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How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

donaldgmcneiljr1954.medium.com

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Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#71

Post by mhh__ »

rllearneratwork wrote: post #62
danenania wrote: post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Has anyone analyzed this with a Bayesian statistical approach? Considering that a zoonotic transfer could happen in a very large number of places on earth, I would imagine that the odds of an outbreak in any particular city would be quite small? With that in mind, how many virology labs are there doing gain-of-function research on coronaviruses? How many have had safety issues in the past? How many times have pathoge…

>>"Has anyone analyzed this with a Bayesian statistical approach?" - YES. And they give lab leak theory over 80% likelihood https://www.rootclaim.com/analysis/What-is-the-source-of-COV...

How can you assign a probability/likelihood to vague statements like "There is some weak evidence regarding lax security and procedures at the Wuhan Institute of Virology"

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#72

Post by nighthawk454 »

scarmig wrote: post #50
lwf wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

s/trained/strained/

Strained is closer in Levenshtein distance, but I'd bet tainted was the original word.

It's also closer in "typo" distance (https://xkcd.com/1530/), although perhaps not with autocorrect.

edit: although now that I think of it, I suppose a "typo" distance is something of a weighted Levenshtein

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#75

Post by [deleted] »

whatshisface wrote: post #69
baggy_trough wrote: post #63

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why do you call it a conspiracy theory? There's nothing conspiratorial about it. Any politically sensitive organization will inherently do whatever it can do avoid blame. That's as natural as the force of gravity. I also don't understand why you say so vehemently that you don't believe it was engineered. Gain of function experiments are something they do in these labs!

I don't know what the OP was saying, but a lot of people use "engineered" as a byword for "released on purpose."

[deleted]

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#77

Post by orlovs »

danenania wrote: post #54
eloff wrote: post #42

There's basically no evidence either way, although the outbreak being in a city with a class 4 bio lab actively studying sars viruses does on the surface seem to make the lab leak more probable. Bit of a coincidence. What really makes me think though is the way China is being uncooperative. You'd think if they were innocent they wouldn't need to limit access to data and prevent investigation of the Wuhan lab. Maybe t…

Has anyone analyzed this with a Bayesian statistical approach? Considering that a zoonotic transfer could happen in a very large number of places on earth, I would imagine that the odds of an outbreak in any particular city would be quite small? With that in mind, how many virology labs are there doing gain-of-function research on coronaviruses? How many have had safety issues in the past? How many times have pathoge…

U know, this theory was dead due fact controversial politician said it loud. Ofc he had to keep mouth shut until point there were hard evidence. Still one of main reasons why it was dismissed who said, not what being said.

As global pandemic is complex issue where are many bolts and knobs. However, it still would be usefull why engine blowed up, not just why pilots acted badly during crash

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#78

Post by oogabooga123 »

cletus wrote: post #39

So I generally give like zero weight to conspiracy theories. That being said, I don't believe anyone can reasonably claim with any degree certainty that Covid was a lab-leak BUT the WHO investigation simply hasn't done their due diligence to a sufficient degree to eliminate this theory. Unfortunately the WHO's credibility is trained here. In the early days of the pandemic the WHO bent over backwards not to upset Chin…

> So I generally give like zero weight to conspiracy theories.

Why? Assigning a prior probability of zero to anything is a recipe for disaster, it means you can never change your belief.

Looks like you had enough of an open mind to hear some of the arguments in favor of this one, and it increased your posterior probability somewhat, so I guess “like zero” is your way of saying “close to zero but not zero”.

Have you tried giving other conspiracy theories a chance? I think you’ll find mixed results.

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#79

Post by TylerE »

s5300 wrote: post #35
JohnJamesRambo wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well I mean never letting Covid out (if that is the source) would have prevented 7-13 million extra deaths this year so it is worth thinking about how we don’t let another one out if it is possible. I disagree that it is less actionable. I am a former scientist. Proper handling of lab waste etc. is infinitely easier than having the whole world lock down, wear masks, and rapidly develop mRNA vaccines to try and put th…

Yes, and proper handling of nuclear bombs is infinitely easier than losing them or accidentally dropping them on your own soil, but the United States still managed to mess that up every now and then... Mistakes seem to happen despite just about any amount of preventative measures in our world.

Imagine my surprise when I learned that one of the 3 incidents with fully assembled weapons happened about 15 miles from where I live.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1961_Goldsboro_B-52_crash

Re: How I learned to stop worrying and love the lab-leak theory

#80

Post by 99_00 »

They are easing you into the revelation of the virus being a lab leak and the CCP being maliciously irresponsible costing millions of lives from the initial leak and holding back information after the fact.

Revealing it all at once would cause economic and social chaos. The racist assaults alone would be horrendous. Not to mention the political and economic consiquences.

It's no coincidence that the Uygar genocide is being talked about now despite going on for several years.

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