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The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

lynalden.com

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Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are entering a Post Scarcity Economy. A lot of fiction books write about how this plays out. Regardless of what happens a lot of economic theory becomes less relevant. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-scarcity_economy#:~:text=... .

As long as people want things they don't have, there will always be scarcity. I'll believe the Post Scarcity Economy only when I see it.

From the second sentence of the article

>Post-scarcity does not mean that scarcity has been eliminated for all goods and services, but that all people can easily have their basic survival needs met along with some significant proportion of their desires for goods and services

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#122

This chart in the expense share of a typical income illustrates a number of issues well, but healthcare stands out like crazy: https://mobile.twitter.com/_cingraham/status/123195012984367... College, transportation and housing are all pretty high overall, but the healthcare share is just stunning. If we were looking at dramatically better outcomes or services, fine. Unfortunately, doctors get to see patients for less…

The problem is not that the share of things like college, housing, and healthcare is high. It's that they have risen much faster than inflation and much faster than median income over the past 40 years. Notice the white space in the chart below "median male income" in 1985 is all gone by the time you get to the right hand side of the chart.

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#123

Earlier quoted context omitted.

We are entering a Post Scarcity Economy. A lot of fiction books write about how this plays out. Regardless of what happens a lot of economic theory becomes less relevant. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-scarcity_economy#:~:text=... .

It’s just the opposite. The essential goods needed for survival: shelter is becoming more and more Scarce. 34% of millennials can’t even afford their own shelter anymore and are forced to live with parents. Those who can live by themselves are paying over 40% of their income on shelter. There’s been a pretty dramatic drop in living standards here in the US over the last several decades The fact that we can now afford…

Housing prices are not driven by scarcity, they are driven by financialization of our economy.

There are multiple cities in England where population has decreased but house prices increased. During lockdown 700k people left London, but house prices kept going up.

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#124
post #16

So awesome to see Lyn Alden at the top of Hacker News. She is an absolute genius! If you aren't familiar with her work and thinking I think a good introduction interview is: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=f_JmGLMjIOk&t=35s Fun fact: She is an electrical / industrial engineer by trade, not an economist.

Some other threads from that site:

An Economic Analysis of Ethereum - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25811356 - Jan 2021 (111 comments)

The Fraying of the US Global Currency Reserve System - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25558573 - Dec 2020 (17 comments)

The fraying of the U.S. global currency reserve system - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=25407583 - Dec 2020 (344 comments)

Banks, QE, and Money-Printing - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=24978567 - Nov 2020 (235 comments)

Why This Is Unlike the Great Depression - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22890151 - April 2020 (2 comments)

How to Win a Currency War - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22837518 - April 2020 (60 comments)

The Global Dollar Short Squeeze - https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=22828991 - April 2020 (211 comments)

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#125
Seems like a solid, albeit somewhat dry explanation of inflation. I love concrete examples of how inflation impacts people’s lives, and there are a few that really helped clarify my understanding of inflation that I like to point others to now.

1) https://www.npr.org/sections/money/2015/12/02/458222801/epis.... A great Planet Money episode about how Brazil combatted hyperinflation by just replacing their currency.

2. https://slate.com/business/1998/08/baby-sitting-the-economy..... A Paul Krugman Slate article about a 1978 journal article that uses the example of a babysitting coop to illustrate the way that the monetary supply can have ramifications on the real economy.

3. And the Money Kept Rolling In (and Out) https://www.amazon.com/dp/1586483811/ref=cm_sw_r_cp_api_glt_.... A much longer read, but this is book about the economic crisis in Argentina is one of my favorite economics books, and also teaches you a lot about the international monetary system as well.

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#126

I've wondered what the effect our modern digital economy has had on consumer price inflation. Normally, an increase in money supply would cause consumer goods to increase in price, since more people are able to buy them and there is a limit on how much of any particular physical good is available. This isn't the case, however, for digital goods. If there are suddenly 100 million new people who want to buy a Netflix s…

We are entering a Post Scarcity Economy. A lot of fiction books write about how this plays out. Regardless of what happens a lot of economic theory becomes less relevant. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-scarcity_economy#:~:text=... .

If you believe that post scarcity is possible at all, you might consider that space colonization is also possible, but that brings about new significant requirements and needs that our economy will have to meet. Personally I think our civilization's ambition needs to expand so that happens. If we are still putting the "American Dream" as a goal when that can be built and satisfied cheaply by automation, then our goals need to change. A post scarcity economy would be able to meet today's American Dream easily and with little trouble, and yet we can't shake the mindset that you have to earn it because that makes it mean more or something.

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#127

I've wondered what the effect our modern digital economy has had on consumer price inflation. Normally, an increase in money supply would cause consumer goods to increase in price, since more people are able to buy them and there is a limit on how much of any particular physical good is available. This isn't the case, however, for digital goods. If there are suddenly 100 million new people who want to buy a Netflix s…

We are entering a Post Scarcity Economy. A lot of fiction books write about how this plays out. Regardless of what happens a lot of economic theory becomes less relevant. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Post-scarcity_economy#:~:text=... .

What I will write probably wont be a popular opinion, but I completly disagree that we enter post scarcity.

Post scarcity perhaps exists in some richest parts of selected countries (California? Hamburg?), but even in those places it is often just an illusion. Roads still have potholes and there are homeless on streets. Schools still struggle with supplies. There are also people who work, but whose work does not allow them to get a real place to live, or health services. Then there are other things that are difficult to measure: for example overworking, or drug addiction, which perhaps dont mean scarcity of goods, but seem to be connected with scarcity of services or scarcity of quality of life.

People from the rich countries consume more natural resources than the few billion in developing, or third world countries. What happens now is already completely unsustainable and causes multiple problems: global warming, loss of natural habitats, dying species...

There are billions of people in Africa or India, who dont consume even 10% of the resources that an average American consumes - but they sure as hell would prefer to get to that level.

I imagine that it is easy to make comments about post scarcity when you live in some mega-rich bubble in California, but this is not true even for USA, not to mention the rest of the world.

People in poor countries dont have cars YET and they sure want to drive those big trucks that drink a lot of fuel per mile. But where will this fuel come from? And where does the CO2 go?

And in my opinion inflation is a result of incompetence, of planned policy by central banks to make the rich richer, while the rest to gets poorer. As much as I dont like bitcoin (multiple reasons, economical, unsustainable in real use..), it is right with one thing: the supply is known in advance and finite. We currently live in a time where money is printed out of thin air to save the too-big-to-fail banks and to pump the stockmarket prices, so rich dont lose anything. All of this at the expense of the middle class. The poor already dont have anything. And the middle class is shrinking: from one side those are the only ones who pay taxes, from other, those are the only ones who dont have real tools to defend against inflation.

I mean, of course you will write that one can gamble on the stockmarket, but weren't saving accounts supposed to be the thing for those who are risk averse? I mean, if someone from middle class gambles and loses you will write that it is their own fault. If they dont gamble - and put money on a savings account (so lose money) - also their own fault.

Currently the central banks create inflation higher than interest on saving accounts, what in my opinion is a very big problem. Since the central banks entered the cycle of bailing out bubbles, more and more money will be created: new and new bubbles will have to be bailed out.. and as I said, at expense of the middle class. Who just get screwed by inflation.

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#128

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A different part of the Federal government has a mandate of paying people harmed by the Federal Governments actions. Just make the argument and see. Google Scholar has all of that court’s cases online in plain text.

But if the government raises taxes you don’t get to sue for lost expected income (absent some specific extenuating circumstances), do you?

What do the Court of Claims cases say? Were those cases dismissed?

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#129
post #40

I've wondered what the effect our modern digital economy has had on consumer price inflation. Normally, an increase in money supply would cause consumer goods to increase in price, since more people are able to buy them and there is a limit on how much of any particular physical good is available. This isn't the case, however, for digital goods. If there are suddenly 100 million new people who want to buy a Netflix s…

Businesses charge what customers are willing to pay. If they have more money, they are willing to pay more. Competitiuis the countervailing force, but Netflix has exclusives and serials and network effects (fandoms and friends)

"If they have more money, they are willing to pay more."

That's like totally wrong. Goods provide some value to the customer, and that determines what they are willing to pay for it. If I wake up a millionaire tomorrow, that doesn't mean I am suddenly willing to spend $500 the same haircut that was $50 yesterday.

Re: The Ultimate Guide to Inflation

#130
post #102

I've wondered what the effect our modern digital economy has had on consumer price inflation. Normally, an increase in money supply would cause consumer goods to increase in price, since more people are able to buy them and there is a limit on how much of any particular physical good is available. This isn't the case, however, for digital goods. If there are suddenly 100 million new people who want to buy a Netflix s…

Also the marginal cost for Macdonals to serve one more hamburger is also very low. And anything that is automated has very small marginal cost, which is most stuff now a day. If you want to measure inflation, check how much it cost to hire a plumber. And craftsman likes to charge even numbers, so they will jump from $100/hour to $200/hour (rather then from 100 to 110)

The better way to think about this is how much a CPU costs.

To build a modern CPU takes a factory and supply chain that costs multiple billions of dollars. It is a piece of cutting edge technology, sitting at the pinnacle of human engineering achievement. No matter how you rich you get individually, it's not actually possible to through individual effort to buy a CPU which is substantially better then the same thing any consumer can buy.

...so as a result, we sell them to everyone for less then cost of a few weeks groceries.

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