China allows couples to have three children • Hacker News Board

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#281

Post by babayega2 » Mon, May 31, 2021, 6:05 PM UTC

beaunative wrote: post #279

baybal2 wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is some question on whether the one-child policy was even needed. > The ghastly human rights violations that led from the policy were completely unnecessary. No, this was entirely intentional. That was the whole point. This is "the big lie theory" taken to its extreme. It was done to keep people, and party cadres preoccupied. If you were to speak to an adult Chinese at around late eighties, the 1 child policy…

How is the crisis artificial? The amount of agricultural land China needed to sustain its population is totally calculable. the Chinese population grow threefold from 1912 to when the policy was introduced, had it been growing like that, today China would have HALF of the world's population. it's understandable to think it might an ecologically unsustainable growth.

I totally understand you. Peoples come in here and just go on criticize policies because they don't know the reality of living in an overpopulated country with limited ressources.

In Africa, Burundi, my country of 28km2, we have more than 90% of the litigations in the courts about land and properties. Siblings kill each other for land! We have 5.4 children/woman. One of the biggest natality rate in Africa. Only surpassed by Niger! We have American evangelical coming in scaring peoples to do abortions and contraception! We can't even talk about sterilization! With population density of more than 450 peoples by the km2.

Primary School is free and children get free healthcare till 5 years of age. It means that those 5.4 children per woman are likely to live and multiply!

What do you think we need to do?

I can only imagine how Chinese peoples did projections and saw that by the end of the century they would be half the world population without half the ressources and took drastic measures!

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#282

Post by baybal2 » Mon, May 31, 2021, 6:13 PM UTC

beaunative wrote: post #279

baybal2 wrote: post #216

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There is some question on whether the one-child policy was even needed. > The ghastly human rights violations that led from the policy were completely unnecessary. No, this was entirely intentional. That was the whole point. This is "the big lie theory" taken to its extreme. It was done to keep people, and party cadres preoccupied. If you were to speak to an adult Chinese at around late eighties, the 1 child policy…

How is the crisis artificial? The amount of agricultural land China needed to sustain its population is totally calculable. the Chinese population grow threefold from 1912 to when the policy was introduced, had it been growing like that, today China would have HALF of the world's population. it's understandable to think it might an ecologically unsustainable growth.

> The amount of agricultural land China needed to sustain its population is totally calculable.

And it was more than enough to feed China even back then.

It's a poor insinuation claiming that top statesmen didn't know that. They knew it very well, and they also knew how catastrophically they mismanaged the agriculture.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#283

Post by crakenzak » Mon, May 31, 2021, 6:14 PM UTC

refenestrator wrote: post #236

stanrivers wrote: post #214

A lot of people are asking why a policy is even still needed - why not go for no limit at all? 1) There is an entire family planning bureaucracy within the CCP setup to manage this; would do you do with all those people if they are not needed anymore? 2) China is more strict on population planning for certain minorities - not officially, but in the background; think Muslims in western China or Tibet or Mongolians, or…

Historically, minorities were allowed to have more children than Han Chinese, FYI. Han only reached the same child allowance recently.

source?

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#284

Post by beaunative » Mon, May 31, 2021, 6:15 PM UTC

chitowneats wrote: post #220

stanrivers wrote: post #214

A lot of people are asking why a policy is even still needed - why not go for no limit at all? 1) There is an entire family planning bureaucracy within the CCP setup to manage this; would do you do with all those people if they are not needed anymore? 2) China is more strict on population planning for certain minorities - not officially, but in the background; think Muslims in western China or Tibet or Mongolians, or…

"The ASPI report said birth rates in counties with a 90 percent or greater indigenous population declined by an average of 56.5 percent from 2017 to 2018, far more than other regions in Xinjiang and China during the same period." https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-uses-coercive-poli... 56.5% decline in birth rates in one year when the right sample is taken. Beyond shocking. Doing such a thing with your left ha…

the problem with that report is that I can't find anywhere the exact number, it only states decline by 56.5% without showing any specific numbers. I'm mildly suspicious that they originally had a much higher birth rate than Han Chinese since the same policy allowed one kid for Han Chinese allowed two to four kids for minorities

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#285

Post by beaunative » Mon, May 31, 2021, 6:19 PM UTC

beaunative wrote: post #284

chitowneats wrote: post #220

Earlier quoted context omitted.

"The ASPI report said birth rates in counties with a 90 percent or greater indigenous population declined by an average of 56.5 percent from 2017 to 2018, far more than other regions in Xinjiang and China during the same period." https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-uses-coercive-poli... 56.5% decline in birth rates in one year when the right sample is taken. Beyond shocking. Doing such a thing with your left ha…

the problem with that report is that I can't find anywhere the exact number, it only states decline by 56.5% without showing any specific numbers. I'm mildly suspicious that they originally had a much higher birth rate than Han Chinese since the same policy allowed one kid for Han Chinese allowed two to four kids for minorities

update, in a related voa newspiece, it reads 'For example, in Hotan prefecture, where the Uyghurs make up about 97% of the population, the birthrate was 8.58 per 1,000 people in 2018. Before 2017, it was more than 20 births per 1,000 people' at the same time the national average was around 11

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#286

Post by chitowneats » Mon, May 31, 2021, 6:20 PM UTC

chitowneats wrote: post #220

stanrivers wrote: post #214

A lot of people are asking why a policy is even still needed - why not go for no limit at all? 1) There is an entire family planning bureaucracy within the CCP setup to manage this; would do you do with all those people if they are not needed anymore? 2) China is more strict on population planning for certain minorities - not officially, but in the background; think Muslims in western China or Tibet or Mongolians, or…

"The ASPI report said birth rates in counties with a 90 percent or greater indigenous population declined by an average of 56.5 percent from 2017 to 2018, far more than other regions in Xinjiang and China during the same period." https://www.reuters.com/world/china/china-uses-coercive-poli... 56.5% decline in birth rates in one year when the right sample is taken. Beyond shocking. Doing such a thing with your left ha…

In case any potential down voters are not educated on the matter, the U.N. convention on genocide specifically prohibits targeting ethnic or religious minorities for forced sterilization/birth control:

https://www.un.org/en/genocideprevention/genocide.shtml

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#287

Post by chillee » Mon, May 31, 2021, 6:21 PM UTC

crakenzak wrote: post #283

refenestrator wrote: post #236

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Historically, minorities were allowed to have more children than Han Chinese, FYI. Han only reached the same child allowance recently.

source?

https://lkyspp.nus.edu.sg/gia/article/what-did-china's-one-c...

> When the policy was implemented, 26 [out of 31] Chinese provinces allowed ethnic minorities to have an additional child.

There were other exemptions too - for example, rural farmers could often also be exempted, particularly if their first child was a daughter.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#288

Post by chitowneats » Mon, May 31, 2021, 6:22 PM UTC

beaunative wrote: post #285

beaunative wrote: post #284

Earlier quoted context omitted.

the problem with that report is that I can't find anywhere the exact number, it only states decline by 56.5% without showing any specific numbers. I'm mildly suspicious that they originally had a much higher birth rate than Han Chinese since the same policy allowed one kid for Han Chinese allowed two to four kids for minorities

update, in a related voa newspiece, it reads 'For example, in Hotan prefecture, where the Uyghurs make up about 97% of the population, the birthrate was 8.58 per 1,000 people in 2018. Before 2017, it was more than 20 births per 1,000 people' at the same time the national average was around 11

That's one specific example, yes.

You can find the 36 page report here:

https://s3-ap-southeast-2.amazonaws.com/ad-aspi/2021-05/Fami...

Edit: via this summary from ASPI (in case the AWS link above breaks in the future)

https://www.aspi.org.au/report/family-deplanning-birthrates-...

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#289

Post by baybal2 » Mon, May 31, 2021, 6:25 PM UTC

babayega2 wrote: post #281

beaunative wrote: post #279

Earlier quoted context omitted.

How is the crisis artificial? The amount of agricultural land China needed to sustain its population is totally calculable. the Chinese population grow threefold from 1912 to when the policy was introduced, had it been growing like that, today China would have HALF of the world's population. it's understandable to think it might an ecologically unsustainable growth.

I totally understand you. Peoples come in here and just go on criticize policies because they don't know the reality of living in an overpopulated country with limited ressources. In Africa, Burundi, my country of 28km2, we have more than 90% of the litigations in the courts about land and properties. Siblings kill each other for land! We have 5.4 children/woman. One of the biggest natality rate in Africa. Only surpa…

> What do you think we need to do?

Work.

What is the difference in between 10 people making less than 1 ton on an acre and starving, and 10000 people making less than 1000 tons on 1000 acres, and starving?

The difference is just the number of starving people.

And add to that that all land was, and still is nationalised in China.

> I can only imagine how Chinese peoples did projections and saw that by the end of the century they would be half the world population

And communists knew it being 100% bullshit for masses. Just like Mao very well know how "4 pests," and other mass actions been complete bonkers.

They were not stupid to the point of drinking their own coolaid.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#290

Post by screye » Mon, May 31, 2021, 6:29 PM UTC

The CCP (and often communist revolutions in general) underestimate the massive intergenerational effects of societal rehaul that can only be restored with policies more draconian than the ones that destroyed those norms in the first place.

China now has 2 generations that've never known uncles, aunts, siblings or the conception of family beyond the nuclear unit. New norms have developed around the amount of investment that parents are expected to put in a child, with work being the only other thing that is supposed to matter.

The soft incentives have realigned to strongly discourage children. Multiple children makes it difficult for parents to be invested in a single child or work in a way that society expects them to. The thousand year long values of sibling relationships have to be built back up from zero, and is not trivial in the least.

For a country where maternity leave is punishing to a woman's career, a career that women are also taught to care deeply for, convincing women to have multiple children will be a tall ask. We are already seeing a plummeting marriage rate and an average marriage age that's steadily rising.

With all of these things in mind, the only way CCP reverses the current trend, is if they pull a Mao and practically force people to marry more and earlier/have multiple children by introducing incentives as draconian as Mao's China.