The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences • Hacker News Board

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#231

Post by undeadcomment » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:31 PM UTC

Snoozle wrote: post #203

NegativeLatency wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Toyota Tacoma is now the size of older F150s, there aren’t many or really any good options for buying a small truck currently.

Can you give examples of model years and decisions to back up your claim? Last I checked this (common) misconception is patently false.

Curb weight of base Tacoma has increased almost 2000 pounds (2700lb to 4400lb) from 1990 to 2021. Length increased >3ft (174" to 212"). The 1990 Tacoma was shorter and lighter than a "modern" sedan.

But you really should learn how to use the internet, it's rad.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#232

Post by bredren » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:31 PM UTC

TigeriusKirk wrote: post #180

bredren wrote: post #98

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since 14% of renters are behind on rent and evictions begin June 30, aren’t vehicle repossessions going to kick in July / August? Presumably, due in part to eviction protection, they have been able to divert all or a portion of their rent payments to keeping up with bad car loans for commute vehicles that often will not be needed. These folks need them for housing unfortunately. If repossessed cars start showing up t…

That's an interesting theory. Anecdotally, I occasionally pass by a lot where repossessed cars are stored. I've noticed there have considerably fewer cars in their lots of late, with whole sections completely empty. I'd guessed bad car loans just weren't being made with the pandemic, but this theory makes a lot more sense.

I like that you have this small visual indicator of vehicle repossession rates. If someone took sat photos and performed vehicle count on lots like this across the country that would be a quite an interesting set of data frames.

If might not matter if a person pays the rent, but people are definitely on the hook with both their lenders and their auto insurance providers.

It has also never been easier to recognize a vehicle marked for repo than it is today. Vigilant's (Motarola) DRN and MVTrac are mature, growing while the cost of new LPR equipment continues to go down.

When it comes to the repo man, It's never been a worse time to be in violation of a car loan or lease.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#233

Post by dahart » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:32 PM UTC

syshum wrote: post #198

neltnerb wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

Never let a crisis go to waste Companies always piggy back on the current crisis to make changes or blame issues on that crisis that have nothing at all to do with the actual crisis... come to think about it, governments also do this.

> come to think about it, governments also do this

This was my thought watching the video in the article. It went on and on about supply shortages, China, and the Biden administration’s talks to prevent shortage as well as Chinese competition, and then near the end of the video, two little details slip by so fast you could miss them: auto makers cancelled their own orders, now they want their place in line back, and the biggest chip maker (TSMC) is in Taiwan, but it’s really close to China, so it still counts.

Yes, preventing supply shortages and paying attention to national security are good things. But neither of those would address the specific “shortage” behind this article & video.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#234

Post by chrisseaton » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:35 PM UTC

wizzwizz4 wrote: post #128

ineedasername wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features That really depends on how old your car is. I generally buy instead of lease, and run the car until it starts having regular problems. As a result, my car is 12 years old, and any new one from the last few years is a significant upgrade in terms of features. I don't really want a monthly car payment again, but I'm almost looking forward to when my curren…

If you don't want a monthly car payment, start your “monthly car payment” into a savings account now. You'll end up paying less for your next car if you can maximise the up-front payment.

A savings account is just a way to burn money at the moment. Not recommended.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#235

Post by baybal2 » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:35 PM UTC

throwaway3699 wrote: post #2

I've always wondered what it would be like to suddenly lose the ability to build higher technology like computer chips. Obviously this is just a shortage and not the same as manufacturing just vanishing, but the effects will be interesting to observe.

The industry has largely forgotten how to make stuff without chips.

That's why I am telling people that a global chip shortage, if something happens to Taiwan, would bring the industry not back into fifties, but into the iron age.

The further the tech ladder you go, the harder you fall if somebody takes out your engineering bay.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#236

Post by infogulch » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:35 PM UTC

dokem wrote: post #221

epistasis wrote: post #183

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, the size of these trucks has completely put me off ever wanting one. I miss the small ones from a few decades ago... great for surfing, hauling the ver occasional bit of stuff, just as useful as the ugly beasts of today but far cheaper and more maneuverable and safer. I think we need to start requiring commercial drivers licenses on some of these beasts. They are intentionally designed to be difficult to see ou…

Do pick up trucks cause more accidents? Is there data that supports this?

Or are modern pickup-pedestrian accidents more deadly than other classes of cars?

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#237

Post by TeMPOraL » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:35 PM UTC

syshum wrote: post #198

neltnerb wrote: post #193

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I get that this is a potential big problem, but I had to stop reading when the dog washing company blamed needing to respin a new board on a chip being out of stock due to this. I'm sorry, but if you aren't buying enough chips to build all the boards you want to build of a revision, this is just what happens, chip shortage or no. Stuff gets obsoleted all the time, it doesn't take a chip shortage. Blaming a black swan…

Never let a crisis go to waste Companies always piggy back on the current crisis to make changes or blame issues on that crisis that have nothing at all to do with the actual crisis... come to think about it, governments also do this.

And so do individuals. There's plenty of tragic or difficult moments that come unexpected in one's life, and it's easy to make them cover for unrelated issues, because questioning the explanation would be greatly untactful. A somewhat stereotypical example - a student that excuses their lack of homework and unpreparedness by mentioning their aunt died, even though they weren't really close with their aunt and they learned about the death an hour before the class started - it's an easy way out that nobody will dare question.

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#238

Post by 9000 » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:35 PM UTC

Snoozle wrote: post #203

NegativeLatency wrote: post #194

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Toyota Tacoma is now the size of older F150s, there aren’t many or really any good options for buying a small truck currently.

Can you give examples of model years and decisions to back up your claim? Last I checked this (common) misconception is patently false.

> Can you give examples of model years and decisions to back up your claim?

Actually, I think the burden of proof is on the GP who made the original claim that there are plenty of small trucks for those who want them. Additionally, it's easier for them —or you— to provide a single example of a common small truck than for the parent to provide a comprehensive breakdown of the sizes of all trucks over decades of model years. Plus, they have already pointed out the Tacoma, at least, as having grown.

> Last I checked this (common) misconception is patently false.

This is merely an assertion with no more evidence than the parent. To flip your question: Can you provide examples of small truck models to back up your claim?

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#239

Post by pja » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:36 PM UTC

o-__-o wrote: post #212

ineedasername wrote: post #124

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Most new cars still suck / Do not offer meaningful new features That really depends on how old your car is. I generally buy instead of lease, and run the car until it starts having regular problems. As a result, my car is 12 years old, and any new one from the last few years is a significant upgrade in terms of features. I don't really want a monthly car payment again, but I'm almost looking forward to when my curren…

All modern cars have amazing new features. Air bags, reverse cameras, steering by wire, ABS, direct fuel injection, massively boosted turbocharged engines (on econoboxes!) and traction control as standard. My 7 year old car has all of the above and can park itself, has adaptive cruise control, and for $400 I added a 12” touch screen stereo. Compared to my last car, my current car outputs up to 20psi of boost compared…

I bought a perfectly ordinary second hand vehicle for £3k in 2003 (it had been built in 1999) which had ABS, air bags everywhere, direct fuel injection, turbo-charged engine & traction control. Modern cars are pretty amazing things: a lot of these features have been standard for twenty years at this point! (The vehicle I bought was much favoured by UK taxi drivers at the time, which shows you how very boring & practical it was.)

Re: The global chip shortage is starting to have consequences

#240

Post by mhh__ » Sun, May 09, 2021, 4:36 PM UTC

sime2009 wrote: post #169

mhh__ wrote: post #79

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not require me to have to go up and down the stairs about 5-10 times to see how it's getting on, and then switch to dry, then check on its progress, etc.

Why does it require so much babysitting?

The timer has a mind of its own (i.e. it displays an estimate of when it thinks it's going to be finished), and the option to automatically start drying after finishing the wash cycle is either not present or extremely well obfuscated (The model that shows up on Google definitely has the option on the rotary encoder, the one I have has no such option).