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Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

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Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#351
post #121

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think you’re talking about Figure 5 which is the ratio of total to reported COVID related deaths. This would mean that CA underreported COVID related deaths compared to Florida. Figure 7, the cumulative total death rate, is probably more relevant to the point you’re trying to make, in which case FL and CA are in the same bin. One conclusion you might draw is that the effectiveness of lockdowns cannot be inferred fr…

If California did underreport Covid-related deaths compared to Florida, that in itself would be interesting because endless column inches were spent on claims that Florida was underreporting its Covid deaths as part of a cover-up by its evil right-wing leaders and we definitely didn't see nearly so many claims that California was doing this.

What do you stand to gain by spreading political narratives even more? It doesn’t matter what side they say they’re on. Take, for instance, the democratic governor of NY, among the biggest culprits of hiding reporting on deaths. What’s the point?

Maybe your problem is more with the media than any side which they defined.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#353

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for now we assume that total COVID-19 deaths equal excess mortality. This seems reasonable, although I'd suggest it's an underestimate of COVID-19 deaths. Excess deaths counts have been consistently showing negative in countries during periods of time where they have coronavirus under control. Other significant causes of death (including suicide, influenza, road traffic accidents) appear to be down. As such, I'd as…

> Excess deaths counts have been consistently showing negative in countries during periods of time where they have coronavirus under control. > Other significant causes of death (including suicide, influenza, road traffic accidents) appear to be down. That's most probably a direct factor of the containment measures. Influenza has been on sometimes historic lows ( https://www.who.int/influenza/surveillance_monitoring/…

Suicides rates are the same or down in most of the world[0], and were apparently reduced in the US during the pandemic[1].

[0] https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lanpsy/article/PIIS2215-0...

[1] https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.02.13.21251682v...

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#355

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for now we assume that total COVID-19 deaths equal excess mortality. This seems reasonable, although I'd suggest it's an underestimate of COVID-19 deaths. Excess deaths counts have been consistently showing negative in countries during periods of time where they have coronavirus under control. Other significant causes of death (including suicide, influenza, road traffic accidents) appear to be down. As such, I'd as…

> Other significant causes of death (including suicide, influenza, road traffic accidents) appear to be down. Can you source your other claims? At least one seems to be wrong. Traffic deaths seem to be up: https://www.usatoday.com/story/money/cars/2021/03/05/pandemi...

Other countries are reporting otherwise, typically in the tens of percents down. Singapore, Greece, India, Germany, UK, Zambia, Malta, Philippines:

https://www.todayonline.com/singapore/fall-traffic-accidents...

https://www.marketscreener.com/news/latest/Road-Traffic-Acci...

https://www.hindustantimes.com/cities/delhi-news/road-accide...

https://www.destatis.de/EN/Themes/Society-Environment/Traffi...

https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/reported-road-casua...

https://zambiareports.com/2020/07/22/332-die-road-accidents-...

https://newsbook.com.mt/en/2021-sees-decline-in-road-traffic...

https://www.topgear.com.ph/news/motoring-news/mmda-edsa-road...

These are mostly unchecked secondary sources, of course. But, your secondary source, the "National Safety Council", appears to over-report deaths compared to the Department of Transportation's later figures. In 2019, they over-reported by... 8%.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#356

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> people avoiding medical treatment People avoiding medical treatment is awkward in the figures, because - medical treatment sometimes kills people. First link I found suggests that medical treatments cause 800,000 deaths per year in the USA. If medical treatments are really down, I'd guess we might actually expect mortality figures to be temporarily down (but, higher later).

> irst link I found suggests that medical treatments cause 800,000 deaths per year in the USA. That number pops up all the time in clickbait headlines, but the study behind it doesn't really support the claim. There is a pretty substantial difference between "Deaths caused by medical mistakes" and "Deaths that occur in a certain timeframe after a medical mistake occurs" (which is what the study actually looked at) ar…

I really ought to reread my comments during the edit window... That second paragraph...

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#357
post #288

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> There are lots of other plausible alternative hypotheses. I would be curious which ones that would be.

Sure, here's a much better treatment of the same subject: https://ourworldindata.org/covid-excess-mortality

Which is an excellent article. I just fail to see how you think it's inconsistent with the numbers in the IHME story above or their methodology. Lots of these confounding factors are expressly enumerated. I mean, do experts like the authors of that OWiD article find the same fault with IHME that you do? Can you cite some making similar criticisms?

Again, I get the distinct feeling that you're arguing with methodology here not because there's anything particularly suspicious with IHME at all, but because the conclusion (that the US is approaching 1M covid deaths, something that should surprise no one) is politically inconvenient.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#358
post #177

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for now we assume that total COVID-19 deaths equal excess mortality. This seems reasonable, although I'd suggest it's an underestimate of COVID-19 deaths. Excess deaths counts have been consistently showing negative in countries during periods of time where they have coronavirus under control. Other significant causes of death (including suicide, influenza, road traffic accidents) appear to be down. As such, I'd as…

> [Edited to note: the linked article discusses this with further detail and evidence] Here's the sum total of evidence provided: > An analysis by the Netherlands statistical agency suggested that all excess deaths in the Netherlands were directly due to COVID-19 So they use a single study out of Europe to extrapolate here. > The second driver of excess mortality is reduced health care utilization for many causes;3 h…

> The second driver of excess mortality is reduced health care utilization for many causes;

Wouldn't that still be technically tangentially an after effect of covid? I mean no covid, no reason not to get to the doctor, so if covid didn't exist you might survive those, no?

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#359

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I suspect this is the same in other countries. 25-44 year olds don't usually die (typical mortality is approx 0.1%), so +25% represents a relatively small number in absolute terms.

USA is an outlier on this. You can compare with Italy for example: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-... https://www.statista.com/statistics/1105061/coronavirus-deat... USA has 30 times the deaths among 30-39 year olds but only 5.5 times the population. It isn't just Italy, almost every other country has a distribution similar to Italy.

Italy has a huge older population and a lot more lax on cigarettes... older smokers = raised chances of death...

USA on the other hand has excess obesity across all metrics (I'm one), so if it hit younger ages harder here it's probably due to obesity epidemic raising death chances.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#360
post #165

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Or, maybe California was hit earlier, having a greater share of its total cases relatively early in the pandemic and geographically concentrated, meaning more overwhelmed hospitals and more use of early-pandemic treatment protocols that both overused ventilation based on generic protocols not tuned to COVID’ behavior and lacked more effective treatments developed during the pandemic. (I mean, that definitely happened…

From what I remember, Florida and California were hit at the same time, but California went on and on and on, while Florida somehow ended. Maybe I can find graphs.

Florida was hit way earlier. You can see that from the excess mortality graphs here [1].

Here's a cumulative death per capita graph for 5 states that illustrate 5 different patterns [2]. Most states followed one of these patterns.

There is the "New York" pattern: densely populated states with a large elderly population. Hit very hard very early with a very high death rate, but after a couple of months got a handle on it and from then on was about average.

There is the "Washington" pattern: a fairly steady rise in deaths per capita, never quite under control but never really out of hand either.

The "Florida": like Washington for the first 3 or 4 months, then shifts to a more rapid growth, and pretty much stays there.

The "California": 3 or 4 months like Washington, the starts to Florida but gets the rate back down, then spends another 3 or 4 months like Washington (but shifted up because of the burp at 3 or 4 months), but then loses it in the third wave almost catching up to Florida.

The "South Dakota": low population low density state that with reasonable precautions should do better than Washington, but by working really hard to ignore it manage to end up with high numbers.

Use the drop down to flip that graph from total deaths to total cases, and South Dakota is even more striking.

Flip to new cases or new deaths 1 week averages to compare how they all are doing currently. Florida's currently running about 3-4 times the new cases as California, and about 50% more new deaths. (Change the highlight dropdown from "All Highlight & All Current" to "All Current" to make it easier to see the latest values).

It will be interesting to see how vaccination will affect this. With the more easily transmittable variants becoming more common, which also seem to hit younger people more, I've seen the estimates from what we need for herd immunity go up to 80-90% from the early 70% estimates for the original variant.

Overall, there are enough people who say that they will not get vaccinated to make it unlikely that the US can reach that, especially if it turns out to be 90% needed. However, those people are not uniformly distributed among the states. I would not be surprised if in a half a year we end up with two kinds of states: those where it is fully under control due to herd immunity and life has largely returned to normal, and those where it is still sickening and killing a lot of people.

[1] https://www.usmortality.com/

[2] http://91-divoc.com/pages/covid-visualization/?chart=states-...

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