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California population declines for first time in more than a century

wsj.com

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Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#181

Post by listless »

WarOnPrivacy wrote: post #159

Here in Florida, non-wealthy renters have become victims of a hostile takeover, by out of state home buyers. The vast bulk of us simply can't compete with California cash on FL wages. Rental properties are being sold to move-ins, causing rents here to triple or more. The number of available rentals has dropped to ~0. Leases aren't being renewed and these people have nowhere to go. This is unprecedented.

Same is happening in TN, but for home buyers. If you’re a first time buyer looking in the I have no idea what my kids are gonna do. They will never be able to afford a decent house at the current rate of growth.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#182

Post by ruined »

mixmastamyk wrote: post #173
J253 wrote: post #166

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I know that CA (LA, SF, SD) housing has always been expensive but it seems like in the past 20 years or so it’s become cumbersomely so. Unless you rode up on the wave of raising house prices through those years (presumably, mostly boomers, or you’re already ultra-wealthy) buying a decent single family home is out of the question. But with the boomer generation approaching EOL (sorry, a bit macabre) does anyone think…

That should help slow the rise, but since populations rise, I wouldn’t expect a big change. Only if nimbys were to kick off en masse and prop 13 were reformed.

populations don't always rise, and the boomers have implemented policy and stuck around long enough to kneecap the next generations and prevent younger people from starting families. america has dropped below replacement birth rate in the past few years, despite younger parents actually wanting to have more children

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#183

Post by ohazi »

jshen wrote: post #176
gautamcgoel wrote: post #67

I'm a PhD student at Caltech. I'd love to stay in CA and become a prof at one of the world-renown universities in the state. The cost for a nice house is > $800K in all of the cities hosting these universities; on top of that, the state income tax on a prof's salary is 9-10%. CA is basically telling me (and millions of other millennials) that we are not wanted here.

One thing to keep in mind about CA, once you buy that $800k house, your real estate taxes are more or less locked at that price and won’t rise as the value increases. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1978_California_Proposition_13

i.e. the original sin that gave us this problem in the first place.

It makes absolutely no sense to have the older, wealthier, luckier, "I got here early, therefore I'm set for life" generation pay $300/year, while the couple in their thirties who moved in two years ago, have a new baby, and can barely afford the mortgage and daycare despite both parents working in tech have to pay nearly $15,000/year.

I know the original argument for prop 13 was about how awful it was for poor little old ladies to lose their houses, but that is by far not the common case, and this level of inequality, stealing from the young to give to the old, is completely insane.

One way or another, this has to end.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#184

Post by darig »

pbuzbee wrote: post #178

I feel like it's only going to get worse. California has a good number of problems: housing costs, traffic, wildfires, homelessness, ... and the high tax rate you pay for the privilege of enjoying them. But I haven't seen California take meaningful steps to solve any of these. We're still in the stage of "problems are getting worse", and any solutions will take a long time to materialize. I grew up in California. It'…

We're still in the stage of Chinese investments taking over the industries that pay the highest wages, while also buying all the real estate those industry workers will rent... attracting the best talent from all over America, and filling any gaps with H1-B visas for connected Chinese immigrants.

It's a slow invasion and we're retreating. All hail Xi Jinping.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#185

Post by refurb »

J253 wrote: post #166
gautamcgoel wrote: post #67

I'm a PhD student at Caltech. I'd love to stay in CA and become a prof at one of the world-renown universities in the state. The cost for a nice house is > $800K in all of the cities hosting these universities; on top of that, the state income tax on a prof's salary is 9-10%. CA is basically telling me (and millions of other millennials) that we are not wanted here.

I know that CA (LA, SF, SD) housing has always been expensive but it seems like in the past 20 years or so it’s become cumbersomely so. Unless you rode up on the wave of raising house prices through those years (presumably, mostly boomers, or you’re already ultra-wealthy) buying a decent single family home is out of the question. But with the boomer generation approaching EOL (sorry, a bit macabre) does anyone think…

Parents with low prop 13 taxes will be giving those housing to their kids when they die as they can pass on the tax rate as well.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#186

Post by medium_burrito »

epistasis wrote: post #132
collaborative wrote: post #84

Earlier quoted context omitted.

No offense, but housing policy should focus on helping people at the bottom, which will eventually trickle up to the people at the top (where you are) Price control is an illusion and demand will outstrip supply for a long time But state-sponsored, ugly, tall affordable apartment blocks will save from misery those who need it the most (i.e. the homeless) and offer a surplus supply to perhaps not lower current prices…

We definitely need to produce healthy incentives and non-market rate housing, and IMHO housing is a human right (as the UN declared and the US signed on to last century). However, this is not the primary problem in California. The primary problem is that the wealthy are doing all they can to make sure that housing prices rise as much as possible. And because of the 5x leverage that a mortgage with a 20% down payment…

I'm going to disagree the wealthy care very much. This is a giant political can which we are basically kicking down the road.

The problem is middle class America has their entire net worth in the property, and it must appreciate. If that goes down, the entire middle class evaporates.

China has the same problem except 100x worse. Canada and Australia too, to a lesser degree. What happens when the music stops?

edit: mispellings, possibly due to poorly aged scotch

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#188

Post by CamperBob2 »

baby wrote: post #172
Wolfenstein98k wrote: post #115

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where do the extra billions come from?

Can we pay more taxes please? I’m serious.

Yes, in many jurisdictions voluntary contributions are accepted. I assume you've already explored this option?

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#189

Post by namelessoracle »

linguae wrote: post #95
gautamcgoel wrote: post #67

I'm a PhD student at Caltech. I'd love to stay in CA and become a prof at one of the world-renown universities in the state. The cost for a nice house is > $800K in all of the cities hosting these universities; on top of that, the state income tax on a prof's salary is 9-10%. CA is basically telling me (and millions of other millennials) that we are not wanted here.

I'm a lifelong Californian whose lived in Santa Cruz County for nearly nine out of the past 11 years, and as someone who wants to become a CS professor at a teaching university one day, I feel the exact same way. I love California and I don't want to leave the state. However, the housing prices signal to me that if I want to buy a house, I need to have a very high income and maintain it during the length of a 30-year…

Echoing others Atlanta is pretty much exactly what you are asking for. I dont think that will stay true for much longer with google and microsofts announced investments there however.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#190

Post by throwawayfrauds »

kstrauser wrote: post #5

I'm not sure how much I believe that. It seems likely that this census was incredibly compromised compared to past censuses, and the 0.4% decline is well within what I'd consider a plausible margin of error.

If you don’t believe this, then maybe believe the truck rental companies that were charging up to 10x for outgoing vehicles than incoming ones. There are more people moving out than moving in.
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