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Bitcoin Miner does the math, calls it quits

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11–20 of 101 posts

Re: Bitcoin Miner does the math, calls it quits

#11

This isn't really news. I did the math a month ago and came to the same conclusion. That I could probably make a little money if I don't mind heating up my house (costing more in AC costs) and dealing with the noise of the computers running all the time. The projected profits, at the prices that day, were pretty sad. A week later I learned that the better the machines and programs get at producing bitcoins, the harde…

Why buy a new machine after 3 months? Once it makes back it's cost, wouldn't you still be able to earn money from it so long as it can cover the cost of running and storing it?

No, because of the increased difficulty. However, nobody said anything about buying a new machine. It should be sufficient to upgrade the graphics processor...

Re: Bitcoin Miner does the math, calls it quits

#12
post #6

What's interesting, is that this is what should happen. Since Bitcoins are generated at a constant rate (from my understanding) regardless of how many people are working on them, the market should eventually even out so that its a break-even at best. Likely it will be a little worse than break-even, because there are always some people out there willing to attempt to generate coins even if what they are doing doesn't…

In fact, it's worse than that, because the global rate of BTC production goes down over time. After 2025, hardly any new bitcoins will be generated. https://secure.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/wiki/Bitcoin#Monet...

Re: Bitcoin Miner does the math, calls it quits

#13
post #6

What's interesting, is that this is what should happen. Since Bitcoins are generated at a constant rate (from my understanding) regardless of how many people are working on them, the market should eventually even out so that its a break-even at best. Likely it will be a little worse than break-even, because there are always some people out there willing to attempt to generate coins even if what they are doing doesn't…

If I remember correctly, they are being generated at an (decreasing) exponential rate, i.e. first n years 7 million, next n years 3.5 million, etc...

Re: Bitcoin Miner does the math, calls it quits

#14
post #6

What's interesting, is that this is what should happen. Since Bitcoins are generated at a constant rate (from my understanding) regardless of how many people are working on them, the market should eventually even out so that its a break-even at best. Likely it will be a little worse than break-even, because there are always some people out there willing to attempt to generate coins even if what they are doing doesn't…

Bitcoins are not generated at a constant rate. The difficulty of generating bitcoins increases exponentially over time, so the number of bitcoins generated by the pool (assuming the pool remains the same size) will decrease accordingly.

However the pool didn't remain the same in the past. All the BTC press (and $10 USD rate) substantially increased the number of people mining. This sped up the discovery of bitcoins but it also gave each miner a smaller cut.

At this point the only way to mine a non-trivial amount of BTC is to invest $ in a GPU-heavy mining rig.

Re: Bitcoin Miner does the math, calls it quits

#15

This isn't really news. I did the math a month ago and came to the same conclusion. That I could probably make a little money if I don't mind heating up my house (costing more in AC costs) and dealing with the noise of the computers running all the time. The projected profits, at the prices that day, were pretty sad. A week later I learned that the better the machines and programs get at producing bitcoins, the harde…

Why buy a new machine after 3 months? Once it makes back it's cost, wouldn't you still be able to earn money from it so long as it can cover the cost of running and storing it?

Because as everyone else joins and upgrades, the difficulty of mining gets increased to match, and after a few months that machine is no longer efficient enough to pay for its electricity and cooling.

Re: Bitcoin Miner does the math, calls it quits

#16

This isn't really news. I did the math a month ago and came to the same conclusion. That I could probably make a little money if I don't mind heating up my house (costing more in AC costs) and dealing with the noise of the computers running all the time. The projected profits, at the prices that day, were pretty sad. A week later I learned that the better the machines and programs get at producing bitcoins, the harde…

Why buy a new machine after 3 months? Once it makes back it's cost, wouldn't you still be able to earn money from it so long as it can cover the cost of running and storing it?

Only if more performance/watt machines haven't driven the output of your machines below the cost of electricity.

Re: Bitcoin Miner does the math, calls it quits

#17
post #9
post #8

Now that the hype is dying down, maybe people will start thinking more about how to make bitcoin easier and more available and less about how they can profit off of mining and trading.

Start? People have been thinking (and working) on that even before the hype began (see for example the Android client now on the frontpage, or the new client UI being developed, wallet encryption being tested now, and various web payment services), it just gets drowned in all the trolling, mining related talk and price speculation.

What you call "trolling," others call "pointing out the obvious flaws in an unsustainable system."

Re: Bitcoin Miner does the math, calls it quits

#18
Power and wifi are free at many coffee shops and fast food joints. When I'm in one, spending the time between my work and martial arts training group, I mine on my laptop. If I were especially ambitious, I'd bring a tower with a bunch of ATI cards in it; but the McDonalds manager might complain when the lights dim.

Re: Bitcoin Miner does the math, calls it quits

#19
post #6

What's interesting, is that this is what should happen. Since Bitcoins are generated at a constant rate (from my understanding) regardless of how many people are working on them, the market should eventually even out so that its a break-even at best. Likely it will be a little worse than break-even, because there are always some people out there willing to attempt to generate coins even if what they are doing doesn't…

Bitcoins are not generated at a constant rate. The difficulty of generating bitcoins increases exponentially over time, so the number of bitcoins generated by the pool (assuming the pool remains the same size) will decrease accordingly. However the pool didn't remain the same in the past. All the BTC press (and $10 USD rate) substantially increased the number of people mining. This sped up the discovery of bitcoins b…

The difficulty of generating bitcoins increases exponentially over time

No, it changes in proportion to the number of blocks generated in the past week or two. This could even result in a decrease if the number of miners decrease.

Re: Bitcoin Miner does the math, calls it quits

#20
post #17
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Start? People have been thinking (and working) on that even before the hype began (see for example the Android client now on the frontpage, or the new client UI being developed, wallet encryption being tested now, and various web payment services), it just gets drowned in all the trolling, mining related talk and price speculation.

What you call "trolling," others call "pointing out the obvious flaws in an unsustainable system."

Replace "trolling" with anything you want, how you call it doesn't figure into my argument at all.
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