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TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

reuters.com

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Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#301

Post by croes »

jeremiahhs wrote: post #273
croes wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Tesla owns VW? Telsa is overvalued and still doesn't make profit from car manufacturing. And it's USPs get fewer and fewer and especially full driving autonomous won't happen in the near future despite Musk's claims

You've bought the CNBC fud. Tesla made 4x the profit from cars than bitcoin or credits. Valuation is based on the future, not on the past. Exponential growth matters - just look at the last ten years, then extrapolate a few years more. If you did not predict 500k Tesla cars delivered in 2020, back in 2015, then you can not credibily comment on current valuation ( which is based on the future).

Tesla made 438 millions profit, 100 million are from bitcoin. If we ignore the profit from carbon credits (they made more from credits than from bitcoin) they made 4x100 millions profit from cars by your math. So combined they made more profit than they did. What comes next? Are they building the perpetual motion machine?

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#302

Post by baybal2 »

ChuckMcM wrote: post #157

Geopolitically this makes a lot of sense. Will be interesting to see how China reacts as it moves forward. If Intel is serious this time about letting third parties into their fabs then it could be quite the reversal of fortune. However, as I've said in the past Intel is most likely to do this with "alternate" process streams, in order to not expose their full capabilities to competitors. High hopes but low expectati…

> Geopolitically this makes a lot of sense.

Geopolitically it makes no sense.

What exactly do they expect any much changing from thus move other than Samsung getting even more desperate, and Korea possibly moving closer to China if the next Korean president will be a gullible populist (which is now a close probability.)

A lion share of high tech manufacturing happens in Taiwan-SK-Japan triangle, all within walking distance from China, and reachable by their nuclear weapons.

The whole of semiconductor industry is %60-%70 Taiwanese play with leading fab suppliers manufacturers often being single vendor, and in Taiwan.

If something happens to Taiwan, the entire semi supply chain globally stops, as happens every time after a major earthquake there.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#303

Post by andy_ppp »

mook wrote: post #271
ChuckMcM wrote: post #157

Geopolitically this makes a lot of sense. Will be interesting to see how China reacts as it moves forward. If Intel is serious this time about letting third parties into their fabs then it could be quite the reversal of fortune. However, as I've said in the past Intel is most likely to do this with "alternate" process streams, in order to not expose their full capabilities to competitors. High hopes but low expectati…

As a first pass, wouldn't this be good for China? TSMC was strategic for Taiwan, as a military takeover of Taiwan (where the plants will likely be damaged or scuttled) would be economically damaging for the US. That might be a bit different if the US has enough high-the fabs internally. I'd love to hear better analysis; I'm not confident of my understanding here.

China will do everything it can to keep the factories in a war, it’s likely the US would offer a lot of Taiwanese US visas especially those in tech, it’s likely the Taiwanese people will have a general strike and the whole place will be very unpleasant to live in after probably many hundreds of thousands of Chinese dead due to choke points getting onto the island. It’s likely after an invasion most production for the West will have to move to other cheaper countries. I can’t see how we can do business with a country that invaded a democratic country.

I really don’t get why China care so much or the CCP see their hold over China as so weak they don’t want to be a part of the world system. But it’s their loss and America will have a clear competitor to focus minds and have a Cold War with again.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#304

Post by ChuckNorris89 »

fxtentacle wrote: post #258
_the_inflator wrote: post #228

"European chip and auto companies, for their part, are mostly lined up against the idea. They would prefer subsidies for the older-generation chips that are heavily used by car manufacturers and are in short supply. Many of TSMC's most lucrative customers, such as Apple, are U.S.-based, while its European customer base is made up of mostly of automakers buying less-advanced chips." Oh boy... This is exactly why EU wi…

Other people have called this the greatest strength of Nintendo: build stuff with slightly older parts that are cheap and proven to work, so that you don't have to sell at a loss That aside, I'm in the process of designing an USB gadget and I find process shrinks quite pesky. Of course it'll reduce production costs for the manufacturer of the IC but it also reduces flanking times which causes more electromagnetic int…

Except Nintendo's strength and main selling ponit was never their hardware, but their vast entertainment IP roster(Super Mario, etc.) which they go to great lengths to enforce its protection. So it's not a good comparison to products who's performance is dependent on being on the latest tech nodes.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#305

Post by andy_ppp »

supergirl wrote: post #294
vineyardmike wrote: post #134

Earlier quoted context omitted.

TSMC is also likely saving their best tech for where they can control it the best and shop it around the best. The US has lots of high tech customers (Apple, Qualcomm, AMD even Intel) who are willing to pay top price for supply. Add in the US and their heavy national security needs/desire/politics and of course the energy and money is obvious for good fabs in the US. England has some semiconductor industry and so doe…

is TSMC doing anything innovative themselves? I thought they just purchase the machines or at least specs from ASML, a Dutch company. So the "best tech" is designed in EU anyway.

If it was that simple loads of companies would be smashing out 5nm chips...

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#306

Post by emmelaich »

baybal2 wrote: post #302
ChuckMcM wrote: post #157

Geopolitically this makes a lot of sense. Will be interesting to see how China reacts as it moves forward. If Intel is serious this time about letting third parties into their fabs then it could be quite the reversal of fortune. However, as I've said in the past Intel is most likely to do this with "alternate" process streams, in order to not expose their full capabilities to competitors. High hopes but low expectati…

> Geopolitically this makes a lot of sense. Geopolitically it makes no sense. What exactly do they expect any much changing from thus move other than Samsung getting even more desperate, and Korea possibly moving closer to China if the next Korean president will be a gullible populist (which is now a close probability.) A lion share of high tech manufacturing happens in Taiwan-SK-Japan triangle, all within walking di…

> If something happens to Taiwan, the entire semi supply chain globally stops

Sounds like you're arguing in favour?

Also, Koreans will prefer ties with Japan, Taiwan, USA, over China. I'm pretty sure.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#307

Post by ZWoz »

TMWNN wrote: post #227
Griffinsauce wrote: post #186

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If I remember correctly, ones Rupert Murdoch famously said that it’s impossible to find a phone number to call. Do the HN rules of assuming good faith apply to him as well? /s https://europa.eu/european-union/contact/call-us_en Please don't signal boost easily falsifiable claims like this. The function of it is to sow division and prevent proper nuanced discussion.

>Please don't signal boost easily falsifiable claims like this. The function of it is to sow division and prevent proper nuanced discussion. The phone numbers on that page is a hotline for general questions. It is absolutely not the same thing as the point mrtksn's Murdoch quote mentioned. A media magnate like Murdoch has the phone number to the White House central switchboard and can get the President on the phone.…

That sounds like you paint corporate control over politicians in positive light. I am glad that American mogul don't have direct line (preferential treatment) to EU top level officials.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#308

Post by baybal2 »

emmelaich wrote: post #306
baybal2 wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Geopolitically this makes a lot of sense. Geopolitically it makes no sense. What exactly do they expect any much changing from thus move other than Samsung getting even more desperate, and Korea possibly moving closer to China if the next Korean president will be a gullible populist (which is now a close probability.) A lion share of high tech manufacturing happens in Taiwan-SK-Japan triangle, all within walking di…

> If something happens to Taiwan, the entire semi supply chain globally stops Sounds like you're arguing in favour? Also, Koreans will prefer ties with Japan, Taiwan, USA, over China. I'm pretty sure.

I'm arguing that the public discourse is guided by misguided, technically illiterate opinion.

A single, or two, to three, to six fabs will change very little to the fact the industry is permanently anchored in Asia, and Taiwan.

Even a $50B cheque to the leading manufacturer will not amount to "buying the industry," but just handing a monopoly to one company.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#309

Post by Dah00n »

andy_ppp wrote: post #303
mook wrote: post #271

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As a first pass, wouldn't this be good for China? TSMC was strategic for Taiwan, as a military takeover of Taiwan (where the plants will likely be damaged or scuttled) would be economically damaging for the US. That might be a bit different if the US has enough high-the fabs internally. I'd love to hear better analysis; I'm not confident of my understanding here.

China will do everything it can to keep the factories in a war, it’s likely the US would offer a lot of Taiwanese US visas especially those in tech, it’s likely the Taiwanese people will have a general strike and the whole place will be very unpleasant to live in after probably many hundreds of thousands of Chinese dead due to choke points getting onto the island. It’s likely after an invasion most production for the…

>I can’t see how we can do business with a country that invaded a democratic country.

Where do we draw the line? Because there is one country in the western world that would be banned from trade if destroying democracies are not allowed. It is also the only country in the world that has toppled governments so many times it has its own Wikipedia article. So unless you define it as only "full-scale invasion" the US would have to be put outside.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#310

Post by baybal2 »

neltnerb wrote: post #281
baybal2 wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You cannot backup power a whole modern fab, unless you build a small power station just for it. UPSes there are just to keep cleanroom clean, and most critical processes which can't be gracefully shut down.

Although at these scales, a CCP at 400MW output is "only" ~$300M, so building that small power station might not be that big a deal compared with the cost of turning off?

I believe things are moving progressively in this direction.
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