Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

cnbc.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

571–580 of 741 posts

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#571

Post by nikau »

devit wrote: post #332
robomartin wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I finished writing that comment (and I truly tried to be constructive as the author is young and inexperienced) I remembered another traumatic event of that era. Every order we received was like precious molecules of much needed oxygen. We got this order from one of our resellers (we had about fifty all over the world at the time) for about half a million dollars in product. This needs to be in the right context:…

Maybe the real lesson of the whole thread is to require customers to pay in advance with a non-reversible wire transfer, or at least via an escrow service contingent on delivering the goods. Or alternatively, somehow buy insurance against the customer failing to pay.

This is a thing offered by some banks, they will pay you straight away and take a cut for the convenience/risk.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#572

Post by fatbird »

Nasrudith wrote: post #528
fatbird wrote: post #263

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm starting to think historians will look back at our age and say "it was the MBAs who doomed them", much the same way that historians look at China's history and point to an excess of court eunechs as the reason this or that dynasty fell.

The eunechs being blamed was mostly a "polite" fiction as they had no descendants to offend, especially important if the same dynasty is in place. Badmouthing the current emperor's ancestors isn't good for your health.

A very fair point. It was my impression that the bloating of the court eunech population was considered a sign of imperial decline. If the empire wasn't expanding, advancement was mostly available through court intrigue, and drama was internal to the class that was jockeying for the emperor's favour.

In one sense, it's like the bloating of university administrations over the last couple decades in the U.S. as Pell grants unleashed a torrent of money at post-secondary education. The easiest way to soak up the excess was to bloat the bureaucracy trying to spend it.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#573

Post by fomine3 »

sokoloff wrote: post #228
ineedasername wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features That really depends on how old your car is. I generally buy instead of lease, and run the car until it starts having regular problems. As a result, my car is 12 years old, and any new one from the last few years is a significant upgrade in terms of features. I don't really want a monthly car payment again, but I'm almost looking forward to when my curren…

I tend to buy around 4-6 years old and run them for 10-12 years as well, which is limited by New England tinworm from the road salt we use rather than mechanical issues. Beyond airbags and ABS (both now ubiquitous), I don’t need the new feature faff. I just need something that will start everyday and that I can do the basic maintenance on. Fortunately, that’s still easily available and cheap in the 5-ish year-old “th…

You don't need it, pedestrian need it.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#574

Post by tomcam »

robomartin wrote: post #477
tomcam wrote: post #382

Earlier quoted context omitted.

First off, I really hope things go well for you and thank you for sharing your amazing story. I went through something similar in the software side of things. Second, that was a great post and I want to read your (I’m sure imaginary) blog. It was like a mini business education in modern manufacturing. Finally, I am amazed you’re able to write this with no bitterness. Hats off to you.

Oh, there's emotion there. No question about it. Not bitter. Angry, maybe. I made a really bad decision because I thought business was going to take off like crazy that year. We were running on all cylinders. It was going to be the culmination of a ten year effort. You don't go through something like that without the emotion staying with you. Yet, if you are going to move on you have to be able to put it in a drawer…

The emotion was very evident. That’s what made the post so powerful. You didn’t take it out on the parent poster.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#575

Post by dahfizz »

californical wrote: post #329
dahfizz wrote: post #188

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I definitely agree that car size inflation is a real problem. Cars are too big and getting bigger every year. That said, "good visibility" is not a replacement for safety tech. The sensors and cameras in a car are always going to be better at spotting danger than a human for things like blind spot monitoring and backup cameras. You sound a bit like the teachers that would drill mental math because "you won't always h…

I disagree about the safety tech. There are some situations where it’s great, but those features make the driver feel a false sense of security. Let the people feel like they’re entirely responsible so they’re more careful. For example, widening the roads in the suburbs used to seem like a great idea - more space, less accidents, right? But that’s untrue. Narrower streets with trees blocking visibility on the sides a…

All of your points are valid, and seem to be backed up by data, but only apply to urban driving.

In my opinion, the majority of the benefit from safety tech is in parking lots or the highway. You don't need blind spot monitoring or adaptive cruise control on a stop-and-go single lane city street. These features only make sense cruising at highway speed or pulling out of a parking spot.

It's possible that ""full"" self driving cars will make drivers feel less responsible in the cities. I think the transition to genuinely autonomous cars is going to be slow and painful regardless.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#576

Post by syshum »

sgtnoodle wrote: post #468
syshum wrote: post #210

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It is going to come sooner than that, people keep talking about inflation "coming soon" I think those people are blind because it is already here. Right now if we just get off with a little stagflation that would be a blessing, unfortunately I think it is going to far far worse. All those people depending on government checks are going to get hit hardest by the combination of inflation and the required austerity meas…

I treated myself to a medium frozen yogurt yesterday, no toppings, after carrying a sheet of peg board about a mile. It was $8 after tip. Maybe that's small tourist town price rather than inflation, but all the restaurants in the area definitely jacked prices up 50% over the last two years. I had to carry the peg board from the in-town hardware store because it wouldn't fit in my Mustang. A Ford Mustang has the same…

>>A Ford Mustang has the same sticker price as it did when I bought mine 10 years ago. So, if there's inflation, Mustangs have comparatively gotten cheaper.

I am not sure where you are getting your prices, in 2011 Base Mustang v6 coupe sticker was $22,145. Adjusted for CPI to official 2021 dollars that would be $26,076.

Base model 2021 Mustang v6 Coupe starts at 27,155, which is about 4% more than CPI indicated would be accounted for by official inflation

The difference is even more if we look at the GT500, which in 2011 was $53,645 which in official 2021 dollars would be $63,169 yet the 2021 GT500 has a sticker price starting at $72,900 a full 13% higher than inflation.

So please tell me where you are getting a 2021 Ford Mustang new for the EXACT same price as one would have paid in 2011??? Or you got massively ripped off 10 years ago... My current vehicle today has book value of about $1,500 MORE than when I bought it used 3 years ago (about a 1% increase in value), late model cars do not normally go UP in value as they age, but mine has in the last year or so....

as to the Peg Board, in my area right now a 4x8 sheet of Peg Board @ the local home depot is $25.. Definitely not $5 as you seem to believe, lumber prices (and peg board is in that) is up somewhere around 400% this year as there are MASSIVE shortages for building supplies of all types but especially wood based products

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#577

Post by kingsuper20 »

baybal2 wrote: post #536
exmadscientist wrote: post #507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

STM32 isn't the only Cortex-M microcontroller series in the world, you know. They're popular because they're pretty decent, low cost, have good dev boards and offer a wide variety of parts. However, their software sucks (okay, so do all of the other options...), their peripherals are not as good as some of the other options (in particular I'm thinking of peripheral clock trees when I say this, among other things), an…

> They're popular because they're pretty decent, low cost, have good dev boards and offer a wide variety of parts. Now find a single person who can program bare hardware on a short notice on above Arduino level. The current chip shortage has claimed 6 of our firmware devs, all hired by companies ready to spend just any money for anybody "who can replace that ____ing STM|NXP|Renesas thing" People downstream in the ind…

>Now find a single person who can program bare hardware on a short notice on above Arduino level.

Wait, there's real money in that?

Maybe I shouldn't waste my time just doing yard work.

Sidenote: I just asked my wife about parts shortages at her workplace. Evidently you guys are right. I should get out more.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#578

Post by SilverRed »

betamaxthetape wrote: post #252
cfn wrote: post #76

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone who ever tried to fix a broken washing machine mechanical timer/programmer agrees with you. I did try and failed miserably, those things were a nightmare to fix and broke quite easily.

I'd agree that mechanical mechanisms may break more easily than microprocessor equivalents, but I'm not sure about the argument that they are more difficult to repair. With microprocessor-driven systems, the solutions seems to be to replace the entire PCB, which is often completely custom to the manufacturer or even the specific model of machine. Trying to source a reasonably priced replacement is often difficult, an…

Right to repair should come in to fix this. My off the top of the head thoughts would be

* For a device like washing machine, parts should be supplied for a time of about 10 years.

* Every part should be available to purchase either on its own or as part of a replacement kit like a PCB.

* The sum of the cost of all replacement parts shouldn't be above x% of the initial item price.

* If an OEM physically can not get you a replacement part (Chip discontinued, etc) and your product breaks, the OEM pays you for the remaining expected lifetime. (If it was 5 years old they pay you 50% of the initial cost)

So in theory you should be able to build an entirely new product from parts and it would only cost you x% more than a pre built one which stops OEMs setting insane prices on replacements. The end result would likely be that OEMs would have to slim down on their product variations and sell the same designs for longer rather than releasing a new model of printer every year since this would make it much easier to stock parts. Some companies already do this, I have noticed Brevile has sold the same kettle and coffee machine models for almost 10 years now.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#579

Post by dahfizz »

leetrout wrote: post #261
tomrod wrote: post #248

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Cars are too big and getting bigger every year. /me waves from my tiny Corolla, slightly larger than my 2002 Prius, which a Camry has shrunk in size to meet relative to the 2009 model.

Yep. I noticed that as well when I bought my 2018 Corolla. The size comparison to a 2003ish Camry is very similar. 2003 Camry: 189″ L x 71″ W x 58″ H 2018 Corolla: 183″ L x 70″ W x 57″ H

Doesn't this prove the point that cars are growing? The modern "compact" corolla is the same size as the "midsized" from 15-20 years ago.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#580

Post by AlotOfReading »

baybal2 wrote: post #517
pbourke wrote: post #384

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I wonder if you could run the firmware in emulation on a more recent CPU.

I don't think one can even fund assembler docs for a chip so old, rare, and obscure as first SH-1,2,3 families.

This is a weird comment. One of the key features of the SuperH ISA is that it's more or less backwards compatible. I worked on them in the 00s/10s, but I can't imagine they had an entirely different ISA in the 90s. I also know that commercial SH3 emulators exist because I've used them. Heck, Renesas used to ship one with the toolchain.
Post reply on HN