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The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

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Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#511

Post by Jeema101 »

TN1ck wrote: post #283
Jeema101 wrote: post #275

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It could be that you're confusing cause and effect, though. How do we know that the virus (or a precursor) wasn't already circulating in China, and was simply detected in Wuhan because of the fact that there are experts in coronaviruses who reside there? (Also I'm not entirely sure your statement about the gain of function research is correct. A Google search doesn't seem to provide any evidence one way or another.)

Interesting point, similar to why the „Spanish flu“ is called like that even though it originated in the US.

Yes good point . It's widely accepted nowadays that the Spanish Flu did not originate in Spain, yet that was the common belief at the time.

I think it also bears pointing out that, in the US at least, we largely failed to detect that the virus was spreading inside the country for some time - even after knowing said virus existed and with plenty of warning, so you have to wonder in retrospect how effective some of these so-called surveillance systems even are. It's easy to not find anything amiss when you aren't looking.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#512

Post by financialize »

dang wrote: post #496
briandear wrote: post #475

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> I think everyone had the best of intentions Then why did China silence Taiwan at the WHO? Why did doctors get arrested? Why did China lie about human-to-human transmission? Why are schools still closed in many parts of the US? Why was a travel ban for Chinese travelers called xenophobic while the UK travel ban wasn’t? Best of intentions, my ass. This was political adrenaline from almost the start.

Please don't take HN threads further into flamewar. This is a noticeable step in the wrong direction. https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html

Fuck off.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#513

Post by jollybean »

walleeee wrote: post #489
jollybean wrote: post #474

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Because the origins are in China, and the lab breakout would be squarely blamed on China, the incentive for them to lie is basically existential. Since the CPP manipulates all data for their gain, it's very well within their objectives and capabilities to make up whatever story they think will work. Literally the future of their Empire is at stake. As for the Americans, their culpability in helping make the lab I thi…

There is a paper trail establishing joint American-Chinese gain of function research taking place in Wuhan, and if we're going to judge the lab leak hypothesis plausible, I see no good reason not to ascribe similar motivations to cover it up to the US government as well as to the Chinese > It could feasibly lead to a chain of events sparking a war. The American stance as it stands could very well lead to war, with or…

Because Americans were helping to finance something, does not make them directly culpable.

More importantly this is raw populism, not details.

If there were conclusive evidence that mapped COVID to the lab ... I think literally Chinese people would be murdered the same day in violent outbreaks in Philippines, Malaysia and India for example. There would be anti-Chinese riots literally the world over, every Chinese business would be wary of having it's windows smashed in, politicians would have to balance tamping down the violence with doing politically populist acts of retaliation etc..

It would be really ugly. I can see people on CNN begging to stop the violence.

That America sponsored some of the specific research I don't think would much factor in either in the US or anywhere else.

Business between China and the rest of the world would have to transform quite dramatically.

All actual facts aside, that would be my big worry.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#514

Post by ngcc_hk »

“Angus ... Reply to Michael McElfresh The question of SARS-CoV-2’s origin has little bearing on the trajectory of the current pandemic. But it’s hugely important when it comes to preventing future pandemics.

If the research that supposedly protects us from zoonotic spillovers is in fact increasing the net pandemic risk (due to human error, accident, etc), then that research needs to be halted. At the very least, it should be limited and done only under tightly controlled conditions. This would require international agreement, and perhaps an auditing regime with actual teeth.

One thing is for sure though: we will never sort this out if we leave it to the WHO, and to certain researchers who have a personal/financial stake in preserving the status quo.“

The institution like china, lancet, the virologist community ... is what worry me more. Accident happened. But if this is nuclear accident ... but it seems we can let Soviet Union covered up the investigation to the nuclear plant accident because it is funded by America.

Without fixing the institution all is lost.

And it seemed instead of fixing it the America would let the technology that grounded the other “dangerous” way of making vaccines to everyone without ip protection. Commerical interest whilst is not the best way to protect is still an alternative to this scientific community that seems not able to. At least sine did not.

Government, public institutions, medical, scientific, commercial, social, media ... what is left.

Good luck humanity.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#515

Post by onethought »

Kognito wrote: post #241
onethought wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arresting Drs talking about a possible repeat of SARS is something China clearly wouldn’t want out unless it absolutely had to. The effects on markets, general panic etc are not nothing issues. Later discovering they really did have a problem and it was even worse than SARS going to a full lockdown at the main crossroads city right before Chinese New Year (the largest human migration event). The motivation feels very…

I don’t know why any mention of a lab escape automatically triggers people to start shouting “xenophobe”. There’s nothing particularly new about lab escapes, they happen quite frequently. And given the presence of a bio-lab studying coronaviruses just a short distance from the site of the first reported cases, why would any rational person not consider that as a possibility? I don’t think you even have to go down the…

In the context of the rest of my comment SARS, MERS... so we know that deadly variants of coronavirus break into the human population. But THIS one is the lab leak...

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#516

Post by AzzieElbab »

guesst wrote: post #504
AzzieElbab wrote: post #285

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Rogin covers this in his book “Chaos under heaven” and his earlier articles. Here is Rogan/Rogin snippet https://youtu.be/IqhKlkkc2Eo

You shouldn't have used the word "covertly". That completely distorted your point and made it false. I watched the Joe Rogan Josh Rogin clip you linked to. It's very interesting. But what Rogin says is that Fauci "found a way to turn gain-of-function research back on". He doesn't say that Fauci did anything covertly. He's describing effective bureaucratic maneuvering, which Fauci must be good at. He couldn't have sta…

good point, I am not a native English speaker and let things like these slip time to time.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#517

Post by onethought »

didericis wrote: post #246
onethought wrote: post #231

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Arresting Drs talking about a possible repeat of SARS is something China clearly wouldn’t want out unless it absolutely had to. The effects on markets, general panic etc are not nothing issues. Later discovering they really did have a problem and it was even worse than SARS going to a full lockdown at the main crossroads city right before Chinese New Year (the largest human migration event). The motivation feels very…

If this did come from a lab, it was an accident. I think it’s unreasonable to consider the spread in China intentional, as there’s no reasonable motivation to do so. The main difference from SARS is we know there is a virology lab in Wuhan researching coronaviruses right across from the wet market considered the epicenter. I don’t know enough about the reaction to SARS to know how similar it was, but my understanding…

“Right across from”?

If you are familiar with Wuhan, you’d know you are talking crap. The virology lab is on the East side of the river in the University sector of the city.

The market is on the west side of the river and is in the cbd sector of the city.

We are talking 10km distance apart, with a huge river between. And there are many other wet markets between that would more likely service the community closer to the lab.

That particular wet market takes a lot of shipments straight off boats and from outside the city.

But sure. If by “right across” you meant “on the other side of the CBD, across the largest river in China, and on the opposite side of the largest University campus in China” then I agree.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#518

Post by tripletao »

yread wrote: post #185
inciampati wrote: post #55

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> If Covid turns out to be a lab escape (which is a big if), It seems like we don't have evidence, but the natural evolutionary experiment that's occurred provides a staggering amount. We can see from the virus phylogeny that: 1. The virus entered the human population in October 2019. All known SARS2 sequences are related in a single clade that, under very soft assumptions about mutation rate, would coalesce in late…

> The virus entered humans with it's spike protein already fully adapted to the human ACE receptor protein. That's not really true. It was adapted to ACE but not perfectly. As the B117 shows it could do better. Coronaviruses mutate slowly and random mutation in the spike protein is a lot more likely to make non-functional than to improve it. It's good enough, not perfect. Evolution likes good enough. EDIT: but you do…

At least in silico, SARS-CoV-2 binds better to human ACE2 than for any other mammal tested. The only other animals in their "very high" category were primates with ACE2 very similar to human:

https://www.pnas.org/content/117/36/22311

Evolution doesn't require anything beyond "good enough", but it's surprising for a virus to be better-adapted to humans than to its animal hosts at the moment of its zoonotic jump--before the jump, where could that pressure come from? I don't think this is determinative, but it points weakly in favor of lab origin (e.g., from culture in human cells or in mice genetically engineered to express human ACE2).

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#520

Post by dirtyid »

didericis wrote: post #264
dirtyid wrote: post #233

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>I have a difficult time understanding why they would have been arresting doctors who were talking about the virus if it were natural. No doctors were arrested early on. Few got cold tea lectures about spreading rumors that literal SARs returned not novel SARs like virus. Signed boilerplate paperwork and was released back to work. This is generic behavior for "picking quarrels and provoking trouble" tier infractions.…

> No doctors were arrested early on The following happened to Doctor Li Wenliang: > On 3 January 2020, police from the Wuhan Public Security Bureau investigating the case interrogated Li, issued a formal written warning and censuring him for "publishing untrue statements about seven confirmed SARS cases at the Huanan Seafood Market." He was made to sign a letter of admonition promising not to do it again. The police…

Since when is being brought in for questioning equivalent to being arrested anywhere? Being arrested and prosecuted is being arrested. People deliberately conflate it build narrative of PRC hiding covid origins when its generic rumor quashing behavior by PSB. Point remains, non of the doctors alleged to be part of some massive cover up by conspiracy peddlers were subject to any of the treatment PRC actually reserves for coverups.

Huang Yan Ling stopped working at WIV in 2015. The only reason she's noteworthy is conspiracy theorist tried to link her as patient 0. People have some expectation that PRC should indulge in random conspiracy theory by parading her around. Like is US going open up fort Detrick for scrutiny? No because entertaining the whims of yahoos is ridiculous.

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