The only new reveal is the dollar figure. Burry has been very openly (and vocally) short on Tesla for a while now. He has been Tweeting a bunch about it since September last year. Tesla shares are up ~75% since those original Tweets. "The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent" applies to both amateur traders and the most seasoned investor/genius alike.
Oh you're completely missing the nuisance of what we just learned. Sure, he's been talking short since September, but the size of his position has grown considerably since then - almost certainly timing the S&P inclusion (sorry index investors, you quite literally paid the top price for a stock that has lost almost 45% since you bought it). He's almost certainly made a killing with his position and the beauty is we d…
Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
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Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#92Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…
And, they have a genius but an unstable genius as a CEO where no one knows what he will do next. Not sure how the stock market quantifies that.
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#93Earlier quoted context omitted.
> If you have an actual short position, your potential losses are unlimited. Isn’t this a bit like saying that the potential upside of holding any stock is unlimited?
Yes. Is that not true?
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#94Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…
> I won't short them tough, in the end I'm just a dog on the internet and have no clue how stonks work. To be clear, Michael Burry didn't short Tesla, he bought put options, which gives him the right but not the obligation to sell Tesla stock for a certain price, on a certain date. If the bet works against him, his options expire worthless. This puts an upper limit on his losses. If you have an actual short position,…
Short positions (for some reason) are not on the 13F.
So he could be long TSLA and have purchased put options as a hedge or any number of other strategies.
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#95Earlier quoted context omitted.
Short sellers aren’t pessimists. They’re realists.
It's not even about that. It's just about not wasting an opportunity to make money. Some stocks go through cycles: growth, then correction, then growth again. Shorting stock during market corrections helps you maximize your profits. I mean, I can imagine Michael Burry cashing $200M profits when Tesla price goes down, and then switching sides and going long. The most important thing in the stock markets is to remain r…
Does he have some supernatural ability to time the market when everyone else fails?
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#96> $530 million bet > long puts against 800,100 shares I find the title misleading. Unless I misunderstand, Michael Burry has not actually put $530M of his money at risk. He's made a much smaller, leveraged bet. $530M is just the notional value.
So how would you go about making an educated reverse engineering claim on the stake at risk without knowing his other legs nor expiry dates? Is it even possible? How about a wide range?
For example, a $450 put for September 17th 2021 would cost about $16.70 per share:
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/options?strike=450&stra...
One option counts for 100 shares, so that would be a (8001 * 16.70 * 100) 13.36 million dollar bet. Suppose that TSLA is worth only $400 on that date, with your right to sell at $450 you'd be in the money for 40 million dollars, or roughly $26 million in profits. If TSLA is worth $450 or more on that date, your options expire worthless.
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#97Earlier quoted context omitted.
Tesla isn't a car company, though. They even removed "Motors" from their name years ago - showing wider interest, and not just batteries. Solar roofing as well, and others. I don't hold TSLA right now, regretfully, I entered pre-split at $27 and sold at $200. I also think the current price is way too high, for what it's worth. WAY too high. But it's not at all about cars, at least not for me, when trying to justify t…
Take a look at the "Common Sense Skeptic" youtube channel. Tesla's purchase of Solar City is a scandal on itself, it was never a play on entering the solar roof business. It was just a bail out using Tesla's shareholders money to save Musks and his business partners (which were Musks cousins btw) investments. This channel also destroys all the hype surrounding Starship, it's a joy to watch.
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#98Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…
Ten years ago, Apple was worth $297 billion dollars, today it's worth $2.1 trillion dollars. I think Tesla stands a good a chance to be worth these seemingly absurd valuations. The market price isn't solely defined by the current value. With tech companies especially, it reflects expected value, and Tesla still has a lot of room to grow. I'd be more skeptical but EVs are eventually going to cost way less to make than typical ICE (internal combustion engine) cars, and per unit that savings translates into a lot of fucking profit. Not to mention the additional profit they're raking in thanks to the public's image of Tesla's and the experience generally being "magical" (even if gimmicky). Also, a "green crypto" if a Tesla branded play (I feel musk is bringing this soon) will cause a pretty gigantic boost to the company's bottom line.
For at least the next 2-5 years Tesla is gonna be pretty safe, and I'd guess that 2-5 will buy it like 3-5 more years just being the incumbent... I don't think Burry is going to be to happy on this one. Mark Spiegel has already fallen to the beast, and I suspect Burry is likely going to as well.
shrug just my two cents.
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#99Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…
I'd think of Tesla as of an iPhone for affluent hipsters. Teslas remain connected to the manufacturer that collects extensive info on drivers (spying, some would say) and can use it for marketing or other purposes later. Teslas can be a powerful distribution channel if Musk figures a way to discreetly advertise to them right in their cars. Teslas are a golf club in a sense: a directory of important people, except tha…
Your comment kind of reminds me of how much shit "Big Tech" gets for data collection, just because they're highly visible, while the really scary shit (e.g. cell carriers offering granular per-user location data APIs to anybody with money) flies under the radar because it doesn't have that sexy down-with-big-tech angle that (ironically?) seems to drive the most clicks.
That's not to say the usual "Big Tech" suspects are choirboys, but the public discourse's focus on their data collection activities is absurdly myopic.
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#100Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…