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The media's lab leak fiasco

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Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#381
post #136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we accept that taking action against misinformation is good, then this sort of mistake will inevitably happen. If you're in favor of taking action against misinformation, then you should be willing to accept this situation as an acceptable failure. I'm not willing to accept that.

Except it was never misinformation. It's always been not only plausible, but the null hypothesis given the location of the lab, the nature of research there, and the early cases along the train line. When Jack banned zerohedge for their article, there were other reasons than "misinformation". Only he and his masters know those reasons.

That's not what "null hypothesis" means.

The null hypothesis in this case is certainly animal origin. The idea of a null hypothesis is to identify what the data would look like if they are purely due to chance, if there's no intervening effect to be discovered.

In fact this is part of what makes the lab leak hypothesis weak: it'll be difficult to rule out the null hypothesis without fairly direct evidence of a lab leak, and the lab leak has low probability for many reasons, not least of which is that it's a low probability occurrence in general.

The whole idea is just an excuse for people to larp as CIA analysts.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#382
post #224

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What incentive would the US government have to lie about this though? The US government hasn't even made any statement. > They were funding research at that lab, I don't understand why they would want people to think lab leak is correct all of a sudden - if that's what you're claiming? No they weren't? You need to either get off the internet until you turn 18 or learn some serious critical thinking skills. The fact…

Yes they were, NIH grants went to WIV. Here is a government science website saying as much: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/search/research-news/9563/ It went through a non-profit, but trust me there is careful accounting of where money goes with NIH grants, there is no way the government was not aware that some of it's money was funding research at WIV. Especially because they suspended the funding once COVID blew up,…

Note that the NIH funding was cancelled under the Trump administration. That administration also attacked its own public health officials, denied the science, catastrophically failed in its response, and was generally incompetent. There's no reason to believe the cancellation was anything other than posturing for political reasons, coming from an Oval Office that never stopped referring to COVID-19 as the "Chinese Virus" while pushing hydroxychloroquine and suggesting that a cure was as simple as shoving a flashlight up your butt while drinking bleach.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm just going to say it - no one in their right mind would want Donald Trump leading a military war against our strongest frenemy in the world. You don't have to hate Trump to admit that he lacks complex strategy and communication skills, as well as a very week, if not incompetent, cabinet. Politically speaking, being in a "justified war" would have done nothing but hurt the democrats chances. It's hard to unseat a…

Genuinely curious, are you indicating that the current POTUS is better qualified to be leading potentially that same military action?

Yes, not that I want him to kick one off either though. His cabinet is no nonsense, he has 8 years in office working with the top mill brass already, and also he doesn't tweet the first thing on his mind. It seems like an inocuous jab, but let's not forget Trump literally tweeted a classified intel picture from our mill satellites. That's the type of incompetence that can't be tolerated.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#385
post #110

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So you’re saying you formed an important opinion on a impactful topic without reviewing the evidence? Maybe you should change that

There was no evidence to review. Even now the whole reason we are having this discussion is because over a year later there has still not been an adequate investigation and lots of statements made early on have since been shown to be false. And frankly, in the absence of evidence, some guy getting sick from bad meat at a market is a much simpler explanation than an artificially created virus escaped from an instituti…

There was plenty of evidence from the start.[1] There isn’t really much new evidence now, the only thing that changed is that Trump is gone.

[1] https://project-evidence.github.io/

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#386

Am I the only one who feels like this is mostly a non-issue. I feel like the case of if this came from a lab for from a market is mostly taking a political side against China - if it came from a lab, or for China - if it was naturally developed. If it came from a Chinese lab as part of a conscious effort of weaponizing a virus, sure, that's important, but I don't think anyone is saying that. If it came from a lab acc…

The virus had global implications with a massive economic and global impact. If a single institution was responsible for this event then it would be clear that we need to improve regulations and safety standards around the entire field of gain of function research. If a lab leak is a possible explanation, the implication for future gain of function research and associated regulations are massive. It's not as simple a…

If we can entertain the possibility that this disaster came from gain of function research then surely that field should be reconsidered regardless of what actually happened in this particular case.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#387

Am I the only one who feels like this is mostly a non-issue. I feel like the case of if this came from a lab for from a market is mostly taking a political side against China - if it came from a lab, or for China - if it was naturally developed. If it came from a Chinese lab as part of a conscious effort of weaponizing a virus, sure, that's important, but I don't think anyone is saying that. If it came from a lab acc…

To answer your question before my unprompted musing, I agree. I think the majority of people won't get anything out of understanding the nitty-gritty detail of this discourse, and will spend a lot of energy fending off bipartisan "WE TOLD U SO" bickering along the way. However, appropriate authorities should keep working on the problem, even if just to determine that there's no data to get to the bottom of this at all.

> but I don't think anyone is saying that.

Part of the timeline that seems to miss from some discussions, including the article brought by the OP, is that Donald Trump did in fact make that sort of statements, on several occasions[1], even though you unlikely mean that the same way. While e.g. Cotton's words have not been treated with due rigour by some journalistic media outlets, the social media platform crackdown on the associated terms, in my memory, did happen after Trump's statements had a measurable hate crime effect.

[1] The earliest example - https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-trump-...

> “But we’re going to find out. You’ll be learning in the not-too-distant future. But it’s a terrible thing that happened - whether they made a mistake or whether it started off as a mistake and then they made another one. Or did somebody do something on purpose?” he said.

In my subjective opinion, the conversation in general both was and still is overall chaotic, often conflating at least some of the following:

1. Natural virus transmitted from source animal. Sensible zoonosis scenario.

2. Natural virus transmitted from "incubating" animal. Sensible zoonosis, again.

3. Natural virus leaving lab due to a storage safety failure. Sensible lab accident scenario.

4. Natural virus leaving lab due to an operations safety failure. Sensible lab accident scenario.

5. Natural virus modified successfully by the lab, doing 3-4. Often deemed less likely, but nonetheless a fundamentally sensible scenario.

6. Natural virus modified successfully by the lab, intentionally released from the lab by the Chinese government. Sometimes this flavour also implies that the virus was modified not with gain-of-function research goal, but with biological warfare goals straight up. Feels the same thing on paper, but in terms of language used the latter is substantially more visceral, evoking defensive reaction. Either way, this does not make any much sense, given economic stakes. CCP may have a heavy-handed enforcement of their interests, but they count their own money better than anyone else.

7. Artificially created virus, doing a 3 or 4. Sometimes with intentionality implication. There doesn't seem to be any significant research supporting this as a plausible scenario.

8. Intentionally (to harm the proverbial West) designed artificial virus, doing a 6. Straight up Tom Clancy's book material.

I've seen "lab leak" applied by some journalists to anything from 3 to 8 including. The problem here is that 6-8 predominantly are political rallying calls for a base eager for a confrontation with China, potentially to detract from anticipated fallout from the domestic containment effort. Much easier to say "woe betide us, this sophisticated oriental bioweapon", than to say "well we have this entire government agency designed to handle this, but everything we've done has fallen flat". The end result of this final bunch of theories was a spike of anti-Asian hate crimes, e.g., someone in my town got imprisoned for anti-Chinese hatred incitement. The last case like that in my memory was in the noughts.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#389
post #5

Reminder that Facebook and Twitter banned users for talking about the lab-leak theory. Youtube accounts also got demontized/banned.

Remember - people were called fascists + racists for mentioning or discussing the lab leak theory.

Remember, the discussion of the lab leak theory is strongly correlated with a rise in hate crimes against Asian-Americans. There were also lots of links made between the lab leak theory and needing to tighten immigration policies to keep out "undesirables".

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#390
post #196
post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current the major concern is the Indian mutation. But we are not allowed to call it the Chinese or Wuhan virus.

Pretty simple to refer to it as COVID, no? West Nile Virus was named in 1937, so hard to really say it's equivalent. Ebola is named after a river, I doubt it gets offended by the association. MERS is widely acknowledged as a mistake in naming by the WHO.

But it did originate in China, no?

And the Chinese government did hide critical data from the WHO and international partners to save face, no?

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