Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…
While I won't dispute that Tesla's share price is high given where the company is at right now when valued as an auto business, there are a few things I think are worth mentioning and commenting on in your post. > Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. This couldn't be further from the truth. While making a prototype EV is relatively easy, yes. EV indu…
Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
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Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#132Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…
The statement "Tesla market value is the same as everybody else put together" means either Tesla is expensive or everybody else is cheap or the statement is inaccurate. It's a little bit of all three. All other car companies are primarily debt financed rather than equity financed. Ford's market cap is $45B, but because it has $120B in debt which means it is worth $120B to it's bondholders and $45B to stockholders for…
I believe that's a bit misleading because it includes Ford's lending arm. They borrow money and lend it out at higher rates. So lots of Ford debt is lent back out to consumers at profit.
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#133Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…
The statement "Tesla market value is the same as everybody else put together" means either Tesla is expensive or everybody else is cheap or the statement is inaccurate. It's a little bit of all three. All other car companies are primarily debt financed rather than equity financed. Ford's market cap is $45B, but because it has $120B in debt which means it is worth $120B to it's bondholders and $45B to stockholders for…
The majority of their debt comes from financing the sales of their cars to fleets, dealers, or consumers. This earned them 1.7B last year.
Tesla's real advantage imo comes down to not having dealers eat into their margins.
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#134Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#135Earlier quoted context omitted.
Actually, this will likely be unpopular here, short sellers do have an important role in the economy. In the case of GME and more recently short sellers have been making money on crushing viable businesses (which they should not be allowed) but historically they expose fraudulent companies. I don't like companies getting pushed out of business by big short sellers or making money but just publishing bad research unde…
I personally am against selling equity that you don't own. It creates so many failure modes for the equity markets (failure to deliver chief among them). And I wouldn't be surprised if the net impact of short selling were actually positive for spot price, because shorts tend to sell into strength but they often squeeze into weakness. We've gotten accustomed to short selling and buybacks, but the equity markets would…
no, it isn't. this is nonsense, you're just trying to equate some reasonable market activities with something that sounds a bit scary and weird because you don't understand it.
> ... in computer programming, we have to be careful about recursive behaviors.
no, we don't. no more than of any other failure to terminate a loop.
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#136Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…
I'm not one to typically paraphrase billionaires, or think they're too connected to reality... but something I heard Mark Cuban say the other day was kind of "oh, shit that's true" moment for me. It was something to the affect of (I can't find the clip at the moment), "Back in 2010 we never thought we'd see a company hit $1 trillion. We never thought Apple or Amazon (et. al) would be able to continue their growth yea…
What's the basis for this? Battery tech evolution and ICE cars have no more (safe) optimizations to make to get costs down?
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#137Earlier quoted context omitted.
F150 Lightning being unveiled in a couple days is a good example of this. The F150 is the most popular vehicle in America & this has a good chance at being a pretty big success.
What crypto can I use at checkout?
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#138Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#139Earlier quoted context omitted.
The statement "Tesla market value is the same as everybody else put together" means either Tesla is expensive or everybody else is cheap or the statement is inaccurate. It's a little bit of all three. All other car companies are primarily debt financed rather than equity financed. Ford's market cap is $45B, but because it has $120B in debt which means it is worth $120B to it's bondholders and $45B to stockholders for…
Debt is a good thing for Ford! The majority of their debt comes from financing the sales of their cars to fleets, dealers, or consumers. This earned them 1.7B last year. Tesla's real advantage imo comes down to not having dealers eat into their margins. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ford_Motor_Credit_Company
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#140Earlier quoted context omitted.
It's a very meaningful distinction. If you have a put option, the stock can go to the moon and back multiple times, and you can still end up in the money on the strike date. If you have a short position, you're going to get margin called on the way to the moon and it's "game over".
True, but if it doesn't go anywhere you lose it all with a put, and lose far less with a short (just the borrow fee).