Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
1–10 of 40 posts
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#2By 2026, apparently:
"But because we’re doubling the rate of progress every decade, we’ll see a century of progress–at today’s rate–in only 25 calendar years."
"In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by around 2020. By 2030, it will take a village of human brains (around a thousand) to match $1000 of computing."
So, have super computers achieved one human brain's worth of computing? I believe we're only in the petaflop range, which is a factor of 10^10 behind his prediction.
At any rate, I believe AI is logically impossible.
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#3i would not say it is impossible. predicting the futuere is so difficult and things are changing so fast. i agree with the author "kurzweil" that we will first enter a hybrid phase between machines and humans. later, machines will surpass humans. the progress of tech evolution is getting faster and faster and i can't see right now what should stop this. i'm not a scientist, but what i can read in the article looks very logic and therefore i agree with kurzweil.
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#4I have to disagree with Kurzweil here. I remember in one of the Kinect videos, the researcher who worked on the mic array explained that the billion neurons allowed such a level of processing that we could extract info from the noise easily.
The amount of computational resources needed to combat information overload on one sense organ is immense. To be able to pull that off with 5 organs, regulate body function, make inferences with ease, apply vast swaths of info to fields completely unrelated to the underlying information is just immense. Although, I can see a budding brain peripherals market in about 2050+. It is just that we need a lot more than computational resources to emulate the brain.
One interesting quote I took away from a cognition class (the only one I considered legit in our Psych dept.) was that we tend to compare our brain to the most advanced tech of the moment. My gut feeling says that the current computational models we use are not adequate representations of the human mind and potentially a socratic approach also might fall short.
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#5Summary of every post from KurzweilAI.net since it's launch years ago:
"Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence and a singularity will happen. Why? Technology gets more advanced."
Broken record...
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#6By 2026, apparently: "But because we’re doubling the rate of progress every decade, we’ll see a century of progress–at today’s rate–in only 25 calendar years." "In line with my earlier predictions, supercomputers will achieve one human brain capacity by 2010, and personal computers will do so by around 2020. By 2030, it will take a village of human brains (around a thousand) to match $1000 of computing." So, have sup…
What? What about it is "logically impossible"? I really doubt you have a proof that it is impossible, so why the appeal to "logic"?
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#7Definitely true for sufficiently weak definitions of "human intelligence". E.g. already true for "chess-playing" ability.
Incientally, "a few decades" means "just after we get fusion power" right?
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#8No, no it won't. This is the same statement that has been made consistently since the invention of computers. But the fact is, that despite our increases in computational power, and our high degree of success with specific tasks, we still don't even know what general "intelligence" really means, beyond "what humans do."
Until we have a reasonable definition for intelligence and consciousness (which I would argue are related), we'll always be moving the goalposts, and machine intelligence will always be a "few decades" away.
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#9No, no it won't. This is the same statement that has been made consistently since the invention of computers. But the fact is, that despite our increases in computational power, and our high degree of success with specific tasks, we still don't even know what general "intelligence" really means, beyond "what humans do." Until we have a reasonable definition for intelligence and consciousness (which I would argue are…
The following two statements are not incompossible:
1. At each time T, we believe that "machine intelligence", according to the definition in use at time T, is a few decades away;
2. At each time T, we're right.
In other words, the fact that in thirty years we'll still be talking about how we'll have machine intelligence one day, has nothing to do with the fact that by that point we'll already have machine intelligence as we currently conceive it.
Re: Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence, within a few decades.
#10Summary of every post from KurzweilAI.net since it's launch years ago: "Machine intelligence will surpass human intelligence and a singularity will happen. Why? Technology gets more advanced." Broken record...
Somebody needs to introduce Kurzweil to the concept of the asymptote.