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What a Wuhan lab leak would mean

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Re: What a Wuhan lab leak would mean

#21

Post by bayesian_horse »

daenz wrote: post #6

>Bear in mind researchers in Wuhan were combining snippets from strains of bat coronaviruses to increase virulence, injecting viruses into “humanised” mice, testing how diseases can jump the species barrier and creating chimeric diseases using cloning techniques that show no sign of human manipulation. Can someone explain to me in layperson's terms what the purpose of this is, and why the risk of a global pandemic wi…

As far as I understood it there is no evidence they did anything of the sort.

And even if they did, they probably attempted to combine viruses from two non-human species and then they probably didn't conceive the possibility that this chimeric virus would be transmissible to Humans, escape and then cause a pandemic. If this is actually what happened, that's a miracle in itself.

Re: What a Wuhan lab leak would mean

#22

Post by bayesian_horse »

runawaybottle wrote: post #17
jjazwiecki wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is as far as my lay understanding goes: the idea was that you could better handle potential outbreaks by creating potential outbreaks in a lab, and studying them there. If you have bad priors ("we have perfect protocols, because we've never caused a global pandemic") I could see how you'd get to this being a net positive: there will be another pandemic, probably involving one of these, so let's study it before i…

We need to do this research on the Moon/Mars/Underwater/Arctic/Desert. Not in a city with millions of people. You know, now that I just typed that out, I’m becoming more and more convinced common sense was lacking when it comes to that Wuhan Lab. Something simple most likely happened because the common sense just wasn’t there. Edit: Here are the articles related to lab leaks before 2015 (these articles were posted be…

Hindsight is 20/20.

Whatever really happened, there never was a vial in that lab that said "potentially pandemic virus - handle with extreme care". Even if the virus came from (or rather through) a lab, there is no evidence what the researcher's actual intentions were. We don't even know which researchers were responsible.

Re: What a Wuhan lab leak would mean

#23

Post by tremon »

primis wrote: post #9

This article attempts and fails to keep a neutral point of view on this theory. Instead, it heavily implies that a wuhan lab leak is the most likely source, citing Occam's razor as a rationale. Just because we haven't identified with certainty the cross animal with bats doesn't mean the most likely explanation is a massive Chinese coverup.

What's this supposed "neutrality" that you're seeking? I didn't get from the article what you're reading into it.

To me, the central point of the article is this paragraph:

> These events highlight three significant scientific issues exposed by the pandemic that need tackling regardless of the origins: a dismal WHO leadership and structure not up to the task of protecting public safety; the collusion of a scientific establishment that sought to shut down debate rather than follow evidence; and the shredding of the reputations of some key journals that failed to promote free debate based on facts.

Isn't your comment here exactly doing what the article is lamenting, shutting down debate based on your interpretation of the text?

Re: What a Wuhan lab leak would mean

#24

Post by bayesian_horse »

primis wrote: post #12
daenz wrote: post #6

>Bear in mind researchers in Wuhan were combining snippets from strains of bat coronaviruses to increase virulence, injecting viruses into “humanised” mice, testing how diseases can jump the species barrier and creating chimeric diseases using cloning techniques that show no sign of human manipulation. Can someone explain to me in layperson's terms what the purpose of this is, and why the risk of a global pandemic wi…

Research labs attempt artifical evolution of viruses and bacteria under extremely controlled situations in order to attempt to find cures preemptively. They also identify symptoms and severity before natural evolution has a chance outside the lab to create these novel pandemics itself.

The other point is that such research usually targets non-human species. Say, they try to adapt a bat-virus to a ferret.

The idea that such a virus is transmissible to Humans, escapes and causes a pandemic is something of a miracle in itself. If it actually happened that way, which I don't believe right now.

Re: What a Wuhan lab leak would mean

#25

Post by m4burns »

99_00 wrote: post #11
benjohnson wrote: post #5

Nothing. Because we Americans funded the lab. So the combined propaganda power of both the CCP and the USA will make this a non-issue. Everybody is also going to think I'm nuts - but we should be very very thankful that the first airplane tranported pandemic was so mild. It's prepared us for something that could be vastly worse.

"funded the lab" This can mean anything from fully funding it to giving it some small amount of money and having no real control or transparency, or even funding people from the lab to do research in America. Can you provide a source?

For example, this 2019 NIH grant awarded to Ecohealth Alliance Inc.: https://reporter.nih.gov/project-details/9819304

This is part of a series of ongoing projects that have received NIH funding over the last 7 years. Ecohealth, in turn, funds WIV: https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-02473-4

Re: What a Wuhan lab leak would mean

#26

Post by benjohnson »

99_00 wrote: post #11
benjohnson wrote: post #5

Nothing. Because we Americans funded the lab. So the combined propaganda power of both the CCP and the USA will make this a non-issue. Everybody is also going to think I'm nuts - but we should be very very thankful that the first airplane tranported pandemic was so mild. It's prepared us for something that could be vastly worse.

"funded the lab" This can mean anything from fully funding it to giving it some small amount of money and having no real control or transparency, or even funding people from the lab to do research in America. Can you provide a source?

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/search/research-news/9563/

Frankly, it was probably good research. If it did escape, it's not a particular China problem - viruses have escaped labs over and over all over the world.

I know of one lab here in the US that has a onsite fourteen day quarantine every time you leave the work area - you can imagine that it's not a popular place to work.

Re: What a Wuhan lab leak would mean

#27

Post by gremlinsinc »

bayesian_horse wrote: post #16

There is not one "lab leak theory", there are quite a few distinct possibilities. The problem is that the nutcases ran with the one that said China was working on weaponizing this exact virus and then it leaked. But there are other explanations for lab workers getting sick. They could have been working on samples of this virus without knowing it, and not taken enough precautions. They could have infected themselves o…

> And still, any deliberate attempt to weaponize a Corona virus would be unlikely and require much more evidence. Certain other pathogens, maybe, but not something that has pandemic potential. It just doesn't make sense.

I'll say first, I'm not a right-wing nut - I'm leftist/socialist and I'm not saying it was a lab leak, but I can see a BIG reason for china to release a pandemic.

China is on the cusp of becoming the #1 super power, a pandemic could distract other nations while it raises even more it's economic power. It seems china has faired pretty damn well over the pandemic. China could care less about fatalities, or even world support. If it cared about world support it wouldn't have UYGHURS in prison camps.

China doesn't want mass casualties (more mass than covid anyhow), if they want world domination they need survivors to rule, so a pandemic virus with the features of covid seems perfect, or maybe it was just a social experiment to see what the world would do during a pandemic.

Pandemic could also weaken local countries they might be eyeing to take over - like Taiwan, even though they handled it pretty well there, but others like India maybe?

Or maybe it was just an accidental leak, but they were still experimenting with it from a "potential weapon" - standpoint. Whether you fire a missile on purpose or accidental there's still repercussions following.

Re: What a Wuhan lab leak would mean

#28

Post by gremlinsinc »

pgrote wrote: post #3

>possibly that the entire Communist apparatus of control might crumble amid intense public anger. I am ignorant of Chinese attitudes toward their government, but why would this be one of the effects? China officially had few cases and deaths from covid-19. They were heavy handedly effective at stopping it from gaining traction. Why would a lie about the origin cause Chinese citizens to rise up?

Most chinese citizens would never even have access to the truth about said lie, many more are not educated enough to reason about it, therefore it's a moot point. It'll never happen. China isn't going to have a civil war except in maybe Hong Kong but they'll lose.

Re: What a Wuhan lab leak would mean

#29

Post by Amezarak »

bayesian_horse wrote: post #24
primis wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Research labs attempt artifical evolution of viruses and bacteria under extremely controlled situations in order to attempt to find cures preemptively. They also identify symptoms and severity before natural evolution has a chance outside the lab to create these novel pandemics itself.

The other point is that such research usually targets non-human species. Say, they try to adapt a bat-virus to a ferret. The idea that such a virus is transmissible to Humans, escapes and causes a pandemic is something of a miracle in itself. If it actually happened that way, which I don't believe right now.

Researchers at the Wuhan Institute of Virology were engaged in gain-of-function and serial passage research, but it is also a matter of public record that they were targeting human hosts in collaboration with others, as well.

> Early in 2016, Baric and Shi again collaborated. Shi sent Baric a fresh bat virus spike protein, and Baric inserted it into the backbone of a human SARS virus and then used that infectious clone to attack human airway cells. “The virus readily and efficiently replicated in cultured human airway tissues, suggesting an ability to potentially jump directly to humans,” reported the UNC’s website.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/coronavirus-lab-esca...

As for why people engage in research that has such enormous downside risks - well, they want grant money and to keep getting paid. I'm sure they think - 'it's ok, I'm careful', just like anyone else engaging in such behavior, even though there's a long history of lab leaks leading to serious problems.

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