass produced in 1991?

We used a Lithium D cell in a prototype wireless product at a startup I worked at in 1989. The cells were pre-production samples. I forget the name of the company that was producing them now (I think it was a Japanese company - there were no logos on these batteries), but we were warned not to let them short out as they would go off like a 1/4 stick of dynamite. We were pretty careful with them, but we did have a uni…

How much better than the competition were they then? Did you understand why you were using such a dangerous alternative?

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#154

Post by timonoko » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 2:09 AM UTC

AAs with 500 mAh capacity and 50 mA charging was a marvel at the time. My greatest invention was that I connected bicycle dynamo directly to a small windmill and upped the voltage with diode ladder. It gave only 50 mA, but alas, that was what those batteries were rated for. Wind blows 24/7 so it was remarkable if you compare with solar panels. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XYorx9C-OEE&t=26s

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#155

Post by leucineleprec0n » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 2:11 AM UTC

eric-hu wrote: post #152

gerdesj wrote: post #129

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your parent specifically stated 1991 not "before 1991". I think I understand what you mean but there was also a unfulfilled requirement before 1991. Back then (I'm 50.5 years old) cells didn't explode but then they also didn't set the world alight in terms of longevity either. We had Walkmans and crappy clones that drained the shitty rechargeable cells we had at the time in a few hours. OK those things drove mechanic…

Initial iPods used spinning disks. Solid state was not a factor in early iPod success. https://www.ifixit.com/Guide/iPod+Classic+Hard+Drive+Replace...

It didn't really take off until flash and the colored assortment anyways tho

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#156

Post by gameswithgo » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 2:15 AM UTC

jillesvangurp wrote: post #151

cbmuser wrote: post #110

Yes, but their energy density has hardly changed and every gasoline tank beats your average LiIon battery by a factor of 10: > https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Energy_density#In_chemical_rea...

Energy density is a meaningless measure for cars. $ per mile isn't. If you have a heavier battery, you just need a bit more of it to drive the same amount of miles. It just boils down to cost in the end. You can also trade weight for mileage and have less battery. That lowers the cost and improves the mileage. Apparently Tesla has pushed internal cost per kwh of storage below 100$ now. That price is going to drop fur…

Energy density on mass is not entirely meaningless. A heavier car requires larger tires. That makes the tires a more expensive continuing cost, and creates more particulate pollution. A heavier car also requires larger brakes and pads (though electric cars can offset this with regen). A heavier car also puts more wear onto the roads. A heavier car also makes the car slower at a given horsepower, and have worse handling characteristics.

So metrics like energy per kg, energy per volume, and energy per $ can all be relevant.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#157

Post by brianwawok » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 2:23 AM UTC

cogman10 wrote: post #91

quickthrowman wrote: post #81

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t live in Texas, I live somewhere that the natural gas doesn’t go out because people will die if it does, so our infrastructure is winterized and maintained. We get some -30F every winter and the natural gas service is always there. You could swap out the NG generator for a diesel one with a day tank and then you don’t have to worry about NG service :) A 30kwH battery wall is going to last 6-12 hours at most an…

60kWh for 4k then? What about 120kWh for 8k? Point being you could target your outage range based on what you want to prep for at a fairly low cost (assuming $50/kWh). Add on a solar system to any of these and you'd have indefinite power without a reliance on surrounding infrastructure. For my home, 30kWh would give me ~24hr of power. Even if you want a fossil fuel generator, you could have an auto switch to battery…

My whole house generator runs on natural gas. Indiana natural supply gas is stable and afaik never stopped in the last 20 years. It automatically fires up 6 seconds after power goes out and runs my entire house including EV charger. It’s fairly quiet, cannot hear with windows closed.

Cost like 5k and 2K install. Really hard to beat that in the near term with battery.

No it doesn’t do the demand shift part of a battery, but it’s pretty clearly better as an emergency solution, at least for my needs.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#158

Post by dragonwriter » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 2:24 AM UTC

SilverRed wrote: post #150

dragonwriter wrote: post #147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> A home battery in many places is basically free money. Only if its a free battery. Otherwise, its an income stream with an up front cost.

Which is why its not common, but with battery prices coming down and dirt cheap second hand batteries on the horizon, this is going to become a big industry. An old tesla battery with only 50% capacity remaining is still perfectly good for this kind of use even if not so great for driving.

> Which is why its not common, but with battery prices coming down and dirt cheap second hand batteries on the horizon, this is going to become a big industry.

Maybe briefly, especially where retail customers with some installed renewable generating capacity can leverage the latter to take advantage of net metering laws designed to bring renewable capacity to the grid, because otherwise their stuck buying at retail and, if allowed to sell back at all, selling at wholesale.

Bur cheaper batteries mean proper utility players (e.g., a joint operation of PG&E and Tesla) are building large, purpose-built storage facilities, often colocated with generation facilities, with lower marginal costs for real estate and interconnection than separate facilities and better access to financing than small operators.

Storage is going to be a big industry going forward, but the period where home storage (or storage by anyone but major utility players) is a viable financial hack rather than just a backup plan for grid failure will probably be brief unless artificially subsidized to encourage distributed storage.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#159

Post by vosper » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 2:32 AM UTC

mschuster91 wrote: post #137

14 wrote: post #122

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I am curious, what kind of projects do you do with those batteries, what is their use for? Thank you

E-cigarettes or cannabis vaper if I were to guess, this is (other than RC drones) the only thing where you need the rated discharge current.

They’re very popular in the boutique flashlight industry

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#160

Post by catblast01 » Tue, Jun 08, 2021, 2:42 AM UTC

UncleOxidant wrote: post #93

cm2187 wrote: post #39

That's not the price of batteries in general, that's the price of Li-Ion batteries. Were Li-Ion batteries mass produced in 1991?

We used a Lithium D cell in a prototype wireless product at a startup I worked at in 1989. The cells were pre-production samples. I forget the name of the company that was producing them now (I think it was a Japanese company - there were no logos on these batteries), but we were warned not to let them short out as they would go off like a 1/4 stick of dynamite. We were pretty careful with them, but we did have a uni…

Were these disposable lithium metal batteries or rechargeable lithium ion? They’re pretty different technologies. Both are prone to rapid discharge overheating problems though.