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The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

cnbc.com

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Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#451

Post by salawat »

cfn wrote: post #76
tomxor wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would be careful to conflate internet connected trash with enough ARM cores and LoC to make your brain melt with the likes of a well placed humble microcontroller.. the mechanical or analogue components they replaced were usually far more temperamental, bulky, expensive and bad at their job. There are exceptional environments like in nuclear power, but for most purposes integrated electronics have improved reliabil…

Anyone who ever tried to fix a broken washing machine mechanical timer/programmer agrees with you. I did try and failed miserably, those things were a nightmare to fix and broke quite easily.

Done so, still prefer analog up until things get so small or fragile they can't hold up anymore. As long as the part is still manufactured, you're good.

PCB's? Forget it. E-waste central.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#452

Post by SilasX »

throwawayboise wrote: post #424
SilasX wrote: post #317

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, and the smart move there is to take the offer and pay it early, which is still stupid on the dealer's part.

Assuming you can. Some deals are set up so that you have to pay most of the interest even if you pay the loan off early, or other prepayment penalties.

Yes, prepayment penalties are a thing. But every time this comes up, we see reports of too-good-to-be -true deals that don't have them. See, for example, this thread:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=14484615

I also had a friend do exactly what I described, and there was another thread where they only had to make two payments and then could pay off the rest without penalty (and even that was an unspoken gentlemen's agreement with the dealer) -- will find if I get a chance.

The point is, it's simply not warranted to assume as a bedrock of truth that no dealer every makes a confused deal in this respect, as chrisseaton was insisting.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#453

Post by stefan_ »

devit wrote: post #332
robomartin wrote: post #302

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As I finished writing that comment (and I truly tried to be constructive as the author is young and inexperienced) I remembered another traumatic event of that era. Every order we received was like precious molecules of much needed oxygen. We got this order from one of our resellers (we had about fifty all over the world at the time) for about half a million dollars in product. This needs to be in the right context:…

Maybe the real lesson of the whole thread is to require customers to pay in advance with a non-reversible wire transfer, or at least via an escrow service contingent on delivering the goods. Or alternatively, somehow buy insurance against the customer failing to pay.

Thats called supply chain financing but of course the biggest company in that space Greensill just went up in flames.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#454

Post by bluedino »

smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

Automakers don’t carry much inventory. Issues at any of the suppliers can cause big holdups in production.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#455

Post by vel0city »

sokoloff wrote: post #217
nradov wrote: post #175

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Current low interest rates on car loans make that approach a bit pointless.

Borrowing also means you have to carry collision insurance, the surplus value (over the expected payout) of which should also be considered a finance charge if you’d otherwise not carry it.

If you were to buy a car in cash for $40k+, would you really not bother to carry comprehensive insurance on it? Are there really that many people out there where a $40k+ oops just isn't a big deal, just go buy another?

I don't carry comprehensive insurance on my car. I drive a 2000 Honda Accord though, so the KBB value (and what they quoted me for) was only about $1000. I wouldn't carry comprehensive on that. But you bet if I've got $40k+ rolling down the road and in the elements it's going to have some insurance on it.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#456

Post by golemiprague »

throwaway3699 wrote: post #2

I've always wondered what it would be like to suddenly lose the ability to build higher technology like computer chips. Obviously this is just a shortage and not the same as manufacturing just vanishing, but the effects will be interesting to observe.

At the end of the bronze age there was a shortage of tin to create the bronze (with copper). This caused the beginning of the iron age as people were looking for alternatives to bronze and once tin was back in the market it was not valuable anymore. The whole process was coincided with falling of civilisations, disruption of trade and general reorganisation of world powers, so expect some of that.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#457

Post by AnimalMuppet »

giardini wrote: post #363
varispeed wrote: post #256

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I change a car every few years and this year is the time. So while I have been looking at what can I get now, I found that my current car is worth more now than when I bought it used 3 years ago. Crazy...

So keep it. Many posters here might be happy to buy your "old" car and drive it another 4-6 years. Do it yourself.

Or another 10 or 15.

Three months ago, I took my car camping in the Mojave Desert. I go on mostly good roads, but I go places that there aren't many people. If my car had broken down, I could have been in some degree of trouble. But it's solid enough that I wasn't worried.

This month my car is old enough to qualify for its own driver's license.

16 years old, but it's been bulletproof reliable for all 16 years. The interior isn't thrashed. It still has as much power as ever, or at least as much power as I ever use. It's long since paid for. Why would I replace it?

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#458

Post by artificialLimbs »

throwawayboise wrote: post #394
dehrmann wrote: post #327

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This will be a weird number because I rarely see pickups in urban centers with lots of pedestrians, but I see them all the time in rural places.

They are actually useful vehicles in rural places.

This thread is filled with ignorant city boys who have never done any useful farm work.

I cannot imagine how excrutiating it would be for my wife to have to pay a bunch of stupid taxes and follow a bunch of fascist new laws in order to grow her 100sq ft garden every year which, even so small, STILL requires truckloads of compost and mulch since we are just in the process of building our soil. And that's just for the gardens. I don't have any idea how many times we've hauled in cow, pig, and goat panels. I propose that the assholes proposing taxes and limits on trucks find a way to bring us these goods.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#459

Post by sokoloff »

vel0city wrote: post #455
sokoloff wrote: post #217

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Borrowing also means you have to carry collision insurance, the surplus value (over the expected payout) of which should also be considered a finance charge if you’d otherwise not carry it.

If you were to buy a car in cash for $40k+, would you really not bother to carry comprehensive insurance on it? Are there really that many people out there where a $40k+ oops just isn't a big deal, just go buy another? I don't carry comprehensive insurance on my car. I drive a 2000 Honda Accord though, so the KBB value (and what they quoted me for) was only about $1000. I wouldn't carry comprehensive on that. But you…

I've usually dropped collision coverage on cars when they get under around $15K. (All but one of my cars was purchased for less than this, often much less.)

If I had a 0% loan on it for some reason at that point, that meant paying off the loan to let me do that. (If you assume an 8% nominal return on investments, that means when paying off the loan would cost me under $100/mo.)

I think you should insure against risks that would be a substantial impact to your life and (generally) not insure against risks that wouldn't.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#460

Post by AnimalMuppet »

anonymousab wrote: post #132
perardi wrote: post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

There are still lots, and lots, and lots of dumb appliances. I think you’d have to go out of the way to buy a toothbrush with Bluetooth, and I see many a non-smart fridge in the best sellers at Home Depot. ( https://www.homedepot.com/b/Appliances-Refrigerators-Side-by... ) For all the hooplah about smart homes and Alexa and Thread and Merlin Mann screaming about HomeKit and blah blah blah…most people have dumb lightb…

> For all the hooplah about smart homes and Alexa and Thread and blah blah blah…most people have dumb lightbulbs, dumb garage doors, and dumb fridges. For now. The profits to be made on microtransactions and subscriptions from internet-requiring features are too gargantuan to pass up, to not become the new norm. And, of course, unblockable ads and tracking. A fun recent example is a motorcycle emergency vest that sto…

No, they'll only become the new norm if the majority of people buy them. And they cost more, because internet-enabled components aren't free. And most people really don't see the value in an internet-connected light bulb. Does it emit more light? No? Then why would I pay more for it? So if they have to sell the higher-cost BOM for the same price (because people see no reason to pay more), then where are the gargantuan profits?

So I really don't see internet-connected X taking over the market, no matter how much money companies could make if customers cooperated.

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