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Microsoft president: Orwell’s 1984 could happen in 2024

bbc.co.uk

141–150 of 182 posts

Re: Microsoft president: Orwell’s 1984 could happen in 2024

#141
post #46
post #26

I don't want to cast the central concern as trivial, because it's real, BUT, c'mon, "beating China in AI is imperative?" Grow up. To "beat" anybody (and for that matter to have any sort of claim to deserving to "win" anything), you would want to "beat China at Not-Being-A-Repressive-Dystopia" wouldn't you? Perhaps including "beating China at Not-Using-AI-To-Be-A-Repressive-Dystopia?"

Survailance and drone swarm assassins are two areas to be concerned about.

also AI-assisted protein folding, AI-assisted genetic engineering and what have you.

Re: Microsoft president: Orwell’s 1984 could happen in 2024

#142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Considering that China's current state is a repressive dystopia, it's quite hard to compare the fairly mundane prediction that this will continue to a claim about zombies that contradicts available scientific evidence. I feel like I'm going crazy seeing people make absurd comparisons like this. Do you honestly not see the difference between an inference based on China's current behavior and ... zombies? Are you playi…

> Considering that China's current state is a repressive dystopia Is it? I know that's how it's presented, and it's easy to assume that presentation is accurate, but do most the people living there see it that way? I don't doubt it's a repressive dystopia for those that are repressed, and that's horrible, but does that make it a repressive dystopia overall? Because I'm pretty sure there's quite a number of different…

Of course we can get into a post-modernist post-truth debate, but the facts bring one back to reality: Uighurs, suppression of speech, Hong Kong, military expansion, political influence, the Great Firewall, are all real points making it difficult to keep the discussion on the philosophical level.

Re: Microsoft president: Orwell’s 1984 could happen in 2024

#143
post #136

I recently installed a Chinese-made washing machine in my house. When I bought it, it came with a $100 cashback offer. After installation, it came time to claim that $100, I went to the website, and to my amazement, I had to give up quite a bit of personal information, certainly more than you would expect for the purposes of a washing machine. This information was submitted via a form directly to a Chinese company. S…

Please don't play Dr Strangelove into it.

Re: Microsoft president: Orwell’s 1984 could happen in 2024

#144
post #4

"Welcome to BBC News, America's most trusted news source". A low quality hodgepodge of words, masquerading as an article promoting the BBC's Panorama's Are you Scared Yet, Human? A few low quality choice of quotes: Speaking to BBC's Panorama, Brad Smith said it will be "difficult to catch up” with the rapidly advancing technology. Eric Schmidt, former Google chief executive who is now chair of the US National Securit…

Yes, Schmidt will have a personal interest in beating "China in AI", it's just that I personally have a personal interest in both working to impose their AI on me. So, killing the messenger (here BBC) doesn't do much to clean CCP face.

Re: Microsoft president: Orwell’s 1984 could happen in 2024

#145
post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That is exactly what it is though. If this was 1940 and China was building a nuclear bomb, you wouldn't fight them by disarming yourself and promoting peace. You would build a bigger bomb first. If USA and others tightly regulate tech, and AI advancements in China continue unchecked, then in a few decades there will be no resisting them from doing literally whatever.

"You would build a bigger bomb" Or, you would make the enemy's bomb ineffective. I understand that history went with build a bigger bomb. But honestly, that's not the only option. It's a disservice to everyone to think that arms race is the only answer.

> Or, you would make the enemy's bomb ineffective.

Everything in the nuclear arena is existential, including countermeasures. Hence the treaty limitations on missile defense and mania for “Star Wars” (orbital anti missile systems) in the 80’s.

An advance that checkmates your rival’s nuclear capability could escalate to a preemptive conflict pretty quickly.

Re: Microsoft president: Orwell’s 1984 could happen in 2024

#146
post #142

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Considering that China's current state is a repressive dystopia Is it? I know that's how it's presented, and it's easy to assume that presentation is accurate, but do most the people living there see it that way? I don't doubt it's a repressive dystopia for those that are repressed, and that's horrible, but does that make it a repressive dystopia overall? Because I'm pretty sure there's quite a number of different…

Of course we can get into a post-modernist post-truth debate, but the facts bring one back to reality: Uighurs, suppression of speech, Hong Kong, military expansion, political influence, the Great Firewall, are all real points making it difficult to keep the discussion on the philosophical level.

It doesn't even need to be philosophical. Has China gotten more repressive over time, or less repressive? The first step in a discussion about "beating China at Not-Being-A-Repressive-Dystopia" would be determining which way China is trending, and if there was evidence that will continue or reverse (whether that means more or less repressive).

The other half is which we "we" (whoever we are, there's an international audience, but it's probably safe to say either the U.S. or the west) are trending? We're unlikely to beat China at that no matter what we do if we only focus on them and not ourselves as well.

And to tie it all together, part of not becoming a repressive dystopia ourselves is not trusting the narrative put out about other countries by our government without evidence and looking for reasons why that narrative may be beneficial to put forth other than the truth. Put another way, the first step in protecting your right to question things is to actually question things.

Re: Microsoft president: Orwell’s 1984 could happen in 2024

#147

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The issue is that AI is going to make it even more economical to bombard your target with coherent information through an extremely effective means of influence (writing). Have you seen some of the posts recently about AIs getting better at writing?: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=27032828 It’s much more of a threat than a bogus newspaper. I can imagine a future where the signal is even more drowned out by nois…

It's not just bots writing articles, there are already bots posting in online forums. Most people tend to align with the predominant opinion, and these commenter bots make it seem like the public opinion goes a certain way when it doesn't. Bot-written articles might still have obvious tells, but can you tell if a two-sentence comment was written by a bot? No, you probably can't. And of course, the next level of this…

Detecting bots isn't that hard. You're acting like bots don't already try to advertise to people every day but of course they do, just open your spam folder to see what they're selling. Bots are everywhere trying to sell us things, and they're usually pretty obvious because subtly manipulating people through political spamming (a) probably doesn't work well [1], and (b) isn't profitable, yet spamming costs money.

I worked on bot detection at Google for a while. There are lots of ways to detect them that aren't based on analysing the quality of writing. We were able to get a very long way with a tiny team playing tricks with JavaScript and that was hardly the peak of what's achievable if there were to ever be a real "bot crisis".

At any rate, Brad Smith's argument in the linked news story isn't about bots writing messages to affect politics. He's concerned about the far more plausible problem of bots transcribing everything you say or do inside your own homes and then uploading it to the mothership for analysis. This is a far more plausible problem because "third parties spamming forums" puts well resourced tech firms in the defense position, but Smith's scenario puts them in the adversarial position. And it could happen today. Nothing stops Google pushing a software update that runs their voice recognition models 24/7 in the background and uploads transcripts of things people are saying to their datacenters for sentiment analysis, except maybe that a few geeks would notice battery drain, but no problem, if Google is doing it then most likely there are sympathisers to the cause at other local tech firms who will collaborate to cover it up. Previously even they would have been stopped by the cost, but advances in AI have driven the cost of speech recognition through the floor. It's entirely feasible now to consider recording, transcribing and filtering the entire world's conversations, all the time.

And that's a real problem. When I hear stories from former friends and colleagues who are still at Google I feel I hardly recognize what the company has become. If they're willing to erase people en-masse from their platform and fire workers for pointing out obviously true things (like "SARS-CoV-2 might have leaked from the nearby lab doing experiments on similar viruses" or "women are on average less interested in computers than men"), who knows if or when their employees might decide that e.g. listening in on popular conservative politicians in their own homes is justified? Certainly, Pichai cannot be trusted to reign in these kinds of behaviours if the past 5 years is anything to judge by, nor is there any obvious way to stop them from doing it given the root-like access Play Services has to people's phones.

[1] there are studies trying to spot correlations between political campaign spending vs voting outcomes by district and IIRC they conclude that it works up to a low level, but probably only by informing people there's a vote happening in the first place, and beyond that it hardly seems to matter. Trump beating Clinton despite a 1:2 spending ratio provides a large scale anecdotal example of this effect.

Re: Microsoft president: Orwell’s 1984 could happen in 2024

#149
post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> When 1984 and "Orwellian" are used as a catch-all for any type of oppression or even any type of propaganda, I think it does a great disservice. I agree, but it's not hard to make a stronger case. Organizations like Google, Facebook and Twitter centrally decide Truth, and then penalize anyone who posts anything in conflict with their version. Google censors the videos of people who dare to disagree with e.g. the WH…

At some level you always need a way to filter out noise, so quality have to improve to get signal.

Begging the question. There are highly qualified people like Sucharit Bhakdi who are being declared conspiracy theorists for no other reason than that they are going against officially sanctioned truth. Which is the high-quality signal, the NYT or Bhakdi? One is held up as authoritative by those in power, one is suppressed in the hopes that it will not even be considered. If delusion and propaganda gains prominence, filtering the truth might seem like filtering noise.

Re: Microsoft president: Orwell’s 1984 could happen in 2024

#150
post #114
post #92

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Especially since, with his history in the party and his Jewish name, he's clearly supposed to be a reference to Trotsky. Orwell fought in a Trotskyist militia in Spain and hence is likely to use a Trotsky stand-in to express his own views.

I don't find that clear reference at all.

For a mid-20th-century audience with a passing familiarity with contemporary communist politics, it would have been much clearer than to an arbitrary person today.

Contemporary reviewers were very convinced, and also thought that the written passages from Goldstein's in-universe book were call-outs and/or parodies of specific passages in Trotsky's "The Revolution Betrayed", I don't know enough about that book to comment on parallels, but Orwell's contemporaries did not consider the Goldstein/Trotsky reference especially subtle.

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