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Tesla loses U.S. designation for some advanced safety features

reuters.com

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Re: Tesla loses U.S. designation for some advanced safety features

#161

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If in July the systems are safe and Beta FSD has improvements are you going to admit you were wrong about these things?

> If in July the systems are safe and Beta FSD has improvements are you going to admit you were wrong about these things? Still waiting for the 2017 coast-to-coast FSD drive. https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/866482406160609280

I'm not saying that FSD was done in 2017. But, How long are you going to hold on to that one? In 2024 when FSD is working really well are you still going to say,

"Yeah I mean it work now, but what about that tweet from 2016"

Re: Tesla loses U.S. designation for some advanced safety features

#162

- Tesla is lacking radar modules due to chip shortage - As a result, Tesla can’t make vehicles - Tesla (as always) is cutting it close to making a profit - Therefore, sell cars without radar - This “profit squeeze” is corroborated by this week’s (May 27) increase in vehicle prices by $500-$2,000, the reintroduction of enhanced autopilot for $4,000 and Elon trying to pump n dump crypto again with his “crypto eco-overs…

I think Tesla is very close to a do-or-die situation. They are in severe danger of being disrupted by the very automakers they took on. If they can't make a profit with the current market conditions (and they haven't, right? their profit is entirely due to credits?), I just don't think it's necessarily going to get any easier as time goes on. EVs are commodities.

I think you're probably right, and I came to believe this strongly when I heard about the electric F-150 a few days ago. If Ford can make a electric truck that works properly and has all the spare parts availability / 3rd party repairability of a normal truck, then cybertruck seems DOA. Some fanboys might buy it for the memes, but if I intended to buy a truck to actually use as a truck, the choice between these two manufacturers would be clear for me.

Re: Tesla loses U.S. designation for some advanced safety features

#163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Tesla is very close to a do-or-die situation. They are in severe danger of being disrupted by the very automakers they took on. If they can't make a profit with the current market conditions (and they haven't, right? their profit is entirely due to credits?), I just don't think it's necessarily going to get any easier as time goes on. EVs are commodities.

> They are in severe danger of being disrupted by the very automakers they took on. The worst part is they’re nowhere near: the effective strength of Tesla is that they built a large and reliable network of fast chargers. I don’t know how non-Tesla charging is in the US, but in Europe it’s still a complete mess of half-assed crap, meaning if you don’t have a Tesla you either simply can’t make trips beyond a single-ch…

> meaning if you don’t have a Tesla you either simply can’t make trips beyond a single-charge round-trips

You’re overestimating how many people make road trips > 200 miles.

Most Americans never leave their hometown, with an even higher percentage who never left their state.

For the middle class family who drives to visit grandma once a year in a different state, they’ll just use their ICE car.

Re: Tesla loses U.S. designation for some advanced safety features

#164

>removing radar sensors to transition to a camera-based Autopilot system A few weeks back, I had a terrible experience while using auto pilot. I was driving on a highway (in CA) with autopilot engaged. For the most part, there was a concrete median on the highway. Suddenly, a section came with no concrete median and a new left only turn lane gets added. For whatever reasons, autopilot thought it is a great idea to su…

I'll trust "auto pilot" the day when legal responsibility is shifted to the manufacturer.

Honestly, a fully autonomous driving car is a pipe dream (KITT I need ya buddy!!!), but with infrastructure and remote support I think it's totally possible. The question is whether there's a will for that.

Re: Tesla loses U.S. designation for some advanced safety features

#165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think Tesla is very close to a do-or-die situation. They are in severe danger of being disrupted by the very automakers they took on. If they can't make a profit with the current market conditions (and they haven't, right? their profit is entirely due to credits?), I just don't think it's necessarily going to get any easier as time goes on. EVs are commodities.

> They are in severe danger of being disrupted by the very automakers they took on. The worst part is they’re nowhere near: the effective strength of Tesla is that they built a large and reliable network of fast chargers. I don’t know how non-Tesla charging is in the US, but in Europe it’s still a complete mess of half-assed crap, meaning if you don’t have a Tesla you either simply can’t make trips beyond a single-ch…

I've been following the situation via a few Youtube folks with non-Tesla charging, and I think your description is a bit exaggerated for the US, but not entirely.

It seems like many routes (not all though) along interstates have enough Electrify America fast chargers that the mere existence is adequate. However, the charging experience is very buggy and unreliable. Cars randomly refuse to charge, charge much slower than they should, etc. And it's not rare, it's likely that this will happen multiple times on a trip, from what I've seen. The videos posted were with the Mach-E and ID.4, so very recent cars.

However, I think as long as these cars sell (and the F-150 lightning does too), this will all get better very quickly. Most of it looks like it should be fixable with software updates, and these companies are all doing OTA updates now.

Re: Tesla loses U.S. designation for some advanced safety features

#166
post #40

This decision from Tesla is going to get people killed. Tesla owners, we should sue Tesla for this. They're going to take away features that influenced our purchasing decision with an OTA update. This should not be allowed.

One reason I sold my P3D was after watching Tesla hose Model S owners I couldn't shake the idea that it was just a matter of time before they decided to take something I care about.

It did not help that I started getting phantom braking at overpasses with some regularity, and the auto wipers were just not ever getting any better.

I've decided I like the old style of car manufacturing better. Turns out I want an appliance, not an experiment.

Re: Tesla loses U.S. designation for some advanced safety features

#167

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> They are in severe danger of being disrupted by the very automakers they took on. The worst part is they’re nowhere near: the effective strength of Tesla is that they built a large and reliable network of fast chargers. I don’t know how non-Tesla charging is in the US, but in Europe it’s still a complete mess of half-assed crap, meaning if you don’t have a Tesla you either simply can’t make trips beyond a single-ch…

> meaning if you don’t have a Tesla you either simply can’t make trips beyond a single-charge round-trips You’re overestimating how many people make road trips > 200 miles. Most Americans never leave their hometown, with an even higher percentage who never left their state. For the middle class family who drives to visit grandma once a year in a different state, they’ll just use their ICE car.

> Most Americans never leave their hometown

This can't possibly be right. Maybe they never move away, but never leave a radius of 200 miles from their home town? Do you have a cite for that?

Re: Tesla loses U.S. designation for some advanced safety features

#168

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As of May 2021, Tesla publicly announced they’re using lidar to develop FSD. https://www.theverge.com/2021/5/24/22451404/tesla-luminar-li...

They haven’t announced anything like that - they’re just using LiDAR rigs to validate data from their vision based approach, particularly distance. It actually even mentions something about it at the bottom of the article you referenced.

My claim:

> they’re using lidar to develop FSD.

Your comment:

> they’re just using LiDAR rigs to validate data from their vision based approach

In 2019, Elon called lidar a crutch:

https://techcrunch.com/2019/04/22/anyone-relying-on-lidar-is...

Re: Tesla loses U.S. designation for some advanced safety features

#169
Considering almost every programm out there has a bug or chronically experiences bugs, it is crazy to trust a programm with driving you car. Fsd without dedicated lanes and pedestrians will never match an able and alert human. Even if it's designed by a far in the future AI, the AI will be built by humans and inherit the flaws.

Why do people even see self driving as the ultimate transport solution? It does not scale, even if vehicles are shared.

Re: Tesla loses U.S. designation for some advanced safety features

#170
post #109

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> However, IMO, it will never happen because it needs a full artificial general intelligence. I think it will happen but only by making many expensive, intrusive changes to our cities and roads to accommodate "self-driving" cars.

I think we still must be missing something very fundamental with the way we’re doing AI. When you look at nature and see a tiny bee or fly navigating perfectly around all sorts of obstacles, including the newspaper I’m trying to swat it with, using just that teeny tiny brain running of mili-watts of power with just compound eyes to guide it. And in 3D space not a nice flat surface. But we still can’t make a car not d…

[ Note: I'm a complete layperson in the AI field, so feel free to correct me. This is mostly based on my penchant for reading topics such as evolutionary biology, Hofstadter, and such. ]

If we used genetic algorithms to design the algorithm, it'd probably be able to get something as efficient as that. However, you're also not going to be able to "fix this one thing" because it's more likely to be the result of emergent behavior from interactions more complicated than anyone can understand. I believe one could get something that works like that, but you're also going to have other behaviors akin to moths flying into lamps because they navigate by the moon which is recognized as "the brightest thing at night".

We think we can make rules for everything and expect them to be followed without exception to perform these complicated tasks, but I think that's hubris. Anything that ends up doing it at that power scale is going to be as inscrutable as a brain. Asimov's robopsychology is then likely to be something real, but it's going to be dissecting neural networks because "fix this issue" on something that took multiple GW of energy to train in the first place will need fixing from that end versus "well, time to train it again".

As an anecdote for this thread, I remember there was some setup where physical circuits were designed via genetic algorithms to do some task. There were results with unconnected resistors that actually influenced the behavior of the circuit. You're generating behavior which is sensitive to that level. Wish I could find that again…

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