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Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

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Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#101

> $530 million bet > long puts against 800,100 shares I find the title misleading. Unless I misunderstand, Michael Burry has not actually put $530M of his money at risk. He's made a much smaller, leveraged bet. $530M is just the notional value.

Can someone ELI5 how this works to those of us who only buy and sell things? I've looked up the definitions, but I'm curious about the purposes and practical risk/reward scenarios of this particular sort of bet.

I gives you $1K today. In exchange, we agree now, that in two month, I can buy your car for $10K if I want to.

I just bought a 2-month expiry put option at a strike of $10k on your car.

Two month later, I check the resell value for your car.

If it's more than $10k, let's say 13, I buy yours at 10 and resell it at 13K. I won 3-1=$2k

If it's less that $10k, I just pass, I lost $1k.

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#103
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And, they have a genius but an unstable genius as a CEO where no one knows what he will do next. Not sure how the stock market quantifies that.

Are you saying they should get a stable genius in?

Stable geniuses are unfortunately even more rare than unstable ones.

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#104

Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…

> I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. I'm not sure really. They keep throwing the entire company at insanely poorly leveraged bets with unfulfilled promises. (Cybertruck is on track to be delivered at a longer timeframe than any car tesla has ever made, they haven't even built the factory or unveiled the final design, same for Semi and Roadster, the new Model S was supposed to b…

They bet the company on the OG roadster, S, and 3.

They don't need to now. The 3 and Y are quite successful and quite profitable.

The Truck, Semi, Roadster, Leaf Blower, and such are all distractions that aren't worth building until they've managed to establish much larger battery volumes and aren't selling every Y and 3 they make months before they make them.

What's their run rate? They've got a ton of cash and viable products (3 and Y) where there are people lined up to buy them before they're even made. And they've got the supercharger network which is an enormous differentiator against any other EV.

Their biggest threat is if there's some enormous unseen flaw in their battery design where they get swamped with battery warranty claims.

The share price is absurdly high, but it is similarly absurd to project the company going out of business.

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#105
post #94

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I won't short them tough, in the end I'm just a dog on the internet and have no clue how stonks work. To be clear, Michael Burry didn't short Tesla, he bought put options, which gives him the right but not the obligation to sell Tesla stock for a certain price, on a certain date. If the bet works against him, his options expire worthless. This puts an upper limit on his losses. If you have an actual short position,…

Actually we have no idea if he is short TSLA. The fact that he has purchased TSLA put options is from the SEC Form 13F which he's required to file quarterly. Short positions (for some reason) are not on the 13F. So he could be long TSLA and have purchased put options as a hedge or any number of other strategies.

You can tell he's short from him talking his book on Twitter.

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#106

> $530 million bet > long puts against 800,100 shares I find the title misleading. Unless I misunderstand, Michael Burry has not actually put $530M of his money at risk. He's made a much smaller, leveraged bet. $530M is just the notional value.

Can someone ELI5 how this works to those of us who only buy and sell things? I've looked up the definitions, but I'm curious about the purposes and practical risk/reward scenarios of this particular sort of bet.

When you buy a “put” you are entering into a contract that gives you the right, but not the obligation, to sell X number of shares of Acme Class A common stock for $Y/share on (or sometimes within) a specific date.

So let’s say Acme Class A is currently trading at $50/share. If you think, for whatever reason, Acme Class A common stock will be trading at $1 next week you might want to buy a put that lets you sell 100,000 shares for $10/share. If the price of Acme Class A stays the same, you would never exercise the option to sell because you’d lose money - why would you sell Acme Class A for $10/share when you could sell it on the open market for $50/share? But if you’re right, and Acme Class A is trading at $1/share, you would then of course want to sell as many shares as possible at the $10/share rate. So you’d go on the open market, buy yourself 100,000 shares for $100,000, then turn right around and exercise your option to sell those shares for $1,000,000.

So the only money at risk is the cost of the contract itself because you don’t have to actually buy the shares until you decide whether you want to exercise the option to sell them.

If you want a put contract that allows you the option to sell 100,000 shares of TSLA for $0.01/share tomorrow it wouldn’t cost much because it’s highly unlikely you’d exercise the option and so, for the person on the other side of the agreement, it would basically be free money. When there’s more uncertainty then the cost of buying the contract is higher because the person on the other side is taking a risk that they’ll be stuck buying a bunch of securities at a price much higher than what they’re actually worth.

TLDR: when you buy a put contract you’re essentially paying money to someone to lock in a price.

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#107
post #66

Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…

And, they have a genius but an unstable genius as a CEO where no one knows what he will do next. Not sure how the stock market quantifies that.

Elon Musk isn't a genius. He's a dumb guy who got lucky. Go and read literally anything he writes. Obvious dumb guy.

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#108

Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…

> I won't short them tough, in the end I'm just a dog on the internet and have no clue how stonks work. To be clear, Michael Burry didn't short Tesla, he bought put options, which gives him the right but not the obligation to sell Tesla stock for a certain price, on a certain date. If the bet works against him, his options expire worthless. This puts an upper limit on his losses. If you have an actual short position,…

I'm not sure that's necessarily meaningful. Sure, you pay for optionality in a put as opposed to a short, but it may be easier and cheaper to buy a put than finance a short if you believe the stock will go down. The downside isn't unlimited if you short, since I don't think you'd be on the hook if you hit a margin call, your collateral would simply be seized and your position would be exited.

I'm sure there's other intricacies in short vs buy a put, but I don't think you can infer too much from the choice without knowing a lot more. I think all you could say is that he's bearish on the stock in the short term.

I could be wrong though so I would love to hear other interpretations or whether there's some liability apart from your margin in a naked short.

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#109
post #66

Earlier quoted context omitted.

And, they have a genius but an unstable genius as a CEO where no one knows what he will do next. Not sure how the stock market quantifies that.

Are you saying they should get a stable genius in?

There is at least one of those available who recently left his previous position...

Joking, joking :D

Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla

#110
post #100

Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…

F150 Lightning being unveiled in a couple days is a good example of this. The F150 is the most popular vehicle in America & this has a good chance at being a pretty big success.

What crypto can I use at checkout?
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