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The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

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Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#571

Post by Siira »

gonehome wrote: post #326
followtheplot wrote: post #294

"... proponents of lab escape can explain all the available facts about SARS2 considerably more easily than can those who favor natural emergence." "The natural emergence theory battles a bristling array of implausibilities." This is a fantastic article, but amazingly almost all of it is year-old news. Most of this was known in March 2020, and nearly all of it by the end of 2020. How does it take so long for the trut…

What bothers me about it is not only did it take a long time for the “truth to win”, but mainstream media orgs actively suppressed it because of tribal stupidity. It was used as an example of “fake news”: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/technology/biden-reality-... > “ Hoaxes, lies and collective delusions aren’t new, but the extent to which millions of Americans have embraced them may be. Thirty percent of Republ…

NYT only cares about keeping their stupid costumers happy within their echo chamber. It’s not a non-profit. Garbage desires in, garbage consequences out. The free market can’t do magic.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#573

Post by kansface »

newacct583 wrote: post #545
kansface wrote: post #467

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As claimed by Rogin, the medical research community is privately divided but largely unwilling to speak out publicly because they don’t want to be labeled conspiracy theorists, don’t want to be associated with supporting a position tangentially aligned with trump, and first and foremost don’t want to jeopardize their grants or careers. According to Rogin, Fauci did not so much covertly direct funds, but rather, quiet…

> the medical research community is privately divided but largely unwilling to speak out publicly because they don’t want to be labeled conspiracy theorists So there's a hidden truth that happens to confirm the priors of a bunch of highly-on-the-internet people, but without any evidence in public. And the fact that the evidence doesn't exist is being cited as an argument that it must exist because of asserted suppres…

> And the fact that the evidence doesn't exist is being cited as an argument that it must exist because of asserted suppression.

No, its not "the fact that it doesn't exist" that lends credence to existence. The incentives involved for everyone who ostensibly would look for its existence align to have them look the other way. Given other circumstantial evidence, that is suspicious!

> Seriously: it doesn't surprise you that the same folks that were so into Q a few months back are suddenly all aflutter with this omg-Fauci-created-covid nonsense?

As near as I can tell, your argument here is: create a crazy conspiracy theory, attribute it to Rogin, point to the conspiracy theory as proof that Rogin is crazy. No one in this thread nor Rogin have claimed that Fauci literally created the corona virus. The claims are 1. Fuaci is a proponent of research that Obama shut down because its of little value and dangerous, 2. a lab in china with shit opsec was doing the same research on corona viruses which happened to be where the outbreak started, 3. Fauci re-instituted the research program under Trump without input from the Trump administration.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#574

Post by IIAOPSW »

gonehome wrote: post #567
IIAOPSW wrote: post #564

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>We should give a shit about the truth independent of tribal affiliation We should, but the reality is we don't. (the general we, not the specific you and me). There would be far more people (in the West) accepting the natural origin theory if the virus started in the EU or US. People give a shit about "the truth"^{tm} only when it suits them. Some people in China have done some really spurious gene sequencing studie…

> “That really gets to the heart of it. Was it negligence, or was it just a thing that could have happened at any of the BSL labs with some small probability? What exactly is the mistake rate in similar labs around the world? Was it really more likely to have happened in WuHan, or is that just where the cosmic dice landed? There's this pervasive assumption in your comment and others that the virus escaping a Chinese…

Is it still "PR" when the person writing it has genuinely drank the cool-aid? My point wasn't about China releasing a bullshit study as propaganda. My point was the lab hypothesis reeks of similar "motivated science" but we can't see it in our own cultural context as easily as we can see it in others.

Anyway we could look at the "cosmic dice rate" for all the labs we do know about. But the funny thing about that is we can ask and reasonably answer the question about low-probability but ultra-high risk research without ever needing to investigate this particular outbreaks origin story. Conversely, even if tomorrow some one dug up smoking gun evidence that it evolved naturally in the wild and had nothing to do with any lab, the question about lab risks and future pandemics would still be worth asking. Could you imagine anyone saying "well I used to be in favor of reviewing our risk factors, but now that I know coronavirus was all natural I no longer give any shits about the safety risks of this research."?

If you care about future pandemics, there's a million better ways to spend your energy than trying to figure out if there was or wasn't a coverup in a (formerly) obscure lab in a (formerly) obscure city over a year ago in a country that isn't known for transparency. Anyone who actively contributes to the "debate" is being counterproductive. In my view, the main practical use of the lab origin theory is as an inadvertent shibboleth to identify who's hooked on tribalism / motivated reasoning / spurious logic.

>The truth absent political tribalism is the thing that can persuade people.

This sounds like the sort of thing I would have said before "post-factual" entered our lexicon. Behind every cynic is a disappointed idealist.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#575

Post by watertom »

China knew they had a problem in late 2019, when there were very few cases.

The COVID presents as the flu, the symptoms are the same, so that means without a test there needs to be some other way to identify that a new virus is spreading.

The way to identify if a new virus is spreading is basically 3 ways:

Dramatic increase in cases:

In the U.S. for the last 20 years there has been a low of 9.3M cases and a high of 45M cases. China has had similar numbers, so in order to get someone's attention we'd need a ridiculous spike in cases in a very short time, and in October, November, and early December China did not have that ridiculous spike in cases. So they would not have known a new virus was circulating based on cases.

Different symptoms:

Covid presents as the flu, so there was no way to know that a new virus was circulating based on symptoms

Increased deaths:

In the U.S. for the last 20 years we've seen a range of 12,000 to 65,0000 deaths, a pretty wide range. China has seen similar numbers, so in order to get someone's attention we'd need to see a huge spike in deaths before it would get someone's attention, and again in October, November and early December China did not have a huge spike in deaths.

Basically the 3 ways to know something different is happening, didn't take place.

Which leads me to he most important question no one is asking, "How did China know they had a problem when there wasn't any data that would tell them something different was happening?"

This for me is the real question. IMHO the only way China was able to discover they had something different going on is because they had prior knowledge or information.

I don't think this was malicious, I think they were studying the virus in the lab, and a Jr. member of the team did something dumb or had an accident, and wanting to avoid getting into trouble the Jr. member of the team covered up what happened.

Then that Jr. member of the team got sick, and some other people they knew got sick, probably other members of the lab team and it was at his point Lab management knew they had a problem. This is how China knew they had a problem when only a handful of people are sick.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#576

Post by [deleted] »

meowface wrote: post #373
gonehome wrote: post #326

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What bothers me about it is not only did it take a long time for the “truth to win”, but mainstream media orgs actively suppressed it because of tribal stupidity. It was used as an example of “fake news”: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/technology/biden-reality-... > “ Hoaxes, lies and collective delusions aren’t new, but the extent to which millions of Americans have embraced them may be. Thirty percent of Republ…

Worse yet, a recent NYT headline described the lab escape hypothesis as "debunked", which is even more egregious and incorrect than "baseless". >Ex-C.D.C. Director Favors Debunked Virus Origin Theory Basically trying to portray the ex-CDC director - a virologist - as an unhinged nutjob for saying such a thing. After a ton of backlash, they relented and changed it from "debunked" to "unproven" and added an editor's no…

[deleted]

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#577

Post by rastapasta42 »

newacct583 wrote: post #269
AzzieElbab wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I read Josh Rogin earlier articles on the subject. He also recently implicated Fauchi for covertly funding gain of function research, and he is pushing for congressional oversight/investigation https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/cong...

> He also recently implicated Fauchi for covertly funding gain of function research I'm sorry, that essay (which is an opinion piece, not a work of investigative journalism) says absolutely nothing of the sort. What's your source on that? That's a pretty ridiculous accusation if you don't have evidence.

Here's the direct discussion between Rand Paul and Fauci on this topic: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TkE_mw6bRcg

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#578

Post by RC_ITR »

IIAOPSW wrote: post #566
RC_ITR wrote: post #411

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know you’re trying to be high minded, but yes if it escaped from a lab, China should stop doing independent unsupervised virology. Full stop. EDIT: If a kid crashes a car, you sure as hell are going to make them take more driving lessons before letting them drive again. And hearing them then say “it was a cosmic accident, why should anyone be allowed to drive” is not going to absolve them of negligence

China isn't a kid. People crash cars all the time and go back to driving the next day. There is absolutely such a thing as legally recognized non-negligent car accidents. Your example doesn't at all support your point. Edit: Should any nation do "independent unsupervised virology". I've heard people in this very thread say that the lab theory, if true, means we should "stop funding this research in China". I take tha…

Ok, sorry for being folksy, maybe this works better.

A certified truck driver crashes their truck because they didn't follow the strict safety procedures that the trucking regulatory body set to prevent said crash. They were hauling Anhydrous Ammonia. The resulting blast kills 4 million people globally.

Are you going to make them take more safety lessons before letting them haul again?

Or will hearing them then say “it was a cosmic accident, why should anyone be allowed to haul” absolve them of negligence?

Maybe to further your point, should everyone stop hauling Anhydrous Ammonia, or should just the person who let the accident happen?

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