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TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

reuters.com

131–140 of 511 posts

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#131
post #65

Is automotive industry all that EU cares about? What about IoT/robotics? The fact that TSMC want to build only their older fab here is really disappointing to me.

EU is loosely coupled peace union with a lot of sovereignty left to the individual states. If I remember correctly, ones Rupert Murdoch famously said that it’s impossible to find a phone number to call.

So, It’s probably not up to the EU to care about automotive, that must be Germany. France and Spain likely cares about other things and no one cares about cutting edge chips. EU can push from the top by easing state aid rules, I guess, however it must be a particular country to strike a deal.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#133
post #65

Is automotive industry all that EU cares about? What about IoT/robotics? The fact that TSMC want to build only their older fab here is really disappointing to me.

The EU has also supplied both weapons and technology that are currently threatening Taiwan: https://www.businessinsider.com/european-companies-are-suppl... France alone was the #2 supplier from 2015-2019: https://euro-sd.com/2020/03/news/16688/sipri-biggest-arms-ex... You really can't blame Taiwan for not rushing to put its most cutting edge expertise in the EU.

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Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#134
post #65

Is automotive industry all that EU cares about? What about IoT/robotics? The fact that TSMC want to build only their older fab here is really disappointing to me.

TSMC is also likely saving their best tech for where they can control it the best and shop it around the best. The US has lots of high tech customers (Apple, Qualcomm, AMD even Intel) who are willing to pay top price for supply. Add in the US and their heavy national security needs/desire/politics and of course the energy and money is obvious for good fabs in the US.

England has some semiconductor industry and so does Germany, but less of it is top-spec tech from cash rich companies. Obviously “Europe” still cares about national security but is the money and politics comparable to the US military industrial complex?

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#135
post #91

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The TSMC chip bottleneck makes it a red line for the US and China knows that. They're patient, no need to do it in a time period when it guarantees maximum blowback.

On the other hand, the US has been aggressively escalating the TSMC conflict with targeted attacks on the PRC's nuclear and supercomputing capabilities: https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2021/04/us-adds-chinese-... and semiconductor fabrication has been a key technology for several five-year plans. So the PRC's patience may run out sooner than you think.

Way better ROI to invest in more capabilities than engage in a zero-sum conflict which will inevitably trash the fabs in Taiwan anyways.

Those trade restrictions just galvanize the Chinese to develop the capabilities themselves. And their system doesn't create a need for a big splashy foreign conflict to sell to the hogs for votes. They're more capable of making the smart play than we are.

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#136
post #65

Is automotive industry all that EU cares about? What about IoT/robotics? The fact that TSMC want to build only their older fab here is really disappointing to me.

Older lithography is what European automakers need, and the same can be said for robotics. The only reason for EU to demand fabrication of leading edge chips in Europe is hubris. How many laptops and mobile phones, in percent terms relative to those respective markets, are assembled in Europe?

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#137
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arizona has a very long semiconductor industry history: https://www.chipsetc.com/semiconductors-in-arizona.html "The state of Arizona has been home to many semiconductor & electronics manufacturing Companies since the 1950's, including the SouthWest's Pioneer Semiconductor Company - Motorola. Motorola's research and development lab in Phoenix introduced the world's first commercial high-power germanium-based transist…

So is it also full of toxic superfund sites like Silicon Valley?

Arizona has nine superfund sites including one at a former Motorola semiconductor facility.

https://www.phoenixnewtimes.com/news/motorola-the-story-so-f...

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#138
post #54

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arizona has a very long semiconductor industry history: https://www.chipsetc.com/semiconductors-in-arizona.html "The state of Arizona has been home to many semiconductor & electronics manufacturing Companies since the 1950's, including the SouthWest's Pioneer Semiconductor Company - Motorola. Motorola's research and development lab in Phoenix introduced the world's first commercial high-power germanium-based transist…

So is it also full of toxic superfund sites like Silicon Valley?

Except most of it is useless. Silicon Valley at least is good for growing

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#139

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would argue that by the time China comes to take Taiwan (when, not if), the US will be in a position where it is unwilling/able to expend the lives and funds required to provide a prolonged defense of a piece of land firmly in China's front yard. Personally, I think we're at the point where the US would consider the costs of Taiwan's defense well beyond any potential benefits. It's too economically integrated with…

The USA must defend Taiwan even at the risk of nuclear war. The dollars position in the world allows the USA to run its current accounting. Allowing China to take Taiwan destroys the economy and the position of the USA in the world. That being said I feel that Taiwan is a vibrant democracy that is worth defending, and yes I did my time as a solider and understand the horrors of it.

> The USA must defend Taiwan even at the risk of nuclear war.

I don't think this is a popular or maintstream position, nor does the rest of your argument support it.

>The dollars position in the world allows the USA to run its current accounting.

I am not sure what this means. Every nation has a current account. Accounting is just how we track what that account is. Nothing allows accounting to happen, we just do it.

The U.S. is uniquely generous (or from an alternate point of view, uniquely foolish) in allowing the rest of the world to purchase unlimited dollar denominated assets. This makes the U.S. the safe haven for everyone that needs to park export earnings, and thus incentivizes the rest of the world to run huge surplus against the U.S. This is what is meant by "the dollar system". If tomorrow, the European Union would allow unlimited foreign purchases of Euro assets, and provided what is believed to be rule of law and respect for foreign investor rights, then the rest of the world would gladly diversify away from the dollar and the dollar system would end. That was the original vision of the Euro, but the moment there is any crisis, the EMU reveals that it doesn't have the same level of openness for global investment as the U.S., and that dream is proved illusory. So the global dollar system continues, and is in no way dependent on Taiwan or any other exporter. You get to be a reserve currency by importing the most, not by exporting the most.

> Allowing China to take Taiwan destroys the economy and the position of the USA in the world.

It does not affect the economy of the U.S. in either direction, except that the resulting chaos would be bad for markets. Having one foreign export power taken over by another is a null op when determining where can the rest of the world park their money. Of course we may block China from doing it, and that could escalate into a war, which would be disastrous for two nuclear powers, but there are easier ways to punish China -- e.g. seize all their foreign reserve holdings (which are held in custodial accounts in various foreign central banks), block all trade, stop the shipment of any oil. For a nation dependent on exports and dependent on foreign nations allowing China to hold large accounts in their financial system, China is tightly integrated into the global system and uniquely dependent on the good graces of that system. They would have been better off taking physical delivery of silver as in the past.

Not a single bullet needs to be fired to cripple China and destroy its economy. It would also seriously damage the global economy and spread hurt around the world, but this type of economic warfare is better than nuclear war. Whether Taiwan is worth it is a completely different question. But in such a battle, the dollar becomes even more important, not less, as it would be the global safe haven currency (for everyone except China).

Re: TSMC looks to double down on U.S. chip factories as talks in Europe falter

#140

You guys ever wonder why they don't choose California? These factories have huge environmental impacts that California is not okay with. These factories produce massive amounts of waste that cannot be recycled. This is also very likely to be the same exact reason as to why these talks didn't go so well in Europe. Arizona like Texas is more business friendly at the expense of not looking out for the well being of peop…

> Ironically, right now by being more business friendly more people want to move to places like Arizona or Texas for jobs. This isn’t “ironically”, this is literally the primary argument in favor of this policy angle.

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