31–40 of 331 posts
I may be missing something (not a mathematician, probabilist) but doesn’t the fact that the host would never reveal the car change the calculation? In the table shown in the article game 3 & 6 are nonsensical so with the remaining 4 games the odds are even between switch & stay.
I'm familiar with the problem and my intuition is still wrong. I wonder if you couldn't design a gambling machine that has a variant of the Monty Hall problem built-in favoring the house (naturally).
I guess Monte Carlo simulations weren't well-known or easily accessible back then? It would have been the perfect way to shut up her critics.
So this is at least in part about the "Monty Hall Problem" and why it's solution not intuitive. The article missed an important angle: when the host opens a door, he's giving you more information , which explains why it's better to switch. If you're the host, you need to know which door the car is behind to do your job 2/3 of the time, to avoid revealing it. It's this quality of unexpected information exchange that I…
The hubris of some of the her critics - especially ones with titles - is remarkable.
I'm willing to forgive pretty much anyone who's fooled by something that also fooled Paul Erdos: https://www.wired.com/2014/11/monty-hall-erdos-limited-minds...
[1] https://web.archive.org/web/20140413131827/http://www.decisi...
So this is at least in part about the "Monty Hall Problem" and why it's solution not intuitive. The article missed an important angle: when the host opens a door, he's giving you more information , which explains why it's better to switch. If you're the host, you need to know which door the car is behind to do your job 2/3 of the time, to avoid revealing it. It's this quality of unexpected information exchange that I…
I guess Monte Carlo simulations weren't well-known or easily accessible back then? It would have been the perfect way to shut up her critics.
You can't fight fire with fire, but you can fight Monty with Monte. :-)
I guess Monte Carlo simulations weren't well-known or easily accessible back then? It would have been the perfect way to shut up her critics.
Which public intellectual introduced Monty Hall to the public when awareness of the problem was at a similar low, and received the fewest incorrect responses?
"You made a mistake, but look at the positive side. If all those Ph.D.’s were wrong, the country would be in some very serious trouble."