How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory • Hacker News Board

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#191

Post by tripletao » Tue, May 18, 2021, 7:54 AM UTC

lamontcg wrote: post #189

eloff wrote: post #42

There's basically no evidence either way, although the outbreak being in a city with a class 4 bio lab actively studying sars viruses does on the surface seem to make the lab leak more probable. Bit of a coincidence. What really makes me think though is the way China is being uncooperative. You'd think if they were innocent they wouldn't need to limit access to data and prevent investigation of the Wuhan lab. Maybe t…

> What really makes me think though is the way China is being uncooperative This reminds me exactly of the same kind of arguments made about Saddam Hussein when it came to WMDs before 2003. It turned out that Hussein was playing to the domestic audience, not the USA. It made sense to him to stand up to the weapons inspections for domestic political consumption. Everyone in the USA, including the CIA thought he MUST h…

That may be true, and I agree that possibility is underplayed. But if that's what happened, isn't the correct policy action the same as what those concerned about lab origin are advocating (i.e., to push for an investigation of the origins that's not fully dependent on the CCP's honesty)? The danger to humanity exists regardless of whether they're concealing reckless science that causes pandemics or reckless agriculture that causes pandemics.

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#192

Post by tripletao » Tue, May 18, 2021, 8:04 AM UTC

XorNot wrote: post #38

dsyrk wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1977_Russian_flu Except another very recent one was also a lab accident. So, no, not every single previous one was, and 2 of last 3 will have been from labs.

Except that virus was genomically identical to another virus in the 1950s. These thing's aren't being made in labs, they're being stored there but the actual reality is this: none of the countries being so interested in this have any ability to influence the country's these things happen in. So your effective response protocol may as well just blackbox the problem: "there is a new novel virus, how do we respond?" No…

First, I think you've misunderstood the significance of that genetic similarity in the 1977 pandemic, since your use of the word "except" doesn't make sense. That genetic similarity is itself the evidence that the pandemic was probably of unnatural origin. After 27 years of natural transmission, the 1950 virus should have picked up mutations along the way. It didn't, thus the widely-accepted theory that it spent those intervening years in a laboratory freezer:

> The reemergence was probably an accidental release from a laboratory source in the setting of waning population immunity to H1 and N1 antigens

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMra0904322

So the statement above that "every single previous one [pandemic] in history" was of natural origin is probably false. The 1977 flu killed about 700k people worldwide, less than SARS-CoV-2 but more than a typical flu season.

To emphasize, humanity doesn't have the technology to invent viruses de novo. A lab-manipulated virus is always going to be derived from a naturally-evolved virus, whether that's in simple ways (like storage in a freezer for 27 years) or complex ones (like genetic engineering). The question is the causality--if a pandemic was caused by the actions of scientists, then if not for those actions, those thousands/millions of people would still be alive.

Second, why would we need to invade China? The USA was literally funding this research, so couldn't we just stop doing that?

If SARS-CoV-2 arose from a lab accident, then China certainly deserves special blame for the coverup. But before that, this wasn't a political topic--it was an obscure academic debate between a small subset of virologists who wanted to perform certain risky experiments, and other academics who thought that risk was unacceptable. It's quite possible that the CCP is currently wishing they'd blamed the whole thing on a rogue, American-funded researcher early on. If they had, then it's quite possible that narrative would have stuck--it would be stupider than what most people seem to believe now, but not by much.

Finally, the indifference you express above is bizarre to me. Do you believe the same thing about Chernobyl, that it's better for us to devote all our resources to improving treatment for cancer (which will also occur naturally, with or without nuclear meltdowns) and none to preventing meltdowns? If not, how is this different?

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#193

Post by lamontcg » Tue, May 18, 2021, 8:06 AM UTC

tripletao wrote: post #191

lamontcg wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What really makes me think though is the way China is being uncooperative This reminds me exactly of the same kind of arguments made about Saddam Hussein when it came to WMDs before 2003. It turned out that Hussein was playing to the domestic audience, not the USA. It made sense to him to stand up to the weapons inspections for domestic political consumption. Everyone in the USA, including the CIA thought he MUST h…

That may be true, and I agree that possibility is underplayed. But if that's what happened, isn't the correct policy action the same as what those concerned about lab origin are advocating (i.e., to push for an investigation of the origins that's not fully dependent on the CCP's honesty)? The danger to humanity exists regardless of whether they're concealing reckless science that causes pandemics or reckless agricult…

They know an investigation of the origins pins it on China. With a zoonotic source China is still at fault. As an authoritarian regime that outcome undermines them.

A bunch of Americans angry about the lab leak theory works fine for them, that just enhances the bunker mentality for their own domestic consumption.

And they're more worried about domestic politics now and spinning propaganda than they are about preventing the next pandemic.

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#194

Post by Redoubts » Tue, May 18, 2021, 8:08 AM UTC

eloff wrote: post #42

There's basically no evidence either way, although the outbreak being in a city with a class 4 bio lab actively studying sars viruses does on the surface seem to make the lab leak more probable. Bit of a coincidence. What really makes me think though is the way China is being uncooperative. You'd think if they were innocent they wouldn't need to limit access to data and prevent investigation of the Wuhan lab. Maybe t…

> if they were innocent they wouldn't need to limit access

Never talk to the police

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#195

Post by tripletao » Tue, May 18, 2021, 8:14 AM UTC

lamontcg wrote: post #193

tripletao wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That may be true, and I agree that possibility is underplayed. But if that's what happened, isn't the correct policy action the same as what those concerned about lab origin are advocating (i.e., to push for an investigation of the origins that's not fully dependent on the CCP's honesty)? The danger to humanity exists regardless of whether they're concealing reckless science that causes pandemics or reckless agricult…

They know an investigation of the origins pins it on China. With a zoonotic source China is still at fault. As an authoritarian regime that outcome undermines them. A bunch of Americans angry about the lab leak theory works fine for them, that just enhances the bunker mentality for their own domestic consumption. And they're more worried about domestic politics now and spinning propaganda than they are about preventi…

I agree that the CCP's incentives are to oppose such an investigation regardless of the true origin, especially after they've spent months digging in to that position. But if our goal is to reduce the risk of future pandemics, then do you have a better idea for a policy action to achieve that?

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#196

Post by kelnos » Tue, May 18, 2021, 8:18 AM UTC

tripletao wrote: post #191

lamontcg wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> What really makes me think though is the way China is being uncooperative This reminds me exactly of the same kind of arguments made about Saddam Hussein when it came to WMDs before 2003. It turned out that Hussein was playing to the domestic audience, not the USA. It made sense to him to stand up to the weapons inspections for domestic political consumption. Everyone in the USA, including the CIA thought he MUST h…

That may be true, and I agree that possibility is underplayed. But if that's what happened, isn't the correct policy action the same as what those concerned about lab origin are advocating (i.e., to push for an investigation of the origins that's not fully dependent on the CCP's honesty)? The danger to humanity exists regardless of whether they're concealing reckless science that causes pandemics or reckless agricult…

I think the reason is that the Chinese government doesn't care as much about the danger to humanity as they do about saving face and maintaining their power.

They may even know definitively where it came from, whether it was a lab with lax safety practices or from reckless agriculture. And they can fix either or both of those things, quietly, while still pushing the narrative internally that the virus didn't come from China at all.

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#197

Post by kelnos » Tue, May 18, 2021, 8:20 AM UTC

tripletao wrote: post #195

lamontcg wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They know an investigation of the origins pins it on China. With a zoonotic source China is still at fault. As an authoritarian regime that outcome undermines them. A bunch of Americans angry about the lab leak theory works fine for them, that just enhances the bunker mentality for their own domestic consumption. And they're more worried about domestic politics now and spinning propaganda than they are about preventi…

I agree that the CCP's incentives are to oppose such an investigation regardless of the true origin, especially after they've spent months digging in to that position. But if our goal is to reduce the risk of future pandemics, then do you have a better idea for a policy action to achieve that?

I don't think there is one. Determining the source requires cooperation from the Chinese government, and there is no way that cooperation can be forced if they don't want to give it. And even if there was, there's no guarantee that enough evidence or information remains after a year and a half for us to prove anything.

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#198

Post by kelnos » Tue, May 18, 2021, 8:25 AM UTC

TearsInTheRain wrote: post #121

ekianjo wrote: post #64

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Having an open mind about alternative explanations than the official one from the WHO is not believing in conspiracy theories. Its just not believing in propaganda.

Imho calling the lab leak theory a conspiracy theory is a form of gas lighting. It is telling people that it isnt legitimate to use basic common sense to question why the bat coronavirus outbreak happened down the street from the lab studying bat coronaviruses. You must deny what is plainly in front of your eyes.

Nine miles away is "down the street" now?

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#199

Post by kelnos » Tue, May 18, 2021, 8:31 AM UTC

jb775 wrote: post #178

newacct583 wrote: post #135

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So if the lab leak theory turns out to be true, how will people deal with the fact that they've been vehemently disregarding it as a "Q-anon conspiracy theory"? If the lab leak theory turns out to be true, I'll admit I was wrong about my intuition. It's not impossible, but it's extremely unlikely. We've had literally thousands of new virus strains evolve in the past century of viral research and like three known "l…

Why are people insisting this came from a guy eating a bat-burger and bat-fries meal with absolutely no evidence? My common sense info is that a super-virus popped up right down the street from a lab designed to create super-viruses(funding signed off by Fauci, and much historic public info/discussion exists about what type of work was being done at the Wuhan lab), China disappeared the lab people, and biggest red-fl…

> Why are people insisting this came from a guy eating a bat-burger and bat-fries meal with absolutely no evidence?

The answer is right in the article, at the very end: the virus was found in 6% of samples taken from the market, with most of the virus-positive samples found in areas that had wildlife in it.

That's not "no evidence" at all. I would rate it as slightly -- but only slightly -- more compelling than the circumstantial evidence pointing to a lab leak.

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#200

Post by rich_sasha » Tue, May 18, 2021, 8:35 AM UTC

lamontcg wrote: post #193

tripletao wrote: post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That may be true, and I agree that possibility is underplayed. But if that's what happened, isn't the correct policy action the same as what those concerned about lab origin are advocating (i.e., to push for an investigation of the origins that's not fully dependent on the CCP's honesty)? The danger to humanity exists regardless of whether they're concealing reckless science that causes pandemics or reckless agricult…

They know an investigation of the origins pins it on China. With a zoonotic source China is still at fault. As an authoritarian regime that outcome undermines them. A bunch of Americans angry about the lab leak theory works fine for them, that just enhances the bunker mentality for their own domestic consumption. And they're more worried about domestic politics now and spinning propaganda than they are about preventi…

> With a zoonotic source China is still at fault.

Is it really though? Is that then not a "shit happens" case? No one seems to be particularly angry at how SARS started, or Ebola in Africa etc. It just seems understood that often humans and animals mingle closely together, and then yes, bad things happen, but it's just part of doing business.

Anyway China is implying already that this is what's going on, so I can't see what they would have to lose by confirming it.