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There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

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Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#421
post #191

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sweden's early success with their 'herd immunity' experiment was short lived. They failed to actually achieve 'herd immunity' and did not avoid the eventual virus death toll: https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/sweden-cris... By comparison Finland, it's neighbor took a much stricter approach and never reached the same level of death. Finland: 931 deaths at 168 per million with a 1.0% death rate. https://…

Can we then talk about the economic disruption felt by each respectively compared to the 0.4% difference in death rate? I don’t have insights into either county.

That 0.4% difference in death rate is measuring survivability as it records the chance of dying from the virus.

That 0.4% difference suggests Finland's health system was better than Sweden's at handling the virus, as your chances of dying were much less.

When it comes to actual deaths Finland was doing over 830% better (i.e. 168 per million compared to 1406 per million) than Sweden.

Edit: Fixed my bad math. My 90% better figure was out by a factor close to 100.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#422
post #392

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You mean cases started to drop after everyone stopped traveling for Christmas and vaccines started to hit meaningful numbers?

Who knows. The alternative was not closing schools while cases were increasing exponentially. Is that a theory we should be testing when we've already paused elective medical procedures due to the wave of COVID patients?

I said "in hindsight", meaning that we don't fault the decisions at the time. I think now is when we begin (without blame) to start evaluating what worked and what didn't.

Unfortunately, some of the things done were disruptive, and if they were also ineffective, that will lead to blame. But our mission should be honesty first, and have faith that reasonable people can accept that the best decisions were taken with the information available at the time.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#423

Earlier quoted context omitted.

None of Thailand, Vietnam and Mongolia are islands and their handling of covid is world class compared to parts of Europe and the US. These countries are also far poorer and in the case of Thailand especially that has been a major contributing factor, as they've been less able to afford closing their country to tourism.

Both Thailand and Vietnam have been devastated economically, and even with various levels of lockdown both country is currently experiencing the highest number of cases since the beginning of the pandemic. Also, the vaccinated population in either country is at low single digit percentage, so no end in sight for the harsh measures. Compare that to the US or Europe where 50% of population is (partially) vaccinated and…

> even with various levels of lockdown both country is currently experiencing the highest number of cases since the beginning of the pandemic.

"highest number of cases" here meaning between 1 and 2 cases per million people per day.

For context, the United States is currently at its lowest daily case count since June last year, which is slightly above 100 cases per million people per day.

"Even with various levels of lockdown both countries have 1-2% of the case count of countries that didn't treat this seriously" isn't quite as dramatic of a statement though I guess.

(all figures using the typical 7 day rolling average and data available from Mackuba)

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#424

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still, the vast majority of cases in California have been in the metropolitan areas that have also had the strongest restrictions.

> Still, the vast majority of cases in California have been in the metropolitan areas that have also had the strongest restrictions. So are the vast majority of people , and greater population density makes it harder to control the spread of communicable disease. So you’d expect, all other things being equal, not only thr vast majority of cases but the highest per capita cases to be in the metro areas. But, actually,…

>the highest per capita infections (both total and current) were mostly in rural, not metropolitan, counties.

Can you please cite your sources for this claim? I just did the math using the numbers of infections[0] and the county populations[1] and it doesn't really seem to match up with your claim at all.

There are 58 counties in California.

San Bernardino, LA, and Riverside counties are numbers 4, 5, 6 respectively for highest cases per capita and all have populations above 2.2 million.

Of the bottom 10 counties in cases per capita, only 2 have a population larger than 100k (SF, Humboldt)

[0] https://usafacts.org/visualizations/coronavirus-covid-19-spr...

[1] https://worldpopulationreview.com/us-counties/states/ca

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#425

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t have anything to add except that California is huge and very unevenly applied “lockdown” - there are many towns a where businesses remained open or reopened frequently, but the big cities did have large shelter in place efforts. It would be interesting to compare on the municipal level if the data was that granular.

According to a study in PNAS, shelter-in-place policies in the US did not work: https://www.pnas.org/content/118/15/e2019706118 Another study in Eur J Clin Inv had similar findings comparing countries: https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/eci.13484 COVID went wild basically everywhere. There were a few strong exceptions: China (apparently), Australia, New Zealand and some others. What these had in common was v…

In the UK (which has pretty good test capacity) the infection rate slightly lags the lockdown restrictions as you would expect from a working policy, so I think it can be successful.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#426

This has me a bit confused: I look at the stats on cases and deaths per capita across various U.S. states, including California (which was very locked down, at least in theory) and Florida (which was flippant towards risks of contagion), and many states in between. The per capita cases+deaths are nearly identical across many states with very different approaches. This left me really wondering which measures were and…

At least one study was done in Florida comparing counties that had mask mandates vs those that did not. The general conclusion matches your observation, mask mandates did not appear to have a material effect on any covid related metrics (infections, hospitalizations, deaths, ect.)

This is a bit nuanced because lots of people wore masks without a mandate, but it is also true that many people are pretty anti mask and definitely won't wear one if not forced to.

From my perspective it is pretty clear that masks did not have a large enough protective effect to show up in aggregate data.

As far as lockdowns go, they work until you end them, at which point you have just delayed the inevitable.

If you want to look at the data yourself, I would highly recommend the following site run by a prof at University of Illinois (use the population normalized graphs): http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/

Having a hard time finding the primary study I mentioned but I have provided links with some (population normalized) data below.

Florida counties (scroll down to second graph near the bottom for the start of the discussion): https://rationalground.com/after-nine-months-we-still-know-m...

Various graphs showing infection rate pre and post mask mandate: https://rationalground.com/mask-charts/

More mask graphs, mostly US states: https://rationalground.com/post-thanksgiving-mask-charts-sti...

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#427

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Still, the vast majority of cases in California have been in the metropolitan areas that have also had the strongest restrictions.

The vast majority of cases will basically always be in big cities because that's where the most people live. We'd need per-capita data for it to be a useful comparison.

It's out there. It's also not hard to take raw data and divide by the population size which is publicly available for all counties and cities.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#428
post #95

This has me a bit confused: I look at the stats on cases and deaths per capita across various U.S. states, including California (which was very locked down, at least in theory) and Florida (which was flippant towards risks of contagion), and many states in between. The per capita cases+deaths are nearly identical across many states with very different approaches. This left me really wondering which measures were and…

IMHO if you want to understand what an effective response looks like - don't look at North America or Europe. Think Vietnam, Australia, New Zealand, and many parts of Africa, all of which had vastly better outcomes. Of course, I'm not an epidemiologist or public health expert, so while I have some guesses I'm not sure what exactly they did that was more effective - but there's no question that it was more effective.…

Africa: Hot climate, poor testing, data likely not accurate

Australia: Island, hot climate, pretty heavy travel/quarantine restrictions

New Zealand: Island, rural with very dispersed population, heavily restricted international travel

People may argue that the UK is also an island but fared much worse. To that I would say 1) Much colder climate 2) did not heavily restrict travel like AUS and NZ did.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#429

This has me a bit confused: I look at the stats on cases and deaths per capita across various U.S. states, including California (which was very locked down, at least in theory) and Florida (which was flippant towards risks of contagion), and many states in between. The per capita cases+deaths are nearly identical across many states with very different approaches. This left me really wondering which measures were and…

At least one study was done in Florida comparing counties that had mask mandates vs those that did not. The general conclusion matches your observation, mask mandates did not appear to have a material effect on any covid related metrics (infections, hospitalizations, deaths, ect.) This is a bit nuanced because lots of people wore masks without a mandate, but it is also true that many people are pretty anti mask and d…

As far as lockdowns go, they work until you end them, at which point you have just delayed the inevitable.

Where in the data can you see this? Lockdowns don't appear to work. If they did, then places that didn't use them or cancelled them very early would have had drastically higher numbers than other places that kept them and the curves would be clearly moved around. But that isn't visible in the data.

That said, I'm glad you posted those links and agree with you on the lack of effectiveness of mask mandates. I've been posting links like those and various other studies for the past year because it was clear within weeks that these measures weren't having any impact. Sometimes those posts got upvoted but mostly, down down down. Very interesting that the top comment on this thread is one pointing out that lockdowns and mask mandates don't work: it used to be quite the taboo to point that out in this forum. And just recently there were the threads about the WIV, where again, many posts that a year ago would have been sitting at -4 and near-unreadably gray were sitting near the top. It's good to see that some rationality is returning to these discussions, because the data is public and easy to browse. It's not hard to flip through a bunch of countries and observe that you can't figure out when lockdowns/mask mandates started/ended with any reliability by looking at the data, even though affecting the data is the only justification for those measures' existence.

Re: There have been 7M-13M excess deaths worldwide during the pandemic

#430

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the intentions were good, but it's also probably true that public health officials have been reluctant to admit when there just wasn't much they could do about the situation that would make a major difference, save for employing totalitarian enforcement measures that no one wanted. Masks in public are not all that burdensome, so imo the mandates were reasonable regardless of the actual impact, but I wish they…

> wasn't much they could do about the situation that would make a major difference, save for employing totalitarian enforcement measures that no one wanted. Are you insane? There are tons of countries that are not totalitarian, with big land borders, that have done far better than the US. There are countries (SK, Japan) with tiny numbers of cases. There are obviously thousands of things that could have been different…

Are you insane? There are tons of countries that are not totalitarian, with big land borders, that have done far better than the US .... There are obviously thousands of things that could have been differently and or better.

The latter part doesn't follow logically from the first. It can be that performance is essentially random, or determined by geographical factors, or by the pre-existing health of the population, and so on. The assumption that governments can control respiratory viruses like SARS-CoV-2 is at the heart of all of this but needs very strong evidential support, given how strong the evidence against this belief is by now.

If you look at the data then there are no obvious explanations for why some countries did better than others. It's far from insane to observe this. There are a lot of plausible sounding explanations but they all fall apart due to exceptions, e.g. Japan did very little for a long time and yet has hardly been affected. In fact Asia in general has not been strongly affected (Taiwan is another example) despite a wide variety of response severities, which raises the question of whether Australia/New Zealand's relatively good performance is due to location rather than behaviour. Meanwhile Latin America was very hard hit despite some truly totalitarian responses by the authorities.

Your own explanation is especially weak because it appears to be based on a cartoon New York Times interpretation of what happened outside the USA. The British government's messaging was the polar opposite of Trump's. The PM appeared next to two chief scientists every single day, and the government was basically replaced by SAGE, the scientific advisory board. The SAGE scientists took total control of the messaging including designing large scale ad campaigns specifically designed by behavioral psychologists to provoke as much fear as possible in the population. The UK also has by far the highest vaccine uptake in the world. The whole thing had a singular focus, the messaging was very well organized to an extent that evokes people's worst fears of competent totalitarianism and so the idea that the UK was somehow doing the same things as Trump just has no basis in reality.

Yet, in the end, it didn't seem to matter. Sweden has had lower excess deaths despite consistent year-long messaging of chill, relax, it's no big deal. Hence, politics can be pretty conclusively eliminated as the source of any differences.

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