“The stock market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”
Michael Burry can remain solvent for quite a while
Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
31–40 of 301 posts
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#32I'm having a hard time with this one since from the article it doesn't seem like Burry is seeing anything that isn't very well discussed/analyzed already regarding Tesla. Short sellers have gotten very burned in the past in gambles like this, but they've also sometimes made money. Given how historically irrational the market has been about Tesla, this just seems like a gamble rather than the well-reasoned short posit…
It's likely he's already up massively on his PUTs, which were purchased sometime in Q1. We don't really know the strikes or expiry dates, so it's hard to say.
He announced it on Twitter when Tesla was around $580. Not sure if he averaged down his price, but I'd assume so.
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#33>Michael Burry is long puts ....so short?
short/long derivatives doesn't indicate sentiment. I would say "bearish" here.
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#34Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#35Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…
On the internet no one knows you are a dog :)
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#36Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…
The world needs enormous amounts of stationary storage to transition to zero carbon electrical generation, and nuclear ain’t happening. Tesla sells batteries in lots of products, some with better margins than others.
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#37> $530 million bet > long puts against 800,100 shares I find the title misleading. Unless I misunderstand, Michael Burry has not actually put $530M of his money at risk. He's made a much smaller, leveraged bet. $530M is just the notional value.
Well, they got your attention didn't they? A half a billion dollar "bet" is much more eye-catching than "smaller, leveraged bet."
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#38> $530 million bet > long puts against 800,100 shares I find the title misleading. Unless I misunderstand, Michael Burry has not actually put $530M of his money at risk. He's made a much smaller, leveraged bet. $530M is just the notional value.
So how would you go about making an educated reverse engineering claim on the stake at risk without knowing his other legs nor expiry dates? Is it even possible? How about a wide range?
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#39Teslas price is just too high. I think they will be very successful and become a big, dominant car maker. But their price only makes sense if they end up being the only car maker left. That's not realistic. Building an electric car is not that hard, especially if Tesla already did all the hard lifting for you. For a while I was thinking that the battery play - becoming the number 1 battery supplier - will justify the…
Tesla isn't a car company, though. They even removed "Motors" from their name years ago - showing wider interest, and not just batteries. Solar roofing as well, and others.
I don't hold TSLA right now, regretfully, I entered pre-split at $27 and sold at $200. I also think the current price is way too high, for what it's worth. WAY too high. But it's not at all about cars, at least not for me, when trying to justify the valuation. It's about energy at large scale, and transportation at large scale. Not just car sales. Or battery sales.
Edit: Currently P/E is ~570! I remember it being 1,300 recently. Yikes.
Re: Michael Burry of ‘The Big Short’ reveals a $530M bet against Tesla
#40Eventually somebody on Wall Street is going to figure out that Tesla’s business is batteries, that Tesla’s batteries are getting good enough to compete with natural gas peaker plants, and that there is a massive effort underway to convert our electric grid away from burning fossil fuels.