141–150 of 195 posts
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Oil is still under $70 a barrel though. It's gone up since being at some historical very low prices but compared to the times it's been north of $100, especially if you factor for 2021 dollars.
These are consumer prices though. Consumers don't buy barrels of crude oil. Meanwhile in the Bay Area, gas is $4.20/gal.
It does make for a somber website visit, when one frequents the Chapwood Index and starts contemplating about all of it including the consequences for the poorest of the poor, who are trapped: https://www.reddit.com/r/PersonalFinanceCanada/comments/kr1k... (the original site seems to be down at the moment)
This is complete and utter non-sense and engaging some simple math skills shows why:
> But if we take away the outlier 2020 data points, the average real annual GDP growth from 2010-2019 was 2.3%. The inflation rate in that time averaged roughly 1.8% per year.
> If you’re one of the conspiracy people who believe inflation has actually been running at 5-6% per year, that would assume the economy has been contracting by 1-3% per year over the past 10 years.
> And if you’re a full tinfoil hat person who assumes inflation is actually 10-12% per year[fn2], that’s like saying we’ve been in a full-blown depression and the economy has lost 80% of its value.
> This is absurd and patently false but that’s the claim you’re making if you really think inflation is this high.
* https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2021/01/inflation-truthers/
[fn2] is a link to the Chapwood Index.
If inflation is >10% as Chapwood claims, but growth was only 2-3%, then that would mean there was >7% deflation in real terms. If we had really deflation that big the economy would be collapsing à la the Great Depression.
To repeat the key line:
> And if you’re a full tinfoil hat person who assumes inflation is actually 10-12% per year, that’s like saying we’ve been in a full-blown depression and the economy has lost 80% of its value.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Somehow everyone seems has this experience, rents have continued to climb at a high rate for the last decade, and they manage to downplay this in statistics.
In 2011, my rent was $1,420 a month. In 2021 my rent is $1,610 a month. According to the published inflation numbers my rent has gone down because it should be $1,672 if accounting for inflation. I don't live in California-- maybe things are different there-- but I don't buy the conspiracy theories about inflation numbers.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Aren’t “quality adjustments” by definition “hedonic adjustments”? How are these not hedonic adjustments? From the linked PDF: “BLS adjusts for structural and engineering quality changes such as: • Changes that affect the safety of occupants of the vehicle as mandated by legislated federal or state standards, and for purposes of IPP export items, applicable foreign market standards. Changes in safety features not requ…
The U.S. BLS differentiates between "hedonic" and other quality adjustments: https://www.bls.gov/cpi/quality-adjustment/questions-and-ans... 3. What items in the CPI are hedonically adjusted? The CPI uses hedonic quality adjustments in item categories that tend to experience a high degree of quality change either due to seasonal changes, as in apparel items, or because of innovative improvements and technological cha…
For all intents and purposes (i.e. going by the Wikipedia/intro to macroeconomics definition), any form of accounting for changing quality of goods in inflation indices is a “hedonic adjustment.” The BLS distinguishing between “hedonic adjustments” and “cost based adjustments” (the latter of which they do not define) seems to be something specific to them. And the PDF actually describing their methodology for adjusting car prices sure reads like textbook hedonic adjustment to me.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Somehow everyone seems has this experience, rents have continued to climb at a high rate for the last decade, and they manage to downplay this in statistics.
Or maybe everyone who has been having this experience is posting about it, because otherwise there's nothing to post about.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
>Anybody living in the world can tell you that consumer prices are up a lot, lot more than 2.6%. Look even at this very thread. Food prices are way up, lumber prices are way up, restaurant prices are way up, clothing costs are up. who knew that if you cherrypick from a list of items rather than using a broad basket, you can get arbitrarily higher/lower averages?
What's less expensive right now than it was a year ago?
Apparel, down -2.5%
Medical care commodities, down 2.4%
Motor vehicle insurance, down 2.5%
Airline fares, down 15.1%
Looking at the chart 2.6 percent seem quite average, so what’s the big news?
Well the prices I see around me are up a lot more than 2.6%. My latest sticker shock was at Lowe's.- https://imgur.com/a/9UoXNdk
Earlier quoted context omitted.
These are consumer prices though. Consumers don't buy barrels of crude oil. Meanwhile in the Bay Area, gas is $4.20/gal.
$4.20 would be nice. I just paid $4.87 this last weekend. :(
https://ycharts.com/indicators/boston_retail_price_of_gasoli....
Something is going on with California prices to push it to $4.20+ a gallon.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/san_francisco_retail_price_of...
In other news, the chocolate ration has been increased to 25 grams! Great success! /s Anybody living in the world can tell you that consumer prices are up a lot, lot more than 2.6%. Look even at this very thread. Food prices are way up, lumber prices are way up, restaurant prices are way up, clothing costs are up. Lots of goods literally just seem unbuyable at this point. Even in my city (nowhere near the southeast)…
Which specific parts of the numbers do you disagree with?
> clothing costs are up
In what world? Clothing costs are way down
> Food prices are way up
Some food prices are up, some are flat
> Lots of goods literally just seem unbuyable at this point
Like what?
> people are now lining up to buy gas
Not sure how this fits in with the rest of your rant
> lumber prices are way up
Yeah, not many households are spending a large chunk of their income on lumber
In other news, the chocolate ration has been increased to 25 grams! Great success! /s Anybody living in the world can tell you that consumer prices are up a lot, lot more than 2.6%. Look even at this very thread. Food prices are way up, lumber prices are way up, restaurant prices are way up, clothing costs are up. Lots of goods literally just seem unbuyable at this point. Even in my city (nowhere near the southeast)…