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The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

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Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#501

I think the media successfully conflated four separate questions: a) Did it form in nature or in a lab? b) Did it become more communicable via nature or via the lab? c) Did it make it to humans through nature (or wet market) or via the lab? d) If it came from the lab was it on purpose or an accident? as simply "OMG IT CAME FROM A LAB" and then claimed it's all a conspiracy theory. The media as a whole shot themselves…

The media can be expected to fuck up a science story, even a high profile one, because they do that as a matter of course, even for simple, basic technical stuff that would be obvious to a first year college student with the relevant major.

The true problem is those professional scientists who jumped on the "lol conspiratard" bandwagon and probably ended up carrying water for the CCP, albeit unwittingly. I'm talking about the government who cried "racism" when other countries started closing their borders to China — the first one to do that was of course Taiwan AKA Republic of China, who are by that token racist against Chinese people, I guess.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#502

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You're saying that Rogin reported that Anthony Fauci "covertly funded gain of function research", and that this fact (which constitutes an absolute blockbuster story) wasn't reported or corroborated anywhere in journalism, by an author who's everywhere in print and on TV but who somehow never said this in public, and the only linkable source is a podcast? Yeah, this didn't happen.

this is fascinating. Rogin is making the claim right before your eyes and your conclusion is that he doesn't mean it because he never printed it?

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Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#503

“ It later turned out that the Lancet letter had been organized and drafted by Peter Daszak, president of the EcoHealth Alliance of New York. Daszak’s organization funded coronavirus research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology. If the SARS2 virus had indeed escaped from research he funded, Daszak would be potentially culpable. This acute conflict of interest was not declared to the Lancet’s readers. To the contrary,…

I read Josh Rogin earlier articles on the subject. He also recently implicated Fauchi for covertly funding gain of function research, and he is pushing for congressional oversight/investigation https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/cong...

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Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#504

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> He also recently implicated Fauchi for covertly funding gain of function research I'm sorry, that essay (which is an opinion piece, not a work of investigative journalism) says absolutely nothing of the sort. What's your source on that? That's a pretty ridiculous accusation if you don't have evidence.

Rogin covers this in his book “Chaos under heaven” and his earlier articles. Here is Rogan/Rogin snippet https://youtu.be/IqhKlkkc2Eo

You shouldn't have used the word "covertly". That completely distorted your point and made it false.

I watched the Joe Rogan Josh Rogin clip you linked to. It's very interesting. But what Rogin says is that Fauci "found a way to turn gain-of-function research back on". He doesn't say that Fauci did anything covertly. He's describing effective bureaucratic maneuvering, which Fauci must be good at. He couldn't have stayed in his job for decades otherwise.

"Covert" means something very different, for example if he had taken money that was assigned to different research, funneled it to gain-of-function labs, and then falsified reports about how the money was spent. Some outrageous scenario like that is what you're implying with that word. Rogin implies nothing of the sort. Actually, from the facts in the OP article, which are drawn from public reports, it's clear Fauci got what he wanted overtly. That's how effective bureaucrats get things done.

By overstating the claim, you distracted from the significant thing, which is that Fauci was a major funder of gain-of-function research and, in the dispute between virologists about whether it was too risky or not, was strongly on the side that advocated for it. The other side managed to get the research shut down for a while, and then Fauci managed to get it turned back on. There's no suggestion or evidence that he did so in bad faith, as Rogin is careful to point out. But it does mean that he has a conflict of interest in dismissing the lab leak hypothesis, just like Daszak does. That's already a very strong point, and a lot for people to take. If you say that it was "covert" on top of that, you're acting like the very conspiracy theorist they want to tell everyone you are, and helpfully providing them with a bit that is easily debunked.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#505
post #423
post #273

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well here is surprise for you. I used to be a scientist myself. Just in a totally different area. From my experience being racist and impartiality to results in one's profession are orthogonal. All the arguments I see so far are of "but, but he cheats on his wife" quality.

This isn't doubting someone's opinion because of a completely unrelated character trait. Taking your examples, if he was cheating on his wife or eating babies (?) that probably wouldn't have any bearing on this. I think the issue people have is that someone with pretty questionable opinions on race has got some other opinions on a hot topic that has been tinged with racist rhetoric from the right. I can totally see w…

>"I can totally see why that'd be enough for some to pass on it and say "nah, no thanks".

I understand. This is their choice. We do not have to agree.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#506

The origin of COVID-19 is going to be one of the biggest news stories in 2021-22 IMO. China's global reputation is going to take a hit. I don't think they did this intentionally. I think everyone had the best of intentions and either they found something deep in a bat cave or there was a lab mishap. I've gone down the rabbit hole on this issue. Here are some interesting links https://scholar.google.com/scholar?q=R01A…

Is it fair to blame China alone if the institute was financed with foreign help?

They are responsible for enforcing safety standards, or having safety standards in the first place. Financiers have no authority on building standards or procedures, particularly in a place like China.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#507

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The most straightforward explanation is that factory farming of animals provided natural bioreactors to execute "gain of function experiments" where bats gave the animals viruses which eventually jumped to humans. What China and the CCP wants though is to have this debate centered around if it was lab produced or not. They can rely on western scientists to debunk the lab created hypothesis. That leaves their own theo…

The species of bats allegedly involved are not near Wuhan. Bats — aside from the few blood-drinking bats which aren't implicated, and aren't they New-World species anyway — don't tend to interact much with other mammals or with birds. Without human intervention, there's not much opportunity for them to infect humans or any other animals. Carnivores (raptors, felines, to a lesser extent maybe even canines) do eat bats…

> The species of bats allegedly involved are not near Wuhan.

This is incorrect.

Bat (Rhinolophus) sarbecoviruses have been isolated and sequenced in Hubei:

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/DQ648856

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/nuccore/DQ648857

The closest KNOWN bat sarbecovirus was found in Yunnan, but it was only 96% identical. That doesn't preclude the actual 98-99% identical progenitor virus of SARS-CoV-2 from living in Hubei.

Rhinolophus bats are all over southern China, and neighboring countries with a very wide range, and the all carry SARS-CoV-like viruses.

Also nothing precludes the species jump from bats to farmed animals happening in Yunnan and then infected animals being transported to farms in Hubei.

I also never mentioned pangolins or wet markets because we know at this point that neither of those are related. The animals to focus on would be minks and other mustelids or raccoon dogs or other farmed animals.

And we already know that SARS-CoV-1 likely originated in bats in Yunnan (where the "WIV1" coronavirus was found) while the leap to humans from an intermediate animal is thought to have happened in Guangdong. Again we have here a problem of "how did the virus in Yunnan jump to people 700+ miles away?" but in the SARS-CoV-1 case there's no weapons laboratory distraction. It happened back then with SARS-CoV-1 so therefore any objections you can have about coronavirus jumping species and geography is just falsified. It is unlikely clearly or this would just happen every other year.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#508

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It’s plausible either way, and the behavior is by no means a smoking gun, but it seems slightly more consistent with a lab leak hypothesis. I’d expect a slightly different pattern of attempting to control information if there wasn’t any connection to the lab. The disappearance of Huang Yan Ling is another bit of evidence that pushes me towards the lab leak. If I were to assign a percentage to it, I’d say about 60% ch…

> it seems slightly more consistent with a lab leak hypothesis. Do you actually have any evidence in which to compare and contrast how a government behaves when trying to cover up a manmade virus vs how a government behaves when trying to cover up a natural virus that has hopped species? Genuinely asking because we absolutely need to be pinning conclusions on evidence and not conjecture here. My counterpoint is Ai We…

The disappearance of Huang Yan Ling is significant because the Wuhan virology lab said she's fine and hasn't disappeared/is working elsewhere. Many suspected she was patient zero and died.

The CCP has a huge incentive to have her come forward and make some kind of a statement that she's fine and that the outbreak has nothing to do with the lab/those are all rumors, similar to what the lead researcher Shi Zhengli did. The expected behavior if she were the target of a rumor that she was patient zero would be to squash it immediately in the strongest way possible, whether or not it were true. Huang Yan Ling making a statement and talking about that silly rumor would be the strongest way to squash that rumor.

The fact that has not happened suggests she isn't able to because she is no longer alive.

As to more generic comparisons about behavior during a natural virus vs an accidentally released virus, I don't have anything stronger than conjecture, but think a comparison to SARS would shed some light. Again, it is my understanding that during that outbreak, in which a natural virus hopped species, there was heavy handed action and repression of information about how bad things were getting, but that was after things had gotten bad. I don't believe there were doctors that were being silenced before the outbreak got severe. If you want to prevent the severity of a natural outbreak you need and want doctors to be jumping on the issue early, and I would imagine you would want to exaggerate the effectiveness of their early intervention rather than silence doctors trying to mount an early intervention.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#509

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is it fair to blame China alone if the institute was financed with foreign help?

They are responsible for enforcing safety standards, or having safety standards in the first place. Financiers have no authority on building standards or procedures, particularly in a place like China.

And what if that foreigners had paid you to create that deadly thing of a virus, even if it was just to see how bad a virus could be?

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#510

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> it seems slightly more consistent with a lab leak hypothesis. Do you actually have any evidence in which to compare and contrast how a government behaves when trying to cover up a manmade virus vs how a government behaves when trying to cover up a natural virus that has hopped species? Genuinely asking because we absolutely need to be pinning conclusions on evidence and not conjecture here. My counterpoint is Ai We…

> Do you actually have any evidence in which to compare and contrast how a government behaves when trying to cover up a manmade virus vs how a government behaves when trying to cover up a natural virus that has hopped species? I’m not GP, but GP used the term “lab escape”, not “man made”. Lab escape could just as easily apply to a naturally occurring disease that was being studied in the lab .

Yes. If you're talking about the bioweapon/artificial virus hypothesis, I am not suggesting that the virus was intentionally constructed. The lab was researching human transmissibility of bat coronaviruses and I believe there was likely some sort of accident.
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