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The media's lab leak fiasco

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Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#141

Post by cratermoon »

sauwan wrote: post #94
cratermoon wrote: post #29

"If the question is “are both hypotheses possible?” the answer is yes. Both are possible. If the question is “are they equally likely?” the answer is absolutely not. One hypothesis requires a colossal cover-up and the silent, unswerving, leak-proof compliance of a vast network of scientists, civilians, and government officials for over a year. The other requires only for biology to behave as it always has, for a fami…

If the CCP didn't have such a startling surveillance system and tight grip over any international narrative, I'd be inclined to agree with you. But they have done themselves no favors in their handling of the situation. I'm not sure the coverup would require a vast network of people. Maybe 1-2 dozen in a lab, max, (depending on who knew which experiments were being done) and a bunch of CCP members who I would not be…

> If the CCP didn't have such a startling surveillance system and tight grip over any international narrative

and yet not so startling and tight that we don't have leaks and we don't know they have a surveillance system and don't like leaks.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#142

Post by cratermoon »

johncena33 wrote: post #119
cratermoon wrote: post #97

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Have you considered the possibility that it first appeared in the vicinity of a lab that experiments on similar viruses is because if it had appeared elsewhere, there would have been no sufficiently-equipped lab to isolate it? This is the streetlight effect: you find things where you (are able to) look for them. In other words, it couldn't have appeared somewhere far from a properly-equipped lab, because there would…

> Have you considered the possibility that it first appeared in the vicinity of a lab that experiments on similar viruses is because if it had appeared elsewhere, there would have been no sufficiently-equipped lab to isolate it? You are essentially arguing for lab leak theory. Initially there was only one cluster of COVID and that was at Wuhan. That's why lab leak hypothesis is more plausible. It was not the case tha…

The initial cluster was found at Wuhan, because there's a lab there. We have no idea how many sub-pandemic clusters arose and fell before this particular mutation got into a population sufficiently dense and mobile to spread it.

Did you know that 1918 flu arose in Haskell County, Kansas, killed many, and then just .. died out? https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC340389/

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#144

Post by hjek »

Didn't recognize the author until near the end:

> My position on China is we need “One Billion Americans” in order to stay number one forever, and I’m not going to change that view.

Current Affairs has an interesting article on the author's peculiar form of liberal nationalism[0].

[0]: https://www.currentaffairs.org/2020/11/why-nationalism-is-a-...

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#145

Post by zdragnar »

cratermoon wrote: post #97
zdragnar wrote: post #80

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The cover up didn't need to be colossal, just for everyone to point to occams razor and call anyone with a hint of curiosity a racist. The fact that the origin of the outbreak appears to be in the same vicinity as a lab that experiments on similar viruses alone is sufficient reason to want a thorough investigation. Otherwise, the odds that nature produced such a virus, in such a location, make for a crazy coincidence…

Have you considered the possibility that it first appeared in the vicinity of a lab that experiments on similar viruses is because if it had appeared elsewhere, there would have been no sufficiently-equipped lab to isolate it? This is the streetlight effect: you find things where you (are able to) look for them. In other words, it couldn't have appeared somewhere far from a properly-equipped lab, because there would…

Plenty of virii have their origins traced to initial outbreaks where there are not labs.

Using this as a justification to not investigate the possibility of a lab leak is wishful thinking at best.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#146

Post by roveo »

dylan604 wrote: post #45
dbt00 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The problem with this thinking is assuming the government of China actually knows the truth and is acting to protect itself from a dangerous reveal. They might not have known then (or now!) and are simply acting based on some probability it could be true, default secrecy, and organizational fear.

Isn't this basically the default behavior of China and/or other communist/dictator countries? I just rewatched HBO's Chernobyl, and that was the underlying premise about how badly the gov't wanted the thing to be played down until it was just too much to hide. The superiority of those in charge cannot be brought into disrepute in any way. Same thing with COVID-19. I just think that Bejing has a tighter grip on things…

Well. The upper estimates for Chernobyl-related deaths is 6000. Legasov's projections in the 80s cited 40000. That's nothing compared to COVID, and COVID is more global for sure (meaning that most people in most coutries experienced the effects of the pandemic on themselves).

Nuclear disaster sound scary, but COVID is actually objectively scarier.

(Not sure which way you meant the comparison goes)

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#147

Post by estaseuropano »

yawaworht1978 wrote: post #37

Call me cynical...but... What would any government do about it if it was proven to be a lab leak? They could declare it an accident (probably this would be true) and that would be the end of the story. No country would dare to impose sanctions or engage beyond diplomacy. I do not think that the Chinese governments reaction or handling of the case is suspect, they likely want to shut down potential fake news. To label…

You miss that china also has internal politics. Not everything is about what the US/western countries think/do/want.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#148

Post by generalizations »

chipotle_coyote wrote: post #40
generalizations wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If we accept that taking action against misinformation is good, then this sort of mistake will inevitably happen. If you're in favor of taking action against misinformation, then you should be willing to accept this situation as an acceptable failure. I'm not willing to accept that.

> If you're in favor of taking action against misinformation, then you should be willing to accept this situation as an acceptable failure. We can believe taking action against misinformation is a generally good principle while still believing that both our definition of "misinformation" and the kinds of actions we take may need to be improved.

You still have to be willing to accept that whatever actions you take against misinformation will occasionally be taken against things that are actually true.

That also means that over time, the credibility of the entities that flag 'misinformation' will inevitably erode: as more people are exposed to things they know, perhaps first-hand, are true, but are flagged as 'misinformation'.

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#149

Post by dang »

Related threads:

Wuhan lab staff sought hospital care before Covid-19 outbreak disclosed - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27259953 - May 2021 (343 comments)

How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27184998 - May 2021 (235 comments)

More Scientists Urge Broad Inquiry into Coronavirus Origins - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27160898 - May 2021 (341 comments)

The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box? - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27071432 - May 2021 (537 comments)

Scientists who say the lab-leak hypothesis for SARS-CoV-2 shouldn't be ruled out - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26750452 - April 2021 (618 comments)

Why the Wuhan lab leak theory shouldn't be dismissed - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=26540458 - March 2021 (985 comments)

The Lab Leak Hypothesis - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25640323 - Jan 2021 (229 comments)

Israeli startup claims Covid-19 likely originated in a lab, willing to bet on it - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25585833 - Dec 2020 (351 comments)

Wuhan lab did research on bat viruses, but no evidence of accidental release - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23070031 - May 2020 (76 comments)

Experts disagree on whether Covid-19 could have leaked from a research lab - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22695825 - March 2020 (6 comments)

Re: The media's lab leak fiasco

#150

Post by dang »

byset wrote: post #109
fsckboy wrote: post #83

Not just the media, folks, also the rest of our "sense making apparatus". Wikipedia has been suppressing lab leak discussion, and still to this moment will not allow the old Lab Leak Hypothesis page back. It still redirects to a declared "Misinformation!" page https://en.wikipedia.org/w/index.php?title=COVID-19_lab_leak... And guess where else lab leak was suppressed? Here on HN. Yes, dang, you suppressed discussion…

"And guess where else lab leak was suppressed? Here on HN." And maybe is still getting suppressed? This post was #1 on HN one minute, and then, less than an hour later, it's down on page 3, ranked #88. Does the HN ranking algorithm really bury stuff that quickly?

It set off the flamewar detector as well as getting a lot of user flags. I've turned that off now.

As for 'suppressed' please see https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27309238.

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