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When Do Programmers Retire? Is 35 the End?

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Re: When Do Programmers Retire? Is 35 the End?

#51

Post by topkai22 »

silexia wrote: post #11

The article and current comments here miss a critical point - this industry is expanding exponentially. People don't often switch careers completely, so of course most new entrants are young. If we look at this again fifty years after the industry size has stabilized, you would see a normal distribution of ages just like in carpentry or car mechanics or any other profession.

Yup they even stated this statistic but miss its significance:

> the number of software developers aged 55 to 64 years increased from 87,000 (8.3%) in 2011 to 195,000 (10.7%) in 2019 in the USA.

The number of older software developers MORE THAN DOUBLED in 8 years in absolute numbers, but only increased by 25% in relative terms. That strongly indicates that existing developers weren't pushed out, they just were swamped by new entrants.

There is definitely some drop off around middle age- in 2011 there were 529,000 working "programmers" (computer programmers, software engineers and web developers) in the USA between 35-44. In 2020, there were 400,000. That means about 1 in 4 left the profession (probably more like 1 in 3 to account for new entrants). But that means the vast majority of people programming between 35-44 were still classifying themselves as programmers 10 years later. The drop off from 45-54 to 55-65 was even shallower at 13%.

So the data suggest that despite the mid-age drop off most programmers seem to stay programmers most of their career. I'd expect that many of those exiting "programming" as an occupation are transitioning to management, technical sales, or closely related professions as well, but it wouldn't show up in the data I looked at.

Given that I, being in that 35-44 cohort, am not going to worry to much about how to stay in the profession. I just may ask myself if there is something else I'd like to do as a 2nd act.

Edit- sources: 2011 US CPS- https://www.bls.gov/cps/aa2011/cpsaat11b.htm

2020 US CPS- https://www.bls.gov/cps/cpsaat11b.htm

Re: When Do Programmers Retire? Is 35 the End?

#54

Post by tjansen »

hiram112 wrote: post #49
BXLE_1-1-BitIs1 wrote: post #2

Blather. Hire kids who don't know how or when to say no, and you are coin flipping on whether your project will crash and burn. My advice to CS majors is that you need to make enough to retire by 35 as that's when you stand a good chance of being tossed on the trash heap. Alternatively - win the startup lottery and either cash out or continue as principal.

> My advice to CS majors is that you need to make enough to retire by 35 as that's when you stand a good chance of being tossed on the trash heap. I agree with this. CS is a GREAT career when you're in your mid 20's, making 6 figures with just a bachelors, while your cohorts are still taking on even more loans in graduate school or earning a fraction of your salary down in the bottom rungs of the corporate ladder. Th…

"...you're going to be competing with 28 year olds who can write CRUD apps in the shiny new frameworks better than you at 2/3 the salary. Which is why many corporations don't really enjoy keeping on 40+ year old developers who expect to get 5% raises each year..."

I think you have already outlined the solution:

- don't expect 5% raises, or getting more than other developers at the same level. Your salary will plateau, but that's not a bad thing.

- keep up with technology and make sure you don't fall behind.

Re: When Do Programmers Retire? Is 35 the End?

#56

Post by masonic »

topkai22 wrote: post #51
silexia wrote: post #11

The article and current comments here miss a critical point - this industry is expanding exponentially. People don't often switch careers completely, so of course most new entrants are young. If we look at this again fifty years after the industry size has stabilized, you would see a normal distribution of ages just like in carpentry or car mechanics or any other profession.

Yup they even stated this statistic but miss its significance: > the number of software developers aged 55 to 64 years increased from 87,000 (8.3%) in 2011 to 195,000 (10.7%) in 2019 in the USA. The number of older software developers MORE THAN DOUBLED in 8 years in absolute numbers, but only increased by 25% in relative terms. That strongly indicates that existing developers weren't pushed out, they just were swampe…

  the number of software developers aged 55 to 64 years increased from 87,000 (8.3%) in 2011 to 195,000 (10.7%) in 2019 in the USA.
But given how much the overall pool has grown, that isn't the relevant stat.

The relevant stat is how many developers aged 45 to 54 in 2011 are STILL EMPLOYED in the field? That's where you see the ageism.

In other industries, not that many people voluntarily abandon a career path at 45 for another industry.

Re: When Do Programmers Retire? Is 35 the End?

#57

Post by masonic » 

  Many developers retire early and become a trainer for young developers.
How's that? "Training"... where? You're talking about the population that's already been bounced from employment in the industry. There are only so many jobs in community colleges and such, and they don't pay much.

Re: When Do Programmers Retire? Is 35 the End?

#58

Post by anyfoo »

anyfoo wrote: post #48
tastyminerals2 wrote: post #15

I hypothesise that the majority of active SO users are beginner or intermediate programmers. I was using SO quite frequently when I started learning how to program. Now, I don’t have a need neither do I participate in their surveys. My senior colleague does not use it as well, moreover he doesn’t even have time for that. You can occasionally look up a few things but that’s that. In comparison, just three four years a…

As an individual contributor over 35, I land on Slack Overflow about once a month I’d guess (it feels like even less, though it may well be more, if I do without consciously remembering). The problems I need to solve have become so specialized and niche that it’s often not worth googling. They mostly rather need reading existing code or talking to people. That’s not to say that I know everything after those decades.…

Oops, that “Slack Overflow” typo was unintentional, I swear. (But I missed the window where I could still edit it.)

Re: When Do Programmers Retire? Is 35 the End?

#59

Post by piva00 »

vostok wrote: post #4

I find it hard to reconcile the common complaint that software developers are often unemployable past 35 with my personal observations. This is pure anecdata, but I don't think I know a single software developer who was unable to continue in the industry past 35 as commonly claimed. On the other hand, I know tons of former financial employees who became unemployable in the industry at 30 or even earlier.

Can confirm, I've been working in this industry since I was 16, around 17 years ago. Since then I've worked with people 30+ and the older I'm getting the more common it got to have colleagues on the 30-50 year old range.

I don't see at all this supposed ageism in software, is this skew coming from startup people? Because in startups, yeah, I see mostly youngsters but that's due to the work environment and pay, I refuse to work in startups for the foreseeable future as I did when I was 20-something. The pay is shit, the hours can be grueling, expectations and stress are way way too high for my current lifestyle. Of course, it can be your golden ticket but it's such a major risk that I don't feel I would like to waste 5 years on it.

Re: When Do Programmers Retire? Is 35 the End?

#60

Post by dubeye »

I'm a 40 year old hobbyiest, with very basic skills that I've successfully monetised in my distant past, and never considered applying for jobs before covid as didn't want to feel weird in a room full of kids. But with homeworking more normal, perhaps that changes things?
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