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House prices surpass housing-bubble peak on price-to-rent ratio

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21–30 of 139 posts

Re: House prices surpass housing-bubble peak on price-to-rent ratio

#21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The repayments seem to stay about the same but the overall payment is incredibly large. And because getting the % deposit is a big factor in whether you can afford a house, it pushes lower income people out of the market. And if you bought in 1980, the high rates kept the lid on prices. However while you may have started with the same payment but the rates have been steadily ticking down since then. Creating a massiv…

>And because getting the % deposit is a big factor in whether you can afford a house, it pushes lower income people out of the market. Median downpayment is 6%, a common low end is 3%, some places and programs go lower. Median house price sold in 2020 was 347k, well over 25% of houses sell for under 250k [1]. So, for a starter home, saving 3% of say 200k is 6k. If someone can pay this mortgage without killing themsel…

> If someone can pay this mortgage […] then they can save a 6K downpayment

Not if they are paying rent - there would be no surplus every month to save.

Re: House prices surpass housing-bubble peak on price-to-rent ratio

#23
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the main driving factor is very low interest rates and massive amounts of credit. This doesn't tell the whole story. Low interest rates don't make people offer 150k over asking while waiving all contingencies. I'm closing on a home soon and I saw this kind of stuff. I myself went 25k over with all contingencies waived on a condo in a 100 year old multifamily building. Relatively speaking, I was quite lucky to get t…

> Low interest rates don't make people offer 150k over asking while waiving all contingencies Paying above offer always struck me as strange. In my housing market its very common as well, to the point I believe under-pricing the home is intentional. There's no reason the home should be priced considerably below the market price. Sometimes you get it wrong but homes consistently selling above ask tells you the sellers…

It is definitely intentional.

I would disagree with the part about the bidding war. Purchasing works more like a blind auction. Everybody puts in one bid on the offer date. Often buyers agents will avoid situations that can turn into a bidding war, and I got the sense that shopping offers (by sellers) is considered bad form among agents and can lead to reputational damage.

Imo widespread underpricing has more to do with getting eyeballs on Zillow, Redfin, Trulia, etc. People set list prices to show up in searches.

Re: House prices surpass housing-bubble peak on price-to-rent ratio

#24
Rents have been depressed due to eviction moratoriums So I don’t think this metric is useful right now to gauge the housing bubble. The main mistake usually made with housing is not accounting for inflation. Here is a data driven analysis that does: https://realestatedecoded.com/case-shiller

Housing prices will eventually mean revert like they always do. However, interst rates are so low right now that it still can make sense to buy now.

Re: House prices surpass housing-bubble peak on price-to-rent ratio

#25
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the main driving factor is very low interest rates and massive amounts of credit. This doesn't tell the whole story. Low interest rates don't make people offer 150k over asking while waiving all contingencies. I'm closing on a home soon and I saw this kind of stuff. I myself went 25k over with all contingencies waived on a condo in a 100 year old multifamily building. Relatively speaking, I was quite lucky to get t…

> Low interest rates don't make people offer 150k over asking while waiving all contingencies Paying above offer always struck me as strange. In my housing market its very common as well, to the point I believe under-pricing the home is intentional. There's no reason the home should be priced considerably below the market price. Sometimes you get it wrong but homes consistently selling above ask tells you the sellers…

The USA is the only country, I can think of, that allows anyone, from anywhere, to buy our land.

You don't need to be a citizen of this country in order to buy our land? Just money, and a email will buy a house.

The federal government could stop some of the insanity of buying a home, if they just made it a bit harder for foreigners to buy our land?

Isn't the federal governments purpose to put Americans first?

Re: House prices surpass housing-bubble peak on price-to-rent ratio

#26
Clearly there are a lot of variables including interest rates, desire for better space due to Covid lockdowns and more recently FOMO.

One thing that should not be overlooked is the basic economics of supply and demand.

Right now the supply is extremely low compared to much of our historical data. This at the same time as demand has been red hot (due mostly to Covid). Check out the data below, especially over the last year.

https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/MSACSR

We are seeing the same macro level forces impact the used car market. In that case, the supply is off ~30% due to rental car turnover being nonexistent.

Re: House prices surpass housing-bubble peak on price-to-rent ratio

#27
post #20

Of course, this is a massive arranged crime akin to and having it's roots in the sub-prime mortgage crash. Rates are low. corporations can borrow unlimited cash and buy a residence, then rent it out to get 4-5% interest and pay 1.5 to 2.5 = risk free make the spread with no limits. I would like to borrow 10 billion and buy a zillion homes and make the spread ~~3%. They hire property managers and that costs .5% to .75…

This isn’t how taxation works or even can work. It would be trivial to avoid the tax you propose if it is based on income from the properties. If the tax is more like a property tax then it would be impossible for it to not be passed on to renters. Indeed, ALL taxes are passed onto consumers!

Re: House prices surpass housing-bubble peak on price-to-rent ratio

#28

Clearly there are a lot of variables including interest rates, desire for better space due to Covid lockdowns and more recently FOMO. One thing that should not be overlooked is the basic economics of supply and demand. Right now the supply is extremely low compared to much of our historical data. This at the same time as demand has been red hot (due mostly to Covid). Check out the data below, especially over the last…

Lack of supply is precisely the issue causing panic buying through bidding wars. You need to go 10% over asking to be guaranteed to be close. Low demand and continued increases of buyers coming to market cause the snowball effect.

Re: House prices surpass housing-bubble peak on price-to-rent ratio

#29

Clearly there are a lot of variables including interest rates, desire for better space due to Covid lockdowns and more recently FOMO. One thing that should not be overlooked is the basic economics of supply and demand. Right now the supply is extremely low compared to much of our historical data. This at the same time as demand has been red hot (due mostly to Covid). Check out the data below, especially over the last…

Rental cars seem to be a mess. I know at least one person who canceled a trip because they couldn't get a rental car. And I reserved one for a trip at the end of September "just in case" and the price seemed significantly higher than normal.

Re: House prices surpass housing-bubble peak on price-to-rent ratio

#30
post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Low interest rates don't make people offer 150k over asking while waiving all contingencies Paying above offer always struck me as strange. In my housing market its very common as well, to the point I believe under-pricing the home is intentional. There's no reason the home should be priced considerably below the market price. Sometimes you get it wrong but homes consistently selling above ask tells you the sellers…

The USA is the only country, I can think of, that allows anyone, from anywhere, to buy our land. You don't need to be a citizen of this country in order to buy our land? Just money, and a email will buy a house. The federal government could stop some of the insanity of buying a home, if they just made it a bit harder for foreigners to buy our land? Isn't the federal governments purpose to put Americans first?

I don't think this is unique to the US at all. As far as I'm aware most countries allow foreigners to buy land, many even give you residency if you do so.

Also would this have any affect outside of places like Manhattan?

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