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TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

reuters.com

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Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#211

Post by gadf »

SCAQTony wrote: post #48

The USA is also willing to defend Taiwan and currently the US has carrier groups in the south China sea. This suggests that the idea of building chips in the US may be a diplomatic courtesy and arguably an incentive.

What if Taiwan and China are the same entity, with two faces? Then it would make sense to hype the threat, and hype how different they were and how "Western-valued" Taiwan was. But why do this? Control. "Good cop, bad cop". I can come at you from two angels, control what you see as a threat, and control who you see as a friend, but I control both those. Why else? Maybe China can get Western tech back-channeled through Taiwan. Defense contractors can't sell to China, but they can to Taiwan. A few TW based "China spy" show trials don't a summer make. Why else? Maybe China can push the US into a "Moon race" style resource depletion/distraction race using South China Sea / Taiwan as a bait and vanguard. Why else? Media control. Threat of war narrative trumps many others. Slightest provocation triggers explosion of media interest. China can deploy this narrative countermeasure any time it likes. Why else? Why did NI prolong the "troubles" for such a long time, and maintain the narrative of persistent threat? Kept the foreign money flowing. TW is uniquely position to capture both Western and Chinese investment. Could this situation be as "innocent" as the media narrative would have you believe about: "big bad China", "poor innocent Taiwaness", and "noble heroic America"? Or could there be more too it? Think about it, or not, invasion not gonna happen in the 2020s.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#212

Post by refurb »

whoknowswhat11 wrote: post #206
nwiswell wrote: post #153

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> In the United States, the level of professional dedication is no match to that in Taiwan, at least for engineers What does this even mean? That US engineers expect benefits and work-life balance?

It's a couple of things. 1) Students in Taiwan score highly on PISA and other ranking of math and science skills. Ie, 4th for Math (vs the USA at 38th or so). And engineering is extremely popular as a major. So you've got a strong supply of relatively competent folks. 2) A pretty strong tracking system - 9th grade testing for example means a lot more in Taiwan than in the US which has moved away from tracking efforts…

I’d be interested how important these are in the “real world”. I spent a few years working in Asia. I would agree that volume matters (reminds me of hard science PhDs from Russia and Eastern Europe). That said, I’ve heard from more than a few folks that the Western educated folks tend to be more flexible and independent. But I guess it depends on what you need? If it’s just entry level engineers who follow instructions then I could see Asia being a better source just due to shear numbers.

I have no idea how true it is, but I’ve heard that from a few folks.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#213

Post by baybal2 »

vkou wrote: post #165
MangoCoffee wrote: post #158

its always interesting to read the comments on HN regarding China/Taiwan situation. Chinese invasion (Taiwan) threat is always there. It didn't stop when Nixon visit China and it didn't stop when American abandoned Taiwan to have a business relationship with China for more than 40 years. the threat is so old now. there are some running jokes in Taiwan like "China threatening to invade Taiwan since my grandpa is alive…

I am generally on the 'wrong' side of these conversations on HN, but... > did South Korea stop everything whenever North Korea did a Nuke test? I believe the two threats are not remotely equivalent. In a world of MAD, nuclear weapons are only a credible defensive deterrent, because offensive use of them is suicide. The US would start a nuclear war, in response to a North Korean first-strike. Whereas with respect to C…

> The US would start a nuclear war, in response to a North Korean first-strike.

US will possibly do a limited retaliation, but not a full scale war.

Norko is effectively China's 24th province. US generals are not onblivious to that fact.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#215

Post by DaiPlusPlus »

TheBill wrote: post #214

Hundreds of comments and no one mentions that if the three gorges dam goes it's 30%+ of china gone. A literal single ton warhead ( ballistically delivered torpedo ) would accomplish this. More likely to be a nuke but...

If anyone were to actually do that, China would retaliate - no rational actor would do that. And I don't think any irrational actor (ISIS?) is interested in going after China right now though...

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#216

Post by idiotsecant »

xwolfi wrote: post #133
AlchemistCamp wrote: post #114

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The EU has also supplied both weapons and technology that are currently threatening Taiwan: https://www.businessinsider.com/european-companies-are-suppl... France alone was the #2 supplier from 2015-2019: https://euro-sd.com/2020/03/news/16688/sipri-biggest-arms-ex... You really can't blame Taiwan for not rushing to put its most cutting edge expertise in the EU.

[flagged]

in Capitalism's majesty it provides equal access to incredibly expensive military technology to both the world's 2nd largest economy and it's 36th largest economy economy!

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#217

Post by jhgb »

teruakohatu wrote: post #16
cromka wrote: post #15

I don't think EU cuts deals with specific companies. What would TMSC expect here? That EU gave them money straight up? I don't know how this would work, but maybe I am missing something. If anything, EU would create a generic fund to subsidize any such investment coming from any company interested, but at EU level, it would definitely take time. Or they can talk to individual countries about subsidies, just like they…

The USA (or states do), China does, even my little country of New Zealand does (our tax dollars fund Hollywood blockbusters). If the EU doesn't they are only going to miss out.

All of the entities you've named are nation states with a unified government, not loose confederations with limited power.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#218

Post by philwelch »

nwiswell wrote: post #153
rsj_hn wrote: post #126

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From the article, Taiwan's estimation of the U.S. talent base is rather low: '"TSMC chairman and founder Morris Chang warned last month of higher operating costs and a thin talent pool for the U.S. plans in a rare public speech attended by Wei and chairman Mark Liu. "In the United States, the level of professional dedication is no match to that in Taiwan, at least for engineers," Chang said. He warned that "short-ter…

> In the United States, the level of professional dedication is no match to that in Taiwan, at least for engineers What does this even mean? That US engineers expect benefits and work-life balance?

I suspect too many of the smartest and most motivated Americans are writing JavaScript and trying to get people to click on ads.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#219

Post by giardini »

kragen wrote: post #166
musingsole wrote: post #160

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You cripple your argument with your own. The US can't return to a 2500 year old structure; it's not old enough to have that history. Which is a strength. China has further to fall than the US. That old history is still history. The US would cobble together into something more reminiscent of something later into history by virtue of a shorter memory span...whether or not that is beneficial in this hypothetical future…

The People's Republic of China isn't 2500 years old either. Your metaphors about strength, falling, shoe repair, structures, and crippling have no predictive power, being only metaphors. It's true that people in the US don't know what happened there 2500 years ago, but people in China don't know much of what happened there 2500 years ago either (partly the fault of Qin Shi Huang), and in either place, there's no part…

kragen says "People won't suddenly forget how to use their shortwave radios, smelt iron, and make gunpowder just because it's radioactive outside. "

shortwave radios? With no electrical power, no batteries?

"smelt iron" with coal, maybe! Now you've got wrought iron, which is good for what, horseshoes? Hedge your bets and buy a couple of horses tomorrow. [Bad news: I can imagine your neighbors' queries: "Hey, Bing, what's with the sudden interest in horses, eh? You aren't worried about some crazy sort of apocalypse, are ya? Whaddaya gonna do - ride off into the sunset or sumthin'?" Good news: you can eat a horse!]

"Make gunpowder" - for what, other than to blow up any remaining local CCP leaders. But it would be easier and more satisfying to kill them by hand.

"surveillance satellites"? where do you download data? Why? Where are the encryption codes? Most CCP command structures would be smoked.

"Semi-articulated trucks with tank escorts" is a laugh - with no diesel/gas, no repair facilities and no roads.

"to battlefields"? What battlefields? Oh, of course, so they can fight the Chinese living in the next valley. But before they do that, how about getting something to eat? Maybe you could roll up to the local Kentucky Fried Chicken in your 'semi-articulated truck'!8-))

"The whole scenario is just nonsense." - finally you got one right! What you envision _is_ nonsense.

The point of my post was that for a post-apocalyptic China, geography is destiny. The country would be fragmented socially and politically out of necessity. The most likely political structure to result is one that supports a more primitive infrastructure. China would fall into a number of separate independent regions. The CCP might survive somewhere but more likely would be snuffed out by the people, who would not appreciate the war the CCP had brought upon them.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#220

Post by lumost »

MangoCoffee wrote: post #158

its always interesting to read the comments on HN regarding China/Taiwan situation. Chinese invasion (Taiwan) threat is always there. It didn't stop when Nixon visit China and it didn't stop when American abandoned Taiwan to have a business relationship with China for more than 40 years. the threat is so old now. there are some running jokes in Taiwan like "China threatening to invade Taiwan since my grandpa is alive…

The cause for recent concern is that China is close to credibly "winning" the next Taiwan straight crises in almost all scenarios. Unlike Berlin in the cold war, there isn't a convincing trigger for MAD and it may become impractical for the US Navy to maintain the status quo.
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