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The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

vanityfair.com

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Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#351

Post by rhacker »

rayiner wrote: post #310
bartart wrote: post #2

This is the most shocking article I have ever read in my life. I'd ask everyone to please read it because it is incredible. One thing I did not realize is that US researchers who conducted gain of function research tried to downplay and discredit the possibility of the virus originating from the wuhan lab. There was an anti-lab theory Lancet statement signed by scientists, and "Daszak had not only signed but organize…

We shouldn’t be surprised by any of this. Scientists are human and have human motivations and flaws. They are political, they cover their ass, they suffer from results oriented thinking. “Science” should be trusted within its domain, but it’s not a replacement for all of the processes western society has developed to address the reality that nobody can be trusted with power. Everyone needs to perform their roles. Rep…

I've been hearing more and more that science is moving from the model "theory holds" to a set of arrogant people backing them.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#352

Post by chmod600 »

colechristensen wrote: post #298
seaman1921 wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

this is terrifying.. who can we even trust then :\ Such exposed dishonesty leads to more and more people completely losing faith in everything that the scientists say and turning into anti-vaccers etc.

You don't "trust" often or very much. You look for a society where conflicting ideas are encouraged and are based in reason not whacky extremist ideology. You trust good disagreements and debates, you look for argument and parties which try to convince with facts and solid arguments. We can't just live in a world where my side is right and your side is evil. The strength of the US system of government and any democra…

What does that say about social media censors and "fact checkers"?

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#353

Post by deugo »

deugo wrote: post #294
Natsu wrote: post #247

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wouldn't say that all GOF research is for bioweapons, part of it is to see where the virus is likely to evolve next and protect against that, which is more on the defensive side of that. Doesn't mean it's less risky, mind you, and this is convincing me that the experts on this need to reassess whether it's worth the risks and if so, what safety precautions are needed. I would think that BSL-2 is just way too low, b…

If you want to take the military lab work with coronavirus seriously, you should instantly forget about a mass-casualty biological weapon. Coronavirus is studied for other purposes than that. Military wants to be able to release a coronavirus which can target on gene profile, or even activate for certain DNA. That way you can release a virus, let it run with all the regular flus, and have your targets die in their ow…

If you want to take the military lab work with coronavirus seriously, you should instantly forget about a mass-casualty biological weapon. Coronavirus is studied for other purposes than that. Military wants to be able to release a coronavirus which can target on gene profile, or even activate for certain DNA. That way you can release a virus, let it run with all the regular flus, and have your targets die in their own country, of say, a stroke, blood clothing, or they stopped breathing in their sleep. Another study of coronavirus is as a debilitating weapon, much like a cyber attack on hospitals and the energy grid. The entire country suffers an economic crisis and needs to turn their attention away from you to manage it.

The bioweapon thing is a distraction though, I think. There was massive military activity at WIV, and they accidentally released a GoF virus mostly used for publishing papers such as: We made this virus in the freezer infect humans cells, and you can't believe what happened next! It shows (potentially) the potential to become a future pandemic!

It is all so painfully ironic. I think the virology community got afraid of advanced in data modeling, and, avoiding missed grants and early retirement, started to hack Nature because only they could/were allowed to. They bugged out. It happens. They released a "biological weapon" which estimated killed over 8 million people now. They did it from a lab where shady military research is happening. Expose either and the jig is up. Maybe one protects the other...

Edit: since the parent is being flag-botted, here another morsel for you to chew on. Taiwan is a country.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#354

Post by repiret »

graeme wrote: post #240
tmp404 wrote: post #155

While this article is quite illuminating on the political side of the lab leak theory, on the evidence side it's mostly a rehash of some long-standing speculations. The only recent evidence it contains is the fact that 3 researchers from WIV sought hospital care back in autumn of 2019 with symptoms similar to COVID. However, this piece of evidence is hardly consequential without further details: - First, most common…

Thanks for that context. I had thought the hospital care was more significant as flu hospitalization is rare in working age people. But medical visits are common so that is quite different.

What’s really missing in the analysis is the base rate of WIV workers visiting the hospital with cold symptoms. I’ve heard plausible explanations for why it might be pedestrian or why it might be exceptional, but it’s all meaningless without the base rate.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#355

Post by Izkata »

analog31 wrote: post #64
kaesar14 wrote: post #54

It’s crazy to me how many people on even this forum, a place purportedly of science, continue to dismiss a lab leak origin out of hand citing it as some sort of crackpot theory. The serious questions raised in this article have been around since last April but it’s only now it’s even allowed to talk about them on digital forums. Excellent write up by Vanity Fair.

Here's what I remember from that time period. My recollection is that the wet market hypothesis fell out of favor rather quickly, but nothing else really emerged in its place. The lab leak theory was circulating, but amongst people such as rank-and-file scientists, the attitude was: We aren't going to get a straight answer about this, but we've got to defeat this virus. I don't remember dismissing the lab leak theory…

> Looking back in hindsight, I wonder how we could have picked out the lab leak theory as being worthy of consideration, given the context.

There were a lot of threads to pull, and some of us were following it. For example, this video was posted in April 2020: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bpQFCcSI0pU

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#357

Post by ramraj07 »

bartart wrote: post #2

This is the most shocking article I have ever read in my life. I'd ask everyone to please read it because it is incredible. One thing I did not realize is that US researchers who conducted gain of function research tried to downplay and discredit the possibility of the virus originating from the wuhan lab. There was an anti-lab theory Lancet statement signed by scientists, and "Daszak had not only signed but organize…

This New York mag article [1] published eons ago already made it clear to any sane biologist that all you mentioned are important things to consider. However the issue is sane biologists or scientists in general are actually in extreme short supply, the vast majority are often under the delusion that they “understand the system” better than they actually do. They also are often knowingly and unknowingly more interested in persevering their personal agenda (for eg. Gain of function research in the general sense in this case) than the overall good of humanity or scientific rigor.

Take Fauci for example, is he a good scientist? Yes. But it’s also clear that he too subconsciously has pushed for the method of approaching pandemics that coincidentally he was good at, and now we are left with this mess. I doubt him or anyone in between is going to acknowledge it even if they realize it. I was downvoted here to oblivion for pointing this out weeks back but doesn’t matter. I threw away a decade of my life’s experience because I didn’t believe in this cult of an academic system, downvotes don’t hurt nearly as much.

1. https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-esca...

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#358

Post by thrdbndndn »

CapmCrackaWaka wrote: post #99
Leary wrote: post #72

Wall Street Journal's article on US Intelligence having information on the three potential sick WIV researchers was written by a reporter named Michael R. Gordon[1]. [1] https://www.wsj.com/articles/intelligence-on-sick-staff-at-w... This is the same Michael R. Gordon who in 2002 wrote the famous NYTimes article saying US Intelligence had credible information that Iraq had Weapons of Mass Destruction (Thousands of al…

To be clear - this guy's article didn't lead to the Iraq war. He was writing about the information that the US intelligence offices were putting out, which at this point we know was dubious. That really has nothing to do with his credibility.

Saying it "has nothing to do with his credibility" sounds extremely naive.

It is totally within possibility that he is "writing about the information that the US intelligence offices were putting out" this time too, to make certain narrative that the US government wants.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#359

Post by mindslight »

jkhdigital wrote: post #136
beachy wrote: post #113

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When someone demonstrably lies constantly, it's not unreasonable to assume that the truth is most likely the opposite of what they say.

No, the reasonable response is to completely ignore what they say, because otherwise you are still being manipulated by the liar.

It's easy to ignore the liar themselves, but it's impossible to ignore repetitions of the liar's message. The only possibility is to ignore any message matching the liar's, regardless of provenance. This completely screws up rational discourse.

And yes, such manipulation and corruption of debate is the general problem with liars being awarded leadership positions.

Re: The lab-leak theory: inside the fight to uncover Covid-19’s origins

#360

Post by ramraj07 »

bglazer wrote: post #323
tmp404 wrote: post #155

While this article is quite illuminating on the political side of the lab leak theory, on the evidence side it's mostly a rehash of some long-standing speculations. The only recent evidence it contains is the fact that 3 researchers from WIV sought hospital care back in autumn of 2019 with symptoms similar to COVID. However, this piece of evidence is hardly consequential without further details: - First, most common…

I'm quite astounded and confused at the sudden shift in discourse towards assuming that the lab leak theory must be true. It's not so much the theory itself that's surprising. Lab leak remains plausible but less probable then natural origins. The sudden shift is just baffling to me though. This huge new furor is due to anonymous CIA sources saying three people got sick? That's extremely tenuous evidence, as you state…

So you’re saying because there’s no new evidence the new furor is not worth it? It was clear for some of us from the beginning that the evidence is damning enough from the beginning.

If you’re going to demand incontrovertible evidence that might never come up. But considering the scenario, viz. a cabal of careless scientists accidentally unleashed a plague that is killing millions , even the slightest hint of a cover up needs to be taken seriously.

Having worked with enough scientists I don’t for a moment doubt this hypothesis either. Ego and arrogance is what drives most of them, they’d rather choose self-perseverance over accidentally killing millions and go home to have lasagna as if it was just another Thursday without a sweat.

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