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Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

reuters.com

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Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#251

Post by flatiron »

thamer wrote: post #114
savant_penguin wrote: post #74

"The iPhone maker said last month it will lose $3 billion to $4 billion in sales in the current quarter ending in June because of the chip shortage," The IPhone maker has $3 to $4 billion in incentives to fund its own factory

I was curious about the cost and looked it up, the estimates I found were in the $5-15 billion range. Not that it's out of reach or anything, but it's quite a bit more than $3-4B. For example, this TSMC fab planned in Arizona is estimated to cost $12 billion: https://www.forbes.com/sites/willyshih/2020/05/15/tsmcs-anno...

But you don’t build factories to fund quarterly profits. It should be normal risk mitigation if you are dealing at that scale to have a plan B. Even if it’s your own plant.

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#252

Post by simonblack »

The problem with outsourcing semiconductor munufacture (as well as other things)and then trying to re-introduce local manufacture again means that the US is in roughly the same place as China is. Both the US and China are starting from scratch in building up new indigenous semiconductor fabs.

The US doesn't have the spare trillions to throw at the problem, whereas China does. Forcing China to build their own fabs by banning sales of US chips has been the US shooting itself in the foot.

The new US semiconductor manufacturers will be out-competed and and outsold by the new Chinese semiconductor manufacturers.

US semiconductor manufacturing will go the same way as US paper production, US tools production, US textile production, US contsruction-materials production, US auto production, US shipbuilding production, ....., (You get the idea).

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#253

Post by nickff »

hashmymustache wrote: post #235
Meandering wrote: post #209

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is what I was thinking... These corporations are the ones whom benefited from exporting the production infrastructure at the expense of the labor market. Now, they want the labor market to fund the redevelopment of the infrastructure for their benefit. I'm confused as to why the US government needs to be involved capital investment when these companies are boasting historic profit margins.

I emotionally agree as you are correct and it is infuriating, but on the other hand it is the responsibility of the federal government to protect (subsidize, trade policy), and regulate domestic production of vital goods. Companies exported manufacturing because the government, elected by its citizens, did nothing to stop them. On some level it is very much the tax payer responsible for recalibrating the imbalance ev…

>"Companies exported manufacturing because the government, elected by its citizens, did nothing to stop them."

Another way to look at this is to say that other countries are now more appealing places to manufacture certain goods than the USA is. Everything is relative, and other countries have agency too.

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#255

Post by simonblack »

threeseed wrote: post #223
WillPostForFood wrote: post #196

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The risk isn’t war between China and the US, but China and Taiwan, which China has 100% chance of winning. That then makes the the US extremely dependent on China for semiconductor supply.

The idea that China has a 100% chance of winning is laughable and plain wrong. There are so many dynamics involved e.g. Japan needing to defend the Senkaku Islands, India, UK and EU member states being involved and the fact that you an increasingly united front within APAC. Also China's military is a lot of smoke and mirrors. They simply can't match the F-22 and F-35 in the air or the Ford class aircraft carriers in…

Don't make the same mistake of under-estimating China in 2021, that the US made of underestimating Japan in 1941.

To see the mind-set of the US/Europeans in the 1940s, take the time to watch the miniseries "The Singapore Grip". The British in particular were very dismissive of the Japanese. They sent a whole two(!) battleships off to destroy the Japanese invasion fleet. The Japanese polished them off in about an hour and a half. [I see that moment as the point when the whole British Empire died. But it took the British another 15 years to recognise that death.]

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#256

Post by dev_tty01 »

mjevans wrote: post #239
fuzzer37 wrote: post #125

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What is a giga-buck?

Engineering notation, 10^12. Since 'billion' is an overloaded term with different values depending on historic and national context.

Typo. Giga is 10^9. Tera is 10^12.

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#257

Post by RhodoGSA »

threeseed wrote: post #231
WillPostForFood wrote: post #227

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The US hasn't even committed to defending Taiwan. I doubt the US would militarily intervene. The risk of escalation is too high. If China is committed to taking it, they will get it. The response would be economic, and I'm not confident enough of the world cares, or isn't already beholden to China for it to matter. >Ford class aircraft carriers Isn't there only one Ford class carrier? And it is still not fully ready,…

At this point there is very little economic sanctions US could impose on China that Trump didn't already either try or talk about. And anything with teeth will never work whilst US companies build everything in China. So for me a short military dispute is more likely. No one is expecting war this year. There will be 3 Ford Class carriers by 2030 and 5 by 2040. As well as the Nimitz class which are still better than w…

China has too much USD denominated debt to last against a protracted trade war.

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#258

Post by R0b0t1 »

jvanderbot wrote: post #63

Well, TSMC had 2020 revenue in the 30 giga-$ range. Even a few 3% sales tax on that revenue would pay for a 5 giga-$ investment in 5 years. (or a few F-35's / year) That's grossly optimistic numbers, given US labor costs, startup costs, etc, but it's also potentially a reasonable investment that would be sustained by domestic and international purchases (one would hope).

Sales tax gets passed on to consumer and is regressive, pretty bad choice.

Re: Tech giants join call for funding U.S. chip production

#259

Post by SkyMarshal »

threeseed wrote: post #225
smithza wrote: post #204

Earlier quoted context omitted.

From some commentaries I read, China has a near 100% chance of winning in war with Taiwan even if US and allies join. This is mostly to do with mainland China's relative proximity to Taiwan and the few relative number of air bases US has on Japan and how far away Hawaii is.

You do know that there is the concept of carrier strike groups which involve you putting a bunch of planes on an aircraft carrier and sailing it to the region. Just like UK's HMS Queen Elizabeth is doing as we speak. Also there are US air bases in Phillipines, Singapore, South Korea, Australia, Guam etc. This is going to be a regional conflict not just between US and China. Again. Anyone who says there is a 100% chan…

Carriers are dead, thanks to hypersonic missiles. As carriers obsoleted battleships in WWII, hypersonics have obsoleted carriers in the 21st century.
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