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The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

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Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#41
post #3

This is really cool, but could anyone familiar with the domain estimate how far we are along the S-curve? I.e. it took a long time for things to ramp up, then they accelerate really quickly and then they slow down again. Think Moore's Law, which is dead now. What would be the price estimate for 2030, for example. I think we're now around $100 per kwh (or something like that), what should we expect for 2030? $60? $20?

If musk is to believed, (and I think he's on point with this), $50/kWh will likely come within the next 5 years.

So next 9 years? My expectation is beyond Tesla, the rest of the industry will have hit on that sub $50/kwh price point. That is going to make a lot of things really interesting. $2000 for a 30kWh home battery backup? Who wouldn't get one?

To further this, with climate change leading to more and more extreme weather, I'm expecting that power outages are going to be semi-common (assuming the grid doesn't invest in battery backup).

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#42
post #28

I just bought a 12v 200ah battery for $2300 AUD. It could be done for less, but this was a premium model. Hopefully when I purchase a second one in a year or two, it will be a bit cheaper.

Ive seen them on ebay for $850. Seem premium too. From a company that has been around for 12 years.

I wanted to get one for my boat, but they are the wrong size. They seem to make them longer, instead of wider, so can't drop in replace the 2x100ah I have now.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#43
post #39

That's not the price of batteries in general, that's the price of Li-Ion batteries. Were Li-Ion batteries mass produced in 1991?

The first commercial/mass produced lithium ion batteries came out in exactly 1991 as a matter of fact! They were used in a Sony camera.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#44

Although Li-Ion cells are getting cheaper and cheaper every year, it still is worth salvaging the good ones from depleted laptop battery packs. When a laptop battery pack is gone it's almost always the case of one, max two, 18650 elements that failed, not the whole pack. I've built some good power banks using empty shells (very cheap on Ebay, Aliexpress etc.) and fitting inside the good cells salvaged that way. They…

Does this come with a “know what you are doing” caveat? I’d be scared of creating an electric firelighter in the process. Also assuming money is no object. Is it as good for the environment to recycle the old battery and buy a refurbed one.

> Does this come with a “know what you are doing” caveat?

Yes, and I'll suggest that a disturbingly large fraction of the people doing this on YouTube don't know what they're doing, and are being brutally unsafe with the batteries, even if it works.

I've done battery pack rebuilding semi-professionally for a few years (I was rebuilding ebike packs for most of North America from about 2015 to 2018), and the people screwing around with the used/recycled cells scare the hell out of me. In no particular order:

* They don't care to invest in a spot welder and they solder directly to the terminals. Every datasheet out there for 18650s that mentions soldering says the same thing: "DO NOT solder directly to our terminals." You spot weld a strip on and then solder to that. Soldering to the terminal puts a ton of heat into the end of the battery which then flows into the cell windings. The separator is usually plastic. You really don't want to weaken it. With a spot welder, I can put my finger on the terminal immediately after spot welding, and I can spread out the welds in time. If I want three welds (six spots) on a terminal, I can do one weld on each cell, then come back for the rest, and keep the temperature "comfortable to a fingertip." I cannot do that soldering.

* They tend to take a single snapshot of cell capacity, maybe internal resistance, and then assign cells that way. Unless they organize them by wrapper color for aesthetics, ignoring the cell capacity and behaviors. Some cell chemistries will degrade far faster than others, and you'd ideally like to not have a mess of stuff in the same pack.

* They recharge dead cells with no idea how long they've been dead. Lithium cells are physically stressed at full charge and fully empty, and a cell that has been empty for a while may have very real internal physical damage, such that it will fail later. I won't charge anything under 2.5V unless I know exactly how and when it got there, and if it's much below 2.0V, I still won't put voltage to it. The risk of a lithium battery runaway and fire is too high for my tastes. Lithium battery runaways, beyond lighting stuff on fire, tend to emit things like HF, which you very definitely don't want to breathe. It doesn't hurt a bit while it's killing you, because it destroys the nerves first. Health-wise, you're actually better off if the battery venting is flaming, because the mixture of gases coming off that is somewhat less toxic. Again, it depends on the particular chemistry what you get. It's never anything friendly.

Unfortunately, "recycling" lithium batteries isn't really established yet, and most of what seems to pass for "recycling" is the cells getting shipped to China, having new ends put on to hide the spot welds, and then getting a shiny wrapper and sold with impossible capacities to vapers for $0.75 or something silly. The highest capacity 18650s are around 3600-3800mAh, and don't source an awful lot of amps in the deal. Anything claiming higher (again, in the 18650 form factor) is certainly a lie.

You can do it, if you're careful, but by the time you've properly characterized the batteries, I'm not convinced it's worth the time/effort. Those who claim it is tend to skip a lot of checks and be really, really casual with their packs. To their credit, they rarely catch fire, but the whole "DIY Powerwall" crowd using scavenged and abused cells is not a good example to follow.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#45
post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Does this come with a “know what you are doing” caveat? I’d be scared of creating an electric firelighter in the process. Also assuming money is no object. Is it as good for the environment to recycle the old battery and buy a refurbed one.

I replied with some questions about the safety of this, as I had some concerns when reading it. Aside from the issue I mentioned in reply, the only real caveat would be "know the basics of working with electronics without shorting things or electrocuting yourself" and "check out some youtube videos on rebuilding 18650 packs so you don't do it in a horribly wrong way".

> "check out some youtube videos on rebuilding 18650 packs so you don't do it in a horribly wrong way".

Bad idea, because about 90% of what they do is fine, and 10% is very, very wrong. Unless you know what you're doing, it's almost impossible to tell which is which.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#46

This is nothing short of remarkable. Now lets hope that inflation does not make them 97% more expensive again.

We’ve had inflation during the entire three decades this decline took place over.

We’ve had inflation yes, but what about second inflation?

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#47
post #33

Although Li-Ion cells are getting cheaper and cheaper every year, it still is worth salvaging the good ones from depleted laptop battery packs. When a laptop battery pack is gone it's almost always the case of one, max two, 18650 elements that failed, not the whole pack. I've built some good power banks using empty shells (very cheap on Ebay, Aliexpress etc.) and fitting inside the good cells salvaged that way. They…

I was under the impression that mixing and matching cells (by model or by age/number of charge cycles used) can be sketchy. For example, if you have a very heavily used battery in series with new battery, everything may look okay externally, but you may end up over-discharging the older battery. What are your thoughts on this? Haven't had any issues? Or do you take steps to mitigate it?

Match them based on internal resistance and capacity after running some tests. Most people don't even really bother with the resistance.

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#48
post #33

Although Li-Ion cells are getting cheaper and cheaper every year, it still is worth salvaging the good ones from depleted laptop battery packs. When a laptop battery pack is gone it's almost always the case of one, max two, 18650 elements that failed, not the whole pack. I've built some good power banks using empty shells (very cheap on Ebay, Aliexpress etc.) and fitting inside the good cells salvaged that way. They…

I was under the impression that mixing and matching cells (by model or by age/number of charge cycles used) can be sketchy. For example, if you have a very heavily used battery in series with new battery, everything may look okay externally, but you may end up over-discharging the older battery. What are your thoughts on this? Haven't had any issues? Or do you take steps to mitigate it?

Since he mostly talked about having them in parallel, this might not be an issue for him. I also think a bms can solve that issue

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#49

Although Li-Ion cells are getting cheaper and cheaper every year, it still is worth salvaging the good ones from depleted laptop battery packs. When a laptop battery pack is gone it's almost always the case of one, max two, 18650 elements that failed, not the whole pack. I've built some good power banks using empty shells (very cheap on Ebay, Aliexpress etc.) and fitting inside the good cells salvaged that way. They…

Do you know a good source of info on how to test these cells?

Re: The price of lithium-ion batteries has declined by 97% in the last three decades

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We’ve had inflation during the entire three decades this decline took place over.

Check out lumber

A short term supply shock in one unrelated item seems unlikely to change the trend in battery prices.
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