Atlantic Hurricanes Trend – Zoe's Insights • Hacker News Board

Re: Atlantic Hurricanes Trend – Zoe's Insights

#11

Post by phzoe » Sun, May 23, 2021, 3:33 AM UTC

Farfignoggen wrote: post #9

phzoe wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. I chose a longer time frame which doesn't have that data.

You are ignoring data sets that go back further from Aircraft and Ships and ocean buoys and there are more types of readings available and you are assuming that I intended you to stop at 4 or 5 decades ago and go no further! It's your lack of usage of that ACE metric and other datasets that are allowing for even finer grained tropical cyclone intensity measuring analysis. Your extremely limited sampling of the histor…

You're extremely obnoxious. If you have access to better long term data that for some reason NOAA lacks in the file I use (see source code), then you should share it.

Re: Atlantic Hurricanes Trend – Zoe's Insights

#12

Post by Arnt » Sun, May 23, 2021, 10:51 AM UTC

phzoe wrote: post #5

Farfignoggen wrote: post #2

Zoe, You Did not measure the ACE(Accumulated Cyclone Energy) numbers just the lowest pressure at a singular point in time at lowest pressure and looking at your sheep-skin there I see that you have no experience in that category of Science related to Meteorology or the Sub-Category of Climate Science! So you'll not gain much credence outside of your Blog there! Maybe get Joe Bastardi to help you because he's in your…

What an obnoxious comment. I can either go far back in time, and make do with available data, or I can just focus on the satellite era. You see which one I chose. No scientists have complete data to create an ACE prior to the 1970s. I made do with what was available and I did a good job. Scientists claim that peak intensity will go up. Well I have peak low pressure data ...

Mind if I summarise the posting? It will sound unfriendly.

"Those people are claiming that one thing increases. Well, wouldn't it be better to measure another thing? It would! […] So we see that the thing I want to measure shows no change. This proves that those people are wrong and alarmist."

The trick you use is point 15 in Schopenhauer's book about dirty rhetorical tricks.

Re: Atlantic Hurricanes Trend – Zoe's Insights

#13

Post by phzoe » Sun, May 23, 2021, 5:04 PM UTC

Arnt wrote: post #12

phzoe wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What an obnoxious comment. I can either go far back in time, and make do with available data, or I can just focus on the satellite era. You see which one I chose. No scientists have complete data to create an ACE prior to the 1970s. I made do with what was available and I did a good job. Scientists claim that peak intensity will go up. Well I have peak low pressure data ...

Mind if I summarise the posting? It will sound unfriendly. "Those people are claiming that one thing increases. Well, wouldn't it be better to measure another thing? It would! […] So we see that the thing I want to measure shows no change. This proves that those people are wrong and alarmist." The trick you use is point 15 in Schopenhauer's book about dirty rhetorical tricks.

Funny. I think it's important to understand the meta story.

What are the motives of people who claim 4 hurricanes each lasting 3 hours MUST BE more important than 3 hurricanes each lasting 4 hours?

The potential damage may actually result more from duration than frequency.

Perhaps it's worth asking if the initial claim is a dirty rhetorical trick?

When it comes to global accumulated cyclone energy, it is no trend/slightly decreasing.

Alarmists predicted it would go up decades ago. They were wrong.

Now they just cherrypick subfacts beneath that grand fact. Look at this location! Look at this time slice! See? See?

It's pathetic.

Re: Atlantic Hurricanes Trend – Zoe's Insights

#14

Post by phzoe » Sun, May 23, 2021, 5:06 PM UTC

mrfusion wrote: post #8

phzoe wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Thank you. I chose a longer time frame which doesn't have that data.

Really interesting blog! I queued up 30 posts to read. I’m a climate skeptic skeptic skeptic but I’ll entertain any ideas.

Thank you! Enjoy :)