Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

China allows couples to have three children

bbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

81–90 of 339 posts

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#81

Post by beowulfey »

thaumasiotes wrote: post #16
alva wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

X = 1 is not exponential growth

Yes, it is. Since the population is shrinking over time, it is more often called "exponential decay", but mathematically there's no difference. It just means the value of the exponent is negative.

Some people pick the strangest hills to die on.

Per this argument, I would think that an exponential function is different to something experiencing exponential growth. One of them is a definition, the other is a description. They aren’t really interchangeable when it comes to communicating a point.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#83

Post by dmichulke »

areyousure wrote: post #62
dan-robertson wrote: post #50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wasn’t their some policy saying that rural mothers could have a second child if their first was a girl? If they each had the maximum number of children, it would lead to an average of about 1 boy and 0.75 girls per rural mother.

50% B + 25% GB + 25% GG = 0.75 B + 0.75 G. Can you think of a law ("stopping rule") that could even get the expected number of boys higher than the expected number of girls?

For gambling it would would work if you do a "double or nothing" type of bet.

Unfortunately, you'll be quickly rate limited by birth capacity, even if you somehow manage to double the amount of children per birth.

Also, asymptotically, you'll still be around a 50% split.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#85

Post by necovek »

One of the most common things I see these demographic analysis miss is the changing average age of mothers: as they focus on careers, they might postpone giving birth to later in life (30-40yo), compared to the traditional (20-30yo). With this move happening over a couple of decades, it is only natural to have a diminished birth rate as motherhood catches up with the 10 year shift (since it's a cultural thing, it would be happening over a time span of, say, 20 years).

I don't know if it's true in China, but if looked at carefully, it might not be the time to sound the alarms. The same happened in the West, just by 20-50 years prior.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#86

Post by hutzlibu »

dragonelite wrote: post #66
blueblisters wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the idea is to bring the average up to 2.1, which is the accepted "replacement" fertility rate, to stem a population decline. One way to achieve that level is when a majority of women have 2 children but a few have 3 children. For a population the size of China, a "few" might mean a few million. I don't see that happening without a few carrots.

Its a hard problem to solve don't even know a developed country that actually managed this problem well.

I am not sure, that this is a problem that needs centralized "solving".

I don't want anyone tell me, how much children I can or should have.

We got to make sure the work life balance is in order for people to have the time and money to afford a family and give adequate support like daycare etc.

But apart from that, I really don't like some buerocrats in some buerau somewhere calculating the "correct" number of births. That regulates itself. There is immigration and emigration. There is automatisation (elderly care), better medicine, so older people can tend to themself longer and less need of a "dumb" workforce etc. etc.

Trying to calculate it and declare meassures based that, can only fail in my opinion.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#87

Post by jcranmer »

infinity0 wrote: post #41
Clewza313 wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

China internally makes a big deal about their 56 ethnic groups, living happily in harmony: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ethnic_minorities_in_China And woe betide anyone who dares be less than harmonious about being ruled by their Han big brother.

You seem to have a bit of sour grapes that a non-Western country dares to talk positively about their own policies. You should understand that translations often lose some cultural context, so when you have a prejudice against the English word "harmonious", understand that the Chinese equivalent is used much more freely in everyday speech. "Solidarity" might have been a better translation. -- Reply to the comment bel…

I recall that, in the 2008 Olympics opening ceremony, China celebrated its ethnic minorities by having Han children dress up as them instead of letting any ethnic minorities represent themselves.

I don't think "harmonious" or "solidarity" or whatever other positive word you come up with would be an accurate representation of the relations of ethnic minorities. Especially if you were to ask the ethnic minorities themselves to come up with a word.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#88

Post by dalbasal »

At this point, it seems that China's family planning policies aren't really directly related to population growth anymore. No policy/restrictions at all would probably not meaningfully impact gross population growth.

It's just about maintaining family planning as a public prerogative, atthis point.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#89

Post by bsenftner »

I wonder about stories like this, how much western propaganda they are composed. I've been to China, and observed this number of children policy to be completely ignored outside their major cities. It is not uncommon to see large families with 5-8 kids in their farming and areas of less population.

Re: China allows couples to have three children

#90

Post by hutzlibu »

axiosgunnar wrote: post #78
woutr_be wrote: post #58

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It generally wasn’t strictly enforced anyway, as in, if you had a second child, you could pay a fine, and legally register your child. And yes, it didn’t apply to rural areas as well. I had a friend in China who lived in Shenzhen and has 3 children, he essentially just payed two fines (not even sure how much it was).

Must give parents leverage when arguing with a child „I paid a 50000 yuan fine for you just so you could live! Now do your homework!“

I doubt that works.

Every parent spends lots of money on their children. It should be a gift, not a dept.

Post reply on HN