The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences • Hacker News Board

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#251

Post by Larrikin » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

unclebucknasty wrote: post #186

jimbob45 wrote: post #163

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the idea is that you accrue the interest yourself instead of paying it to someone else.

Yeah, but a savings account? Interest rates for savings are abysmal, and auto-loans are themselves frequently near (or at) zero these days, so it's losing advice as-given. Better advice: put the money in the market or other higher-yielding investment, then take a low or no interest loan on the vehicle when the time comes so those investments can continue to grow at the much higher clip. Money's just too cheap to give…

What percentage are you talking about as being abysmal. 0.1% offered at some shitty brick and mortar bank is terrible but nearly all the online first banks offer (or offered before covid) what I thought was a decent 1-3%

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#252

Post by betamaxthetape » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:42 PM UTC

cfn wrote: post #76

tomxor wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I would be careful to conflate internet connected trash with enough ARM cores and LoC to make your brain melt with the likes of a well placed humble microcontroller.. the mechanical or analogue components they replaced were usually far more temperamental, bulky, expensive and bad at their job. There are exceptional environments like in nuclear power, but for most purposes integrated electronics have improved reliabil…

Anyone who ever tried to fix a broken washing machine mechanical timer/programmer agrees with you. I did try and failed miserably, those things were a nightmare to fix and broke quite easily.

I'd agree that mechanical mechanisms may break more easily than microprocessor equivalents, but I'm not sure about the argument that they are more difficult to repair.

With microprocessor-driven systems, the solutions seems to be to replace the entire PCB, which is often completely custom to the manufacturer or even the specific model of machine. Trying to source a reasonably priced replacement is often difficult, and there's no easy way to diagnose and repair a broken PCB.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#253

Post by bredren » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:45 PM UTC

tricolon wrote: post #226

bredren wrote: post #189

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I sure hope so. I think car culture is bad art. But to defend the analogy, iPod Video was iPod gen 5. Apple did two more generations on that format with the minimum additional feature set. That might take a while. And there will be many a Zune sold in the meantime.

Can you elaborate a bit? I am quite familiar with the various iPods but quite unfamiliar with cars.

There are a lot of car enthusiasts here who can explain what makes new cars cool. You'll have to make your own comparison to iPod features from 2005.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#254

Post by samfisher83 » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:45 PM UTC

smiley1437 wrote: post #58

Interestingly, there is an embedded video in that article that explains the issue specific to the automotive shortage - it's because the automotive industry cancelled a lot of chip orders in anticipation of low vehicle demand and that caused chip makers to reduce their production for the kinds of chips that go into cars, and now it takes time to ramp back up: https://www.cnbc.com/video/2021/03/02/how-the-global-compu…

Its the whole JIT inventories stuff they preach in business school. Toyota actually stocked enough chips to handle something like this.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#255

Post by tonyedgecombe » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:45 PM UTC

istjohn wrote: post #206

ineedasername wrote: post #138

My wife just needed to get a new car, and the salesman was complaining that just as demand was starting to increase the chip shortage means they're barely getting any new ones in stock. And of course the popular models are the ones that are selling out the fastest, meaning people are holding off on purchases because they can't get what they want. My wife's was one of maybe 8 in the entire state that had the features…

There's a dead sibling comment stating that car sales won't be a job in 20 years. I would speculate that sales and other careers that are high-touch and relationship focused are precisely the kind of jobs that will be most resistant to automation.

I don’t know, I’ve been rather pleased not to have to talk to a salesman when buying car insurance for example.

If I was buying a new car the same would apply.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#256

Post by varispeed » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:45 PM UTC

ineedasername wrote: post #138

My wife just needed to get a new car, and the salesman was complaining that just as demand was starting to increase the chip shortage means they're barely getting any new ones in stock. And of course the popular models are the ones that are selling out the fastest, meaning people are holding off on purchases because they can't get what they want. My wife's was one of maybe 8 in the entire state that had the features…

I change a car every few years and this year is the time. So while I have been looking at what can I get now, I found that my current car is worth more now than when I bought it used 3 years ago. Crazy...

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#257

Post by merb » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:47 PM UTC

o-__-o wrote: post #212

ineedasername wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features That really depends on how old your car is. I generally buy instead of lease, and run the car until it starts having regular problems. As a result, my car is 12 years old, and any new one from the last few years is a significant upgrade in terms of features. I don't really want a monthly car payment again, but I'm almost looking forward to when my curren…

All modern cars have amazing new features. Air bags, reverse cameras, steering by wire, ABS, direct fuel injection, massively boosted turbocharged engines (on econoboxes!) and traction control as standard. My 7 year old car has all of the above and can park itself, has adaptive cruise control, and for $400 I added a 12” touch screen stereo. Compared to my last car, my current car outputs up to 20psi of boost compared…

you forgot the most important thing. cas, one system (aeb) is required in european in 2022.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#258

Post by simias » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:48 PM UTC

krapht wrote: post #211

simias wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don't know but maybe one of the factors is that given how cheap microntrollers have become it's not uncommon to use an "overpowered" integrated chip just for ease of development. Suppose that you have to drive some LEDs on a washing machine, do you bother developing some optimized bespoke circuitry with discrete components or do you just slap a ~2$ 100+MHz 32bit Cortex controller that will let you implement all the…

Eh, no, that's not how it works in high-volume manufacturing. There are 70 million washing machines sold per year. Suppose your large conglomerate employer sells 0.7% of that total, or 700,000 units. It doesn't take much of a per-unit savings to pay for the salary of a FTE to optimize the design.

Maybe, you have to see if the cost of having independent components (dev time, prototyping etc...) is worth the few cents saved on the BoM.

Then you have to consider that IC designs are usually easier to reuse since they're more flexible, if you can have a single design with different firmwares for your entire line of products vs custom hardware for every design. Even if you sell 700k units/year you probably have a few models in your inventory, each selling for a fraction of that.

Beyond that it's pretty common for modern appliances to come with so-called "smart" features that require more processing and more IO capabilities. It's not rare for modern coffee makers to come with a color screen instead of the good old 7 segment displays.

So really the equation is not that simple, especially for higher end models that will have a more expensive BoM overall and a lower number of units sold.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#259

Post by pharke » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:50 PM UTC

baybal2 wrote: post #205

reportingsjr wrote: post #59

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most of the chips in these shortages are being produced on either older process nodes, or on slightly specialized nodes. The typical micro that's been hit by this is using anywhere from a 28nm to 180nm node. The trouble is, this is a temporary shortage, so it makes no sense to spend serious cash (you're talking hundreds of millions) to make a new fab when the demand won't be there in a year or two.

> The trouble is, this is a temporary shortage It isn't. Designs on 200mm were in dire shortage for half a decade, and Chinese foundries were making very decent money on decades old chips. For the last 3-4 years, 200mm-180nm had a 12 month+ backlog across the whole market.

I wonder if there's a good business in the mix of these ideas. If a lot of manufacturers actually are using over powered chips because they are a) more available and b) easier to program with newer tooling then one might be able to find a niche making cheaper/simpler/older style chips if they also provided modern tooling making it easier to program them for simple tasks like weighing things, blinking lights, playing little tunes, reading a sensor, etc. I've heard good things about PlatformIO so leveraging that ecosystem could be a win as far as avoiding creating your own IDE. Producing great documentation for the products would also go a long way towards gaining adoption.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#260

Post by dntrkv » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:50 PM UTC

heisenbit wrote: post #243

mywittyname wrote: post #201

Earlier quoted context omitted.

They've been low for a while now too. As annoying as it is to have a $670 car payment each month, you really can't beat 0% interest on a $40k loan. Especially in a market where the average monthly return on $40k in stocks has been pretty substantial.

0% loan on the sticker price. The goal of coming in with cash is to get as far as possible below the sticker price.

Dealers don't care whether you pay cash or finance. Just call around dealers within a certain mile radius you are willing to drive and find the best deal. This has been, and will always be, the best way to get a deal.