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Ask HN: How would you invest $20k?

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Re: Ask HN: How would you invest $20k?

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure and so would a penny. Suppose you want your investment portfolio to return 7% a year. If it has $2,000,000 you have enough cash on cash return to live off. Enough cash on cash return that you might make maintaining your portfolio a full time job. It's just as much work to get 7% returns on a penny (or $20k) but the cash on cash returns are not enough to make it worth working as a full time job. Now suppose you $…

I don’t quite see it that I way. I think it is much harder to find 200,000,000 dollars worth of mispriced assets than it is to find 20k. The crumbs that would be a rounding error on 200 mil would be a huge return on 20k

Finding mispriced assets requires dumb luck. With $200,000,000 you can look for someone taking their returns or liquidating a position.

You can buy a profitable business for its future cash flow at market rate. It with adequate capital becomes a matter of not experiencing bad luck versus getting lucky.

At $20k the rate of return for money is swamped by the rate of return for time. There are better uses of time than seeking high return rate investments.

Saving the money means if you stumble upon one, the money is there available quickly. It is also an acknowledgment that you are relying on dumb luck not beating the market.

Re: Ask HN: How would you invest $20k?

#22
post #4

Quit job, write an app, make money off it. I might need another job while waiting for it to grow, but by the end of 5 years, it'll likely be way more than $20k in the bank.

“An app” is not enough. This isn’t 2009

There are plenty of problems that haven't been solved. It's just that most of these are million dollar ideas and not billion dollar ones - VCs won't cover them. They're too risky to do as a team, but too big to do as a side project for one person.

There's space for converting reference books to reference tools for example, like a city council once asked me for something to make building valuations easier, but we never closed that deal. Android is missing a dumb cloud note taking tool that just works, and yet there are a trillion note apps for iOS. Heck both platforms are lacking things that just charge once, no subscription, no gacha model.

Also AI opens up a lot of previously uncovered fields, and a lot of it is just API connections.

Re: Ask HN: How would you invest $20k?

#23
I guess the question you should be asking, how much capital are you trying to generate and how much risk are you willing to take?

You talk about a 5 year timeline, do you want a nice 5% return annually for 5 years? End up with 25k. Then you're looking at safer investments into index funds or maybe even high yield bonds.

Do you want it to be 100k or a mil? Then you're looking at trying to pick horses in investments. What will give you 5x return in 5 years, probably picking a single or handful of assets that could see major return. Could be stocks or something crypto. You could certainly yolo it wallstreetbets style and buy GME/AMC/whatever you think is the next meme stock that will pop. Could potentially get that return tomorrow, especially if you bought options and get lucky. I sold a covered call last month, whomever bought it could have potentially made 66x in 2 weeks. Had that been you and your risk tolerance is insanely high, you could have been a millionaire from that 20k (yes, I sold a AMC call, covered of course).

Re: Ask HN: How would you invest $20k?

#24
post #7

I am a fan of the Coffee Can Portfolio. The idea of a Coffee Can is simple: You try to find the best stocks you can and let them sit for years. You incur no costs with such a portfolio, and it is simple to manage. I share mine here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tBrZEMFK9XNWxiqOxE8o...

Thanks for sharing. The white text on light green background is very hard to read though (Google sheets app).

Re: Ask HN: How would you invest $20k?

#25
post #7

I am a fan of the Coffee Can Portfolio. The idea of a Coffee Can is simple: You try to find the best stocks you can and let them sit for years. You incur no costs with such a portfolio, and it is simple to manage. I share mine here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1tBrZEMFK9XNWxiqOxE8o...

Thanks for sharing. The white text on light green background is very hard to read though (Google sheets app).

All cells with green background have black text.

Are you just referring to the default white cell background that google sheets have?

Re: Ask HN: How would you invest $20k?

#26
i would take $1k to invest on some good stock options trading course[1] and use the remaining $19k on swing trading, while i keep my day job, until i am proficient enough to make my living from it ( my current plan, actually )

[1] https://www.investopedia.com/best-options-trading-courses-51...

Re: Ask HN: How would you invest $20k?

#29
Use 2:1 leverage to turn that 20k into 40k.

When to buy:

Use Warren Buffet's famous quote: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." If you're reading an article about why XXX stock is great, it's already too late to get in (meme stocks might be an exception).

If it feels like you have to buy XXX stock NOW or the price will go up, it's already too late. Take a few days to mull it over. Never FOMO.

When to sell:

Set stop losses. I set a stop loss at -10%. Diamond hands is a tactic people tell others to use when they themselves want to sell.

If you are at the point where your gains are good enough that you want to take a screenshot and send it to your friend--this is a good time to sell.

EDIT: Because I realize I answered the question "How would you invest 20k in the stock market?" and not "How would you invest 20k?": I would absolutely run from real estate right now. Prices are sky high due to inflation / lumber shortage / supply. You would be buying at peak.

If I had a spare 20k I would use maybe 1k to attend a conference and learn a skill which would help me earn more money in the future. I would put 15k into the stock market using above method, or crypto. And I would use the remaining money to fund a passive income online business.

Re: Ask HN: How would you invest $20k?

#30
post #29

Use 2:1 leverage to turn that 20k into 40k. When to buy: Use Warren Buffet's famous quote: "Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful." If you're reading an article about why XXX stock is great, it's already too late to get in (meme stocks might be an exception). If it feels like you have to buy XXX stock NOW or the price will go up, it's already too late. Take a few days to mull it over.…

> I would absolutely run from real estate right now. Prices are sky high due to inflation / lumber shortage / supply. You would be buying at peak.

While things are crazy, real-estate is good if more serious inflation hits. Charlie Monger talks about investing for inflation periods by focusing on assets where the money to create the return is spent. That way as prices rise your cost base doesn't. He gives railways as an example. Property is the same if it exists, while to your point a property builder isn't because crazy costs.

Also I agree property is overvalued at the moment, but what isn't? Its going to come down to interest rates, inflation and unemployment.

No-one really knows but my guess is inflation in the short/medium terms as global economies try to avoid the pain followed by higher interest and unemployment. Even if that prediction was correct, imagine trying to time it... its not a simple investment market! So are we back to regular ETF contributions and ride the dips?

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