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California population declines for first time in more than a century

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Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#131
post #83
post #75

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Given the recent bailout of private multi employer pension funds inside of a “COVID Relied Bill” makes me think the democrats will just bail it out.

should the "democrats" have just let them fail? what would a different party have done? why did the party even matter?

Why should the federal government bailout private pensions?

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#132

I'm a PhD student at Caltech. I'd love to stay in CA and become a prof at one of the world-renown universities in the state. The cost for a nice house is > $800K in all of the cities hosting these universities; on top of that, the state income tax on a prof's salary is 9-10%. CA is basically telling me (and millions of other millennials) that we are not wanted here.

No offense, but housing policy should focus on helping people at the bottom, which will eventually trickle up to the people at the top (where you are) Price control is an illusion and demand will outstrip supply for a long time But state-sponsored, ugly, tall affordable apartment blocks will save from misery those who need it the most (i.e. the homeless) and offer a surplus supply to perhaps not lower current prices…

We definitely need to produce healthy incentives and non-market rate housing, and IMHO housing is a human right (as the UN declared and the US signed on to last century).

However, this is not the primary problem in California. The primary problem is that the wealthy are doing all they can to make sure that housing prices rise as much as possible. And because of the 5x leverage that a mortgage with a 20% down payment earns, any small shortage of housing greatly amplifies prices even further, accelerating asset price inflation for the landed class, giving them even greater gains.

So we have two structural problems 1) the one you mention where wages are not enough to produce or maintain housing, and 2) those with the resources to build housing for themselves are not allowed to use those resources for more housing, instead transferring all wealth to the landed class instead of productive uses.

If we don't solve 2), we will never have enough resources done 1) because the landlords will still take all the money of the working class.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#133
post #6

Finally some good news for CA natives. It sucks not being able to afford to live where you grew up. Maybe this will ease the housing market a bit?

I'm for building reasonably priced housing, and apartments. In CA, Governor Neusome signed some sort of mandate, that put hard limits (build more you NIMBY's) on new housing. It was done for the right reasons. A lot of his wealthy supporters could care less about rent, but he doesn't seem to be able to be bought--yet. It's tied to state funds? I would like to know more, but too lazy to do research. Our little towns,…

Thank you sir for very interesting stories, and a good point about water potentially being a limiting factor - clearly a solvable problem but not at all ignorable or trivial either. Please don't mind the downvoters and continue adding your unique and interesting perspectives!

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#134
post #18

Paradise on Earth and home to the world’s brightest-future industry; California could easily grow to 100M residents if it simply allowed housing to be built to accommodate all the people who want to live here. And it would be a net win for the climate, because most of them would be coming from much less eco-friendly places.

I grew up in a high population density area with 3 generation sharing the same apartment because that was the way to go. It is far from being a bright future one would want.

Constant conflicts in the family because the grandparents want to watch TV, parents need to rest after work, and the child wants to study.

Constantly hearing your neighbors when they want to have a party, or do some renovation.

Trashed up common spaces because some guys just don't give a damn and will throw trash, or literally pee on the staircase, and you are forced to share some area with them.

I grew up with the biggest dream of escaping that hell and it was one of the main reasons I immigrated to the West, where having your own private house was still affordable for most people.

Now, through unwise fiscal policies and excessive centralization, the entire generation is completely priced out of it. But instead of seeking to change these policies, push for decentralization, and be able to afford freedom and independence, they seek to blame those who was born in a luckier time and want to force everybody to live in a concrete box. I don't think it's the right way.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#135
post #95

I'm a PhD student at Caltech. I'd love to stay in CA and become a prof at one of the world-renown universities in the state. The cost for a nice house is > $800K in all of the cities hosting these universities; on top of that, the state income tax on a prof's salary is 9-10%. CA is basically telling me (and millions of other millennials) that we are not wanted here.

I'm a lifelong Californian whose lived in Santa Cruz County for nearly nine out of the past 11 years, and as someone who wants to become a CS professor at a teaching university one day, I feel the exact same way. I love California and I don't want to leave the state. However, the housing prices signal to me that if I want to buy a house, I need to have a very high income and maintain it during the length of a 30-year…

I grew up in Atlanta and highly recommend it.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#136

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Personally, I disagree, the people of California are probably one of the best parts of it, IMHO. If it's just the climate or the views, there are many other great places in the West coast that are cheaper and have the same natural amenities. But the people are irreplaceable, which is what make California so much more desirable than those other places that you aren't living. However if there was a system for limiting…

> you get like 30 years but then have to leave Yikes. I wouldn't want to move to this state to begin with if it had a law like that. Also, who would that apply to? Farmers? Families? If someone has lived here for 40 years and is retired, would they have to leave?

It's an absolutely horrible, awful, no good system.

We can act all shocked and horrified that somebody has to leave their home and their roots, but that's what we have already with the current system.

It's just that it's people with less wealth that are being forced out, rather than the policy being applied to everyone equally. Doesn't matter if they lived here for 60 years, retired, then had a medical expense that cost them all their savings and their home. It happens to people that lives here their entire lives, retired into social security, then were priced out.

If we are going to entertain some idea of "demand side management" it had better be applied fairly to everyone, because our entire system is built upon freedom of movement. If one state is going to opt out of that system, it needs to be applied fairly to its population rather than unfairly.

And if we are going to maintain a system where people can be arbitrarily forced out of all their social connections, then we should just make that clear from the start. That would really lessen the demand.

I think that people should have a right to stay where they are. But with that right comes a responsibility to either let more people live nearby.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#137
post #112
post #88

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes they should. Because the alternative is subsidizing the same bad behavior across the the entire nation and bankrupting our grandchildren before they’re even born.

How does letting those pensions go bankrupt help anything? If the funds go bankrupt, it isn't the executives who used financial shenanigans to bleed the funds dry that face consequences. It is the employees who had no role in the management of the pension funds that end up punished. If you want to actually stop that bad behavior, we need to massively overhaul how we address whitecollar crime in this country so that b…

Do you have reading material on how the funds have gotten into dire straits?

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#138
post #95

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm a lifelong Californian whose lived in Santa Cruz County for nearly nine out of the past 11 years, and as someone who wants to become a CS professor at a teaching university one day, I feel the exact same way. I love California and I don't want to leave the state. However, the housing prices signal to me that if I want to buy a house, I need to have a very high income and maintain it during the length of a 30-year…

I grew up in Atlanta and highly recommend it.

I have some dear Santa Cruz friends with a toddler that just informed us that they are moving to Atlanta next month. Her mother and her entire family grew up near Santa Cruz, but all her siblings have migrated to Atlanta, because of housing, and her mother finally did too. Without family support, they've decided to leave now too.

They have good jobs, just not good enough to rent more than a two bedroom hovel.

This is the story with pretty much any friend that doesn't either come from a family with enough wealth to manage down payments for all the kids, or a crazy-high income from the right type of job.

If we keep in pricing out everyone except for those with family wealth or high incomes, we will lose most of the people that make California great and interesting.

Re: California population declines for first time in more than a century

#140

Hotel California is now the place you never check in. You're a visitor, like it or not. The established interests in California are hostile to the people who would live in it. Life is dirty, crowded, and economically inhospitable, and the future promises more of the same.

Username doesn’t check out

He’s sailing away from California in the largest boat he can afford, thanks to the high cost of living:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Optimist_(dinghy)

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