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The media's lab leak fiasco

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Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#181

Post by makomk »

cratermoon wrote: post #140
adolph wrote: post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The zoonotic spillover doesn't seem to address geography. Why would the virus first appear in a city near a virology institute instead of out in the country near bat habitats? The speculation from scientists like Dr. Daszak is that someone ate an infected live bat from "southern China." I've seen the studies about air flows in restaurants and buffets and none seem to indicate that Covid is food borne. So we have some…

> Why would the virus first appear in a city near a virology institute instead of out in the country near bat habitats? Have you considered the possibility that it first appeared in the vicinity of a lab that experiments on similar viruses is because if it had appeared elsewhere, there would have been no sufficiently-equipped lab to isolate it? This is the streetlight effect: you find things where you (are able to) l…

Pretty sure this doesn't make sense at all. If I remember rightly, the way Covid-19 was originally identified was that two or three different private sector labs which don't normally work with this kind of virus at all managed to sequence it well enough to identify what it was - it had nothing to do with the virology institute. Not only that, the fact that they weren't officially meant to be handling this kind of virus was used to shut them up and get them to destroy the virus sequences they'd found.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#182

Post by wpietri »

andybak wrote: post #6
deadalus wrote: post #5

Reminder that Facebook and Twitter banned users for talking about the lab-leak theory. Youtube accounts also got demontized/banned.

I'm generally in favour of the actions taken against misinformation but this situation surprises me. Lab leak always seemed plausible and non-crazy even if you think the odds are against it. I don't envy the task of making a call on any of this stuff.

I'm not sure whether it's plausible to non-experts like you or me is a valuable way to categorize it. But the reason to be cautious about it is the potential for violence. Both at an individual level against people perceived as Asian and at a global level of a hot war. A good example here is after 9/11. The US had a rash of violence against people who people thought looked Muslim, like the Sikh gas station owner Balbir Singh Sodhi [1]. We ended up invading not just Afghanistan but Iraq and we still haven't brought all the troops home.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Murder_of_Balbir_Singh_Sodhi

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#183

Post by [deleted] »

greedo wrote: post #60
908B64B197 wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Interesting how media coverage completely changed. Under the previous administration it was considered racist to even mention the theory and it's proponents were considered racists or conspiracy theorists. Why such a sudden change? China certainly didn't change its position on the issue...

There's a world of difference in considering this theory, and with calling it the "Asian Flu" or "Kung Flu" etc. One act addressed what happened, the other tars entire nations/cultures/regions with a wide brush.

[deleted]

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#184

Post by [deleted] »

SCUSKU wrote: post #174
arduinomancer wrote: post #137

I hate how it feels like there's such a "collective narrative" for everything now days with the internet. Whenever I talk to people about recent news stories in real life it feels like everyone is just repeating talking points they read online. Its like we've been absorbed into the internet consciousness and talking to a person is like talking to "the internet brain".

Absolutely. Discussion with friends about the goings ons of the world frequently just turns into taking turns regurgitating what we can recall from NPR and NYT's The Daily.

[deleted]

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#185

Post by dougmwne »

RV86 wrote: post #107

IMO, determining the origin of the virus is of much more consequence than who was right and who was wrong back in 2020. If the virus crossed over naturally, it's reasonable to conjecture that this sort of thing is going to happen more and more often in the future. If it was human error in a lab, I would actually be relieved -- this seems like something that's much easier to correct. FWIW, I do think available evidenc…

I agree that it's extremely important. If it was a lab leak, there are many safety process and regulation improvements we might be highly motivated to make. It's a thing we can actually have some control over. If it was a natural virus, there's good reason to collect and study more pathogens so we have a head start if one of them crosses into humans. Not that both of these things aren't good responses to the pandemic, but having a specific answer will direct more funding at the problem.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#187

Post by contemporary343 »

danboarder wrote: post #12

One problem with politically charged issues is that one's bias can significantly color unresolved factual issues. In the article the early 'red flags' pointed out in the January 2020 study by The Lancet left clear open questions regarding the Seafood Market hypothesis, but many in the media glossed over these red flags. Now that additional facts are coming to light including the fact that multiple scientists at the l…

Weren't scientists from the Chinese CDC actually authors of the Lancet article that everyone cited? It doesn't seem like they were trying to push any seafood market hypothesis either.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#188

Post by asdff »

SCUSKU wrote: post #174
arduinomancer wrote: post #137

I hate how it feels like there's such a "collective narrative" for everything now days with the internet. Whenever I talk to people about recent news stories in real life it feels like everyone is just repeating talking points they read online. Its like we've been absorbed into the internet consciousness and talking to a person is like talking to "the internet brain".

Absolutely. Discussion with friends about the goings ons of the world frequently just turns into taking turns regurgitating what we can recall from NPR and NYT's The Daily.

It's ironic to even call those experiences discussions when no new ideas are exchanged. It's just people of the same worldview taking turns chanting verses of their creed. Nothing learned nor imparted.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#189

Post by asciimov »

andybak wrote: post #6
deadalus wrote: post #5

Reminder that Facebook and Twitter banned users for talking about the lab-leak theory. Youtube accounts also got demontized/banned.

I'm generally in favour of the actions taken against misinformation but this situation surprises me. Lab leak always seemed plausible and non-crazy even if you think the odds are against it. I don't envy the task of making a call on any of this stuff.

If your pursuing a misinformation campaign it does make since to occasionally publish some facts. That way people can wring their hands if they should ban you or not, and so your supporters have something to say that you were right about.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#190

Post by dbt00 »

fastball wrote: post #21
dbt00 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with this thinking is assuming the government of China actually knows the truth and is acting to protect itself from a dangerous reveal. They might not have known then (or now!) and are simply acting based on some probability it could be true, default secrecy, and organizational fear.

This seems less plausible. Presumably the PRC knows exactly what kind of research was happening in Wuhan. It should be fairly clear to anyone who worked in that lab if COVID-19 came from there.

The PRC is made up of people, some of whom may or may not tell each other the truth, or may or may not know the truth of what they say. Just like any other organization made up of people.

I don't know if COVID leaked from a lab or not. I think it's possible and very much worth investigating. What I'm against is these kind of "social proof" arguments which can seem convincing but are are often vacuous.

Investigate the evidence. Pressure the PRC to show their records and allow external investigations. Publicly bluster that refusal to open up in the face of legitimate questions should be considered evidence of culpability if they refuse to open up! But don't actually consider a repressive government being repressive by default as actual proof of anything.

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