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EU bans Belarusian airlines from European skies

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Re: EU bans Belarusian airlines from European skies

#111
post #46
post #17

But how often do Lukashenko and his circle actually fly out of Belarus anyway? He already had no problem with closing his own borders before anyway, so it's not like this is going to seem like a strong move to him and it only really hurts the Belarusian people.

They sanctioned individuals involved in the decision too. And at some point, the Belarusian people will have to take responsibility for their leaders. I'm not saying it should happen today or that they should start a civil war, but they should think about ways to change.

Bro, you don't seem to understand the concept of a dictatorship.

You think people were fine until now but not being able to fly to Spain suddenly makes them see their error?

Re: EU bans Belarusian airlines from European skies

#112

Earlier quoted context omitted.

For all practical matters that is the same. Of course member states have to implement it. The EU is (still?) not one country. What counts is that the leaders of all EU countries agreed to it. So it will happen.

Let's see how it evolves: I think every country shall make its cost-benefit analysis, and the ones with nothing or very little to lose shall ban. I would bet on medium compliance.

> I think every country shall make its cost-benefit analysis

Nope, that the ban will happen has already passed, which is what this article is about. What hasn't happened yet is that the executive order in each country has yet to happen, but that won't include extensive debate as the decision that has been taken is a united front for the participating countries.

Actively ignoring already agreed orders to pass would be going against their own interest of a united front, which obviously would go against the core principle of the EU, so unlikely to happen.

Re: EU bans Belarusian airlines from European skies

#113

Unfortunately, the real losers of this situation will be the Belarusian people, many of whom have immigrated to nearby countries like Poland or Germany. They will now (probably) be unable to visit family members easily, as flights will have to reroute through Istanbul or Russia. Pretty much the same situation with Iran. Actions intended to punish an unjust government mostly just hurt their citizens.

How people are going to take responsibility if they are not going to feel consequences? Are they ever going to sort out their mess?

Re: EU bans Belarusian airlines from European skies

#114

I am surprised Hungary agreed. And Poland. The governments in those nations are not shy to touch on the freedoms of their population, and often disagree with the EU when the EU points these things out. Also Poland being directly next to Belarus will affect their relations.

Poland has been supporting the Belarusian opposition. Some rudimentary information has made it on Wikipedia, cf https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belarus%E2%80%93Poland_relatio...

Re: EU bans Belarusian airlines from European skies

#115

Wonder what the geo-political consequences could be. What if Big Brother Putin now says all EU planes are banned from flying over Russia. Or what if Russian ATC are ordered to route planes flying from the east to Belarussian airspace. Of course there's probably a bit of freedom to choose routes by pilots, but if I were Putin I'd just say (or tell my ATC to say): "those routes are closed because of military training,…

> What if Big Brother Putin now says all EU planes are banned from flying over Russia

For what gain?

Re: EU bans Belarusian airlines from European skies

#116
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let's see how it evolves: I think every country shall make its cost-benefit analysis, and the ones with nothing or very little to lose shall ban. I would bet on medium compliance.

The thing is, to put it bluntly, it's Belarus. Almost all of them have nothing to lose. I imagine air traffic over Belarus can be avoided with minimal financial losses and Belarus itself only generates a small amount of traffic. Plus some of the countries voting for this are actively hostile to Belarus (I think Lithuania is in that category). The only thing that would make them change their minds is if Russia reacts…

> I imagine air traffic over Belarus can be avoided with minimal financial losses and Belarus itself only generates a small amount of traffic

The ban is for Belarusian airlines over EU members countries. The one who is being targeted to be "financially hurt" is not the EU countries themselves but the Belarusian airlines. I'm sure they'll feel the impact very soon, as they'll basically need to cancel every flight unless it goes to Russia.

Re: EU bans Belarusian airlines from European skies

#117

Unfortunately, the real losers of this situation will be the Belarusian people, many of whom have immigrated to nearby countries like Poland or Germany. They will now (probably) be unable to visit family members easily, as flights will have to reroute through Istanbul or Russia. Pretty much the same situation with Iran. Actions intended to punish an unjust government mostly just hurt their citizens.

I agree that many people that didn't have a say in this will be affected. Do you have any suggestions on better measures that the EU could have taken? Or should the EU have taken no measures at all?

Target the elite instead of the people

Re: EU bans Belarusian airlines from European skies

#118
post #18
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm not entirely sure belavia is even profitable in the first place

The only things in Belarus that are profitable are IT companies. Which BTW brings up a question of big international corporations outsourcing to authoritarian countries. Should they be punished financially for being complicit in breaking human rights?

[deleted]

Re: EU bans Belarusian airlines from European skies

#119
post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is, to put it bluntly, it's Belarus. Almost all of them have nothing to lose. I imagine air traffic over Belarus can be avoided with minimal financial losses and Belarus itself only generates a small amount of traffic. Plus some of the countries voting for this are actively hostile to Belarus (I think Lithuania is in that category). The only thing that would make them change their minds is if Russia reacts…

> I imagine air traffic over Belarus can be avoided with minimal financial losses and Belarus itself only generates a small amount of traffic The ban is for Belarusian airlines over EU members countries. The one who is being targeted to be "financially hurt" is not the EU countries themselves but the Belarusian airlines. I'm sure they'll feel the impact very soon, as they'll basically need to cancel every flight unle…

It's probably going to be both ways, though. I can't imagine Belarus not retaliating (though the EU has already decided to avoid their airspace, anyway).

Re: EU bans Belarusian airlines from European skies

#120
post #106

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree that many people that didn't have a say in this will be affected. Do you have any suggestions on better measures that the EU could have taken? Or should the EU have taken no measures at all?

I'm fairly sure Lukashenko/Putin was expecting (possibly even counting on) some kind of reaction. This has Putin's fingerprints all over it, actually. He set up a kind of win/win situation. Sanctions have a habit of backfiring at the best of times, and he's set up a situation where the hypocrisy of the EU/US can be hammered home in domestic propaganda with persistent comparisons to Morales/Snowden incident. It'll be…

Of course he did. It just got a lot harder for Belarusians to come to the West / Westerners to visit Belarus. You can now expect Belarus to cancel its 30 days visa-free entrance program, which requires that visitors entered the country through the airport.

The actions by the EU only help Putin and Lukashenko.

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