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How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

donaldgmcneiljr1954.medium.com

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Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#161

Post by swader999 »

xmprt wrote: post #139
jb775 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So I generally give like zero weight to conspiracy theories You know it was once a conspiracy theory to say the Earth wasn't flat. And it was once considered blasphemy to say putting leeches on your body didn't help an illness. There's a reason why the term "conspiracy theory" is thrown around by the media so much...it's because they know a certain subset of people have been socially conditioned to bypass critical…

I think people usually give zero weight to conspiracy theories not because they're never true but because it's much likelier that the experts know better than you do.

This article shows how funding and fear of losing funding might have influenced all these experts to back the wrong narrative.

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#162

Post by ddingus »

lamontcg wrote: post #143
ddingus wrote: post #133

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Another way to get at a similar disconcerting place: Where is the animal population that harbored the virus?

Same problem with SARS-CoV-1. The Bat SL-CoV-WIV1 virus that is closest related to that is also from Horseshoe bats in Yunnan. The SARS-CoV-1 outbreak in humans was >700 miles away in Guangdong. The virus may or may not have used an intermediate animal like civets to jump to humans. We've seen this happen before and we know there was no lab leak involved.

The lack of cooperation complicates all of this, which was my primary point.

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#163

Post by keeganpoppen »

barry-cotter wrote: post #141
jb775 wrote: post #104

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> So I generally give like zero weight to conspiracy theories You know it was once a conspiracy theory to say the Earth wasn't flat. And it was once considered blasphemy to say putting leeches on your body didn't help an illness. There's a reason why the term "conspiracy theory" is thrown around by the media so much...it's because they know a certain subset of people have been socially conditioned to bypass critical…

> You know it was once a conspiracy theory to say the Earth wasn't flat. Archimedes knew the Earth was a sphere. You can tell the surface of the Earth is curved by the fact that the body of a ship disappears from view before its mast.

and also if you just climb a tall enough hill and look at the horizon

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#164

Post by Johnny555 »

Johnny555 wrote: post #116

And China’s lack of candor is disturbing. It denies access to the institute’s lab logs and whatever messages were swapped during its own investigations, took down 2018 statements critical of lab biosecurity protocols, retaliated against Australia for advocating an open investigation and sharply restricted the W.H.O. investigators. Would the USA have been any more open if an American government lab was suspected as th…

It's not like they've been forthcoming in the past:

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/2015/05/28/biolabs-patho...

A USA TODAY Network investigation reveals that hundreds of lab mistakes, safety violations and near-miss incidents have occurred in biological laboratories coast to coast in recent years, putting scientists, their colleagues and sometimes even the public at risk.

Oversight of biological research labs is fragmented, often secretive and largely self-policing, the investigation found. And even when research facilities commit the most egregious safety or security breaches — as more than 100 labs have — federal regulators keep their names secret.

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#165

Post by swader999 »

cudgy wrote: post #159
titzer wrote: post #132

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> then Fauci and Straszak shifted funding to continue it in Wuhan A nested conspiracy theory is just what we need for some more political polarization in the USA. Score!

The convenient use of the word “conspiracy theory” usually indicates a lazy evaluation of the facts from what I’ve observed. The threat of “polarization” adds even more to the lack of rigor. Should we just ignore concepts and discussion if it is not generally agreed upon or upsets a group of people?

Unfortunately that's the way the game seems to be going. Have a huge interest in statistics and want to comment against the election results - better be very careful if you make unpopular assertions and need funding. Same thing appears here.It would be a very career limiting to make claims that are similar to the orange man's claims around the origin, the ability of otc medications like HCL or invermecithin to help early on decrease the severity.

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#166

Post by tonfreed »

eloff wrote: post #42

There's basically no evidence either way, although the outbreak being in a city with a class 4 bio lab actively studying sars viruses does on the surface seem to make the lab leak more probable. Bit of a coincidence. What really makes me think though is the way China is being uncooperative. You'd think if they were innocent they wouldn't need to limit access to data and prevent investigation of the Wuhan lab. Maybe t…

May not have come from the lab, but entirely possible they were working on bioweapons or something else untoward in Wuhan. Would explain why they don't want inspectors poking around

We won't know until someone forces open those records, I guess.

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#167

Post by swader999 »

baggy_trough wrote: post #103
mdoms wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Suggesting that because it has happened before in China, "Chinese labs" do it, is indeed racist.

What rubbish. There must be some way to comment on Chinese practices that isn't racist.

CCP is a better descriptor as they are the ones pushing and regulating policy there.

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#168

Post by katbyte »

titzer wrote: post #132
swader999 wrote: post #108

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It was banned in the USA around 2013, then Fauci and Straszak shifted funding to continue it in Wuhan to get around the USA bans. Virologists signed on to the article promoted by Straszak claiming the wet market fantasy as Fauci and Straszak control much of the funding in virology.

> then Fauci and Straszak shifted funding to continue it in Wuhan A nested conspiracy theory is just what we need for some more political polarization in the USA. Score!

Actual facts are now a conspiracy theory?

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#169

Post by katbyte »

swader999 wrote: post #92
katbyte wrote: post #67

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There hadn’t been one at this scale for 100 years, who’s to say how long it would have been till the next natural one, I for one would rather not have experienced a global pandemic even if a natural one was due in 50 years

The 68 flu killed between 1-4 million, so the high end in that one would be comparable to what we see with covid.

1-4 that didn’t shutdown the wold isn’t comparable to covid nearing 4 million verified and likely far higher despite many actions and lockdowns taken. I’d much rather have lived through a 68 flu then covid thank you

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#170

Post by cudgy »

swader999 wrote: post #165
cudgy wrote: post #159

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The convenient use of the word “conspiracy theory” usually indicates a lazy evaluation of the facts from what I’ve observed. The threat of “polarization” adds even more to the lack of rigor. Should we just ignore concepts and discussion if it is not generally agreed upon or upsets a group of people?

Unfortunately that's the way the game seems to be going. Have a huge interest in statistics and want to comment against the election results - better be very careful if you make unpopular assertions and need funding. Same thing appears here.It would be a very career limiting to make claims that are similar to the orange man's claims around the origin, the ability of otc medications like HCL or invermecithin to help e…

Thanks for mentioning the election example. The word “lies” is a proxy for lack of rigorous journalism as well. When journalists claim that opinions / criticism about something as complicated as an election are “lies”, their bias is quite obvious. It’s as if there is no nuance allowed.
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