101–110 of 422 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
What would the alternative be? Do nothing?
Spend money on a BBC Belarusian comedy channel... Hehe.. Broadcast from neighbouring countries. It's probably not very rational, but it would be fun :)
I am surprised Hungary agreed. And Poland. The governments in those nations are not shy to touch on the freedoms of their population, and often disagree with the EU when the EU points these things out. Also Poland being directly next to Belarus will affect their relations.
> What Belarus did, while illegal, is not unprecedented. The dangerous tactic was pioneered by the same U.S. and E.U. officials now righteously condemning it.
https://greenwald.substack.com/p/as-anger-toward-belarus-mou...
Earlier quoted context omitted.
They hardly have any airlines in Belarus, may be only one Belavia may be of any significant size.
Flying over Belarus might be a good income for the country - no longer. An interesting shift of the last decade or so of sanction wars is that sanctions must be targeted against the regime , not the people. Otherwise it's a bit of an own goal - you give the regime a bogeyman to point at. As such, this seems like a good, pragmatic type of sanction. Few regular Belarusians will feel the impact, but it does strike at th…
Why do you think this is the case? The regime isn't flying on a public airline. If you're a regular Belarusian trying to travel to/from the West, these actions are only making your life worse.
Unfortunately, the real losers of this situation will be the Belarusian people, many of whom have immigrated to nearby countries like Poland or Germany. They will now (probably) be unable to visit family members easily, as flights will have to reroute through Istanbul or Russia. Pretty much the same situation with Iran. Actions intended to punish an unjust government mostly just hurt their citizens.
I agree that many people that didn't have a say in this will be affected. Do you have any suggestions on better measures that the EU could have taken? Or should the EU have taken no measures at all?
He set up a kind of win/win situation. Sanctions have a habit of backfiring at the best of times, and he's set up a situation where the hypocrisy of the EU/US can be hammered home in domestic propaganda with persistent comparisons to Morales/Snowden incident. It'll be hard for pro western Belarussian politicians/journalists to effectively rebut these.
Meanwhile they can gently guide Belarussians into going on holiday in Russia where they might have gone to Europe if flights are banned. Isolating them this way would be a feature, not a bug.
If, on the other hand, the EU/US just sanction a few individuals they look weak and Lukashenko looks strong.
It's quite the pickle.
I am surprised Hungary agreed. And Poland. The governments in those nations are not shy to touch on the freedoms of their population, and often disagree with the EU when the EU points these things out. Also Poland being directly next to Belarus will affect their relations.
Politics is more complicated than Good Guys vs. Bad Guys.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
For all practical matters that is the same. Of course member states have to implement it. The EU is (still?) not one country. What counts is that the leaders of all EU countries agreed to it. So it will happen.
Let's see how it evolves: I think every country shall make its cost-benefit analysis, and the ones with nothing or very little to lose shall ban. I would bet on medium compliance.
The only thing that would make them change their minds is if Russia reacts somehow.
Nice that something more than strongly worded letters was done.
It's perhaps somewhat similar to sanctions against Russia which were followed by Russia-imposed sanctions on importing e.g. cheese, which has the benefit of improving trade balance (as people aren't consuming imported products) and any discontent of the people is blamed on the western sanctions; the regime wants to ban certain things but it has less impact on people's satisfaction if the ban can be blamed on everyone else.
The EU could up their game by recognizing the democratically elected Belarusian individuals as the rightful government in exile, and propose to kick-start EU integration talks with them. That would send a strong support message to the Belarusian people.