That great. I've got so many questions.
Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
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Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#12I feel like this is pretty non sequitur. He seems to imply that above some magic number of transistors intelligence will simply manifest itself. Intelligence is more than just computational power.
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#13It always seemed self-evident to me that to attain something like human intelligence, machines would have to share human human visual and auditory senses and be bootstrapped to a point where some great influx of knowledge could take place.
We now have that body of knowledge, audio, visual, and instantaneous worldwide communications.
I have to agree with Kurzweil that, surely machines that broadly exceed humans cannot be far away, though it may be their poetry will leave something to be desired.
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#14When I look at history I don't see people that expected incorrect rates of growth, I see people that predicted incorrect directions of growth.
When nuclear power was new people predicted the future would be shaped by massive amounts of clean/cheap power. When air travel was new we predicted that everyone would fly everywhere.
The singularity is our version of the fusion powered car, or the personal jetpack.
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#15Summary of every post from KurzweilAI.net since it's launch years ago: "Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence and a singularity will happen. Why? Technology gets more advanced." Broken record...
Somebody needs to introduce Kurzweil to the concept of the asymptote.
I agree. Something like this maybe?
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#16The assertion in the title is nonsense because "human intelligence" is not properly understood at this point. There is still much debate as to what drives the brain, and whether there is more to human intelligence than just the physical brain. Even if we could completely duplicate a human brain biologically, would it just start working automatically? Would it have feelings? Would it be able to learn if we could attach sensory inputs? This is not known. It's quite possible that there is much more to human intelligence than massive computing power.
See for example http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mind-body_problem
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#17By 2026, apparently: "But because we’re doubling the rate of progress every decade, we’ll see a century of progress–at today’s rate–in only 25 calendar years." "In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by around 2020. By 2030, it will take a village of human brains (around a thousand) to match $1000 of computing." So, have sup…
Estimates of the computing power of human brain vary widely, the ones that have some logic behind them range from 0.1 to 1000 petaflops. IMHO, they tend to be very "pro-brain", and should be seen as an upper limit.
Currently, the fastest supercomputer does abt 8 petaflops. This might be already 80 times more than the power of a human brain. And it could be less.. but where is your 10^10 factor from?
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#18I feel like this is pretty non sequitur. He seems to imply that above some magic number of transistors intelligence will simply manifest itself. Intelligence is more than just computational power.
Indeed. I can believe that (maybe) sometime within the next few decades we'll have hardware theoretically capable of running a simulation of a human-level intelligence. I don't see any indication that we'll have the relevant software, nor any particularly good idea of how to write it.
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#19Will strong AI ever enjoy a gin and tonic at the end of work on a summer's day? Will it ever feel the endorphin release from a strong run on the treadmill? Of course these are rhetorical questions. AI, however you define it, is a machine, a tool. It may become arbitrarily powerful, but that's all it will ever be; and it will always be a creation of man.
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#20Mitch Kapor and Ray Kurzweil made a public bet on this back in 2002. Mitch challenged that "By 2029 no computer - or 'machine intelligence' - will have passed the Turing Test." Stakes: $20k to the EFF or Kurzweil Foundation depending on the winner. See: http://longbets.org/1/