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The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

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Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#481
post #171

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I can't read from your comment if you are talking about the PRC or the US political meddling. Given that both sides are as likely to do this for easy brownie points I don't think it matters as we will never have the correct answer: People in the US will at most be told one side while people in the PRC will be told the other. In the end it's just two sides throwing turds, like most politics.

I think it is really fairly clear that CCP is the side that prevented WHO team from conducting a thorough investigation at suspected ground zero.

See you picked a side there. The US has done just as bad as PRC. Different turds but still turds.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#482

"... proponents of lab escape can explain all the available facts about SARS2 considerably more easily than can those who favor natural emergence." "The natural emergence theory battles a bristling array of implausibilities." This is a fantastic article, but amazingly almost all of it is year-old news. Most of this was known in March 2020, and nearly all of it by the end of 2020. How does it take so long for the trut…

What bothers me about it is not only did it take a long time for the “truth to win”, but mainstream media orgs actively suppressed it because of tribal stupidity. It was used as an example of “fake news”: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/technology/biden-reality-... > “ Hoaxes, lies and collective delusions aren’t new, but the extent to which millions of Americans have embraced them may be. Thirty percent of Republ…

Ok, I checked. The users who downvoted the comment are well-established users with no obvious concentration on the topics you're posting about, and I didn't see any of the signs of suspicious behavior that we normally look for. Actually I recognize some of the usernames as good HN contributors, who are interested in and participating on a variety of topics. You might recognize some of them too.

I also downvoted the comment, by the way, so I can explain at least one of the downvotes. It wasn't because I disagree with you. It was because ideological battle is against the HN guidelines: https://news.ycombinator.com/newsguidelines.html.

When your blood is boiling, that's not a good state in which to post to HN. Better to wait for it to cool and then post in the key of curiosity. That's what HN is supposed to be for. I mean, I know you know this. But it's not so easy in practice, especially when you feel like you're under attack and your side is losing [1].

It's in your interest, though. Boiling-blood comments are like a Maxwell's demon who not only has energy to separate molecules into disjoint compartments, but enough left over to keep them buzzing angrily. You'll get upvotes and praise from people who already agree with you, and downvotes and anger from people who already disagree. But what you should be doing instead, if you want to help your own view, is trying to persuade the persuadable. That requires an entirely different, molecule-enticing strategy. A Maxwell's angel perhaps?

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[1] I don't know how many of us would have guessed it, but one thing has become apparent from trying to keep HN interesting: functioning curiously requires developing one's ability to experience difficult feelings and somehow carry them and not let them drive you into reaction—which is a pretty deep human task. It turns out that simply trying to optimize HN for one thing—curiosity—has counterintuitive consequences, some of which ask a lot of us.

https://hn.algolia.com/?dateRange=all&page=0&prefix=false&qu...

I wrote about some of those consequences here, if anyone is interested in reading further: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=23308098.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#483
post #479

Part of this discussion has got me thinking. If I were setting up a laboratory that does research on infective diseases I would definitely set it up as a small separate company, which would then apply for a research grant from the government, rather than as a wholly-owned part of some government department/ministry. Just in case, you know, some stupid employee slipped up and caused USD 10^N damages worldwide and ther…

I would in fact blame whatever country if they decided to rug vital informed under the carpet and let the disease spread in and out of their borders.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#484

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What bothers me about it is not only did it take a long time for the “truth to win”, but mainstream media orgs actively suppressed it because of tribal stupidity. It was used as an example of “fake news”: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/02/02/technology/biden-reality-... > “ Hoaxes, lies and collective delusions aren’t new, but the extent to which millions of Americans have embraced them may be. Thirty percent of Republ…

It would be helpful if the people that downvoted your post would explain why they did so.

[deleted]

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#485

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> The grandparent comment seems to be a critique of the third category, where they seem to want the mainstream media to give more air time to conspiracy theories in direct contravention to the consensus of the scientific community: which is that SARS-CoV-2 came from nature, not from a lab. My actual criticism was closer to your first category: "where serious discussion and inquiry is thrown out the window in favor of…

What's more sensationalistic: that SARS-CoV-2 had a natural origin or that it was lab made? Sensationlism is squarely on the side of the conspiracy theores.

Depends on your audience. There are people who love ridicule of conspiracy theories, even if they are completely closed off to any conspiracy theory being real.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#486
post #230

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sure, > The prior probability of a lab escape is low but the prior probability of "a pandemic from natural causes envelops the world" is also low, say below 1% a year. But now, given that "a pandemic does envelop the world", the posterior probability of lab escape and natural cause of course rises dramatically... and then saying "we didn't see much evidence for it" on a superficial tour organised by those responsible…

Many low probability events happen every day, without contradicting the prior that they remain unlikely. It is akin to saying "Pliny the Younger didn't die in Pompeii overtaken by a volcano because there is so many other cities he could have died in and other causes of death." Statistically, that would have been true, up until we learned that it happened. Then the low probability ceases to matter, since it becomes an…

> Statistically, this is due to both priors rising, proportional to their original values, such that now the sum P(lab escape)+P(natural cause) == 1

Exactly, that's what I was getting at - the prior for lab escape is low, but given that the pandemic happened, it the posterior for lab escape is 1 - posterior for natural.

And we had about as many examples for lab escapes as for natural epidemics in the last few decades, it seems to me.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#487
post #354

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>What could they possibly have gained from that? Global power shifts to their favor by slowing down democratic economies, sacrificing parts of their own population and economy in the short term. As a collectivist dictatorship tracking every move of its population a pandemic is easier to handle.

Isn’t it also becoming more and more suspicious that they appear to literally be almost the best country in the world at controlling it. We are talking multiple orders of magnitude better. I struggle to understand how exactly.

People fear consequences for not following quarantine state orders much more I guess. They are just more used to abide an omnipotent state, meaning no public backlash or counter movements like in the west.

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#488

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese state is by no means the only body pushing politicized information regarding covid origins It doesn't make much sense to single it out here, the most plausible version of the lab leak hypothesis is that covid is the result of cooperative research undertaken by American and Chinese scientists and funded by both governments Edit: I'd love to receive a substantive counterargument from the downvoters

I think you underestimate the carelessness of humans and their ability to understand risk. Years ago I saw a graduate student break important lab rules and bring home a genetically modified plant to show some friends and I how cool it was. Had that plant somehow cross pollinated with its wild cousins, who knows what kind of damage it could have done. The genie may never have ever gotten back in the bottle, kinda like…

I think you're misunderstanding me. I totally agree- humans are frequently careless and wont to ignore risks which don't slap us in the face

I'm saying there's a paper trail establishing joint American-Chinese gain of function research taking place in Wuhan, and if we're going to judge the lab leak hypothesis plausible, I see no good reason not to ascribe similar motivations to cover it up to the US government as well as to the Chinese

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#489

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The Chinese state is by no means the only body pushing politicized information regarding covid origins It doesn't make much sense to single it out here, the most plausible version of the lab leak hypothesis is that covid is the result of cooperative research undertaken by American and Chinese scientists and funded by both governments Edit: I'd love to receive a substantive counterargument from the downvoters

Because the origins are in China, and the lab breakout would be squarely blamed on China, the incentive for them to lie is basically existential. Since the CPP manipulates all data for their gain, it's very well within their objectives and capabilities to make up whatever story they think will work. Literally the future of their Empire is at stake. As for the Americans, their culpability in helping make the lab I thi…

There is a paper trail establishing joint American-Chinese gain of function research taking place in Wuhan, and if we're going to judge the lab leak hypothesis plausible, I see no good reason not to ascribe similar motivations to cover it up to the US government as well as to the Chinese

> It could feasibly lead to a chain of events sparking a war.

The American stance as it stands could very well lead to war, with or without covid as an aggravating factor

Exclusive attention to questions of Chinese culpability without turning a critical eye to the United States, as in the comment I responded to, feeds directly into the sort of tensions you claim to want to avoid

The sort of "realpolitik of information" you describe may be necessary for the maintenance of political order precisely insofar as its subjects believe themselves to participate freely and voluntarily

Re: The origin of Covid: Did people or nature open Pandora’s box?

#490
I've seen the politico article and now this one. Is there an article like these from a source without political goals (https://thebulletin.org/about-us/), perhaps written by a scientist, or in a journal, etc?

I'd like to be able to share an article from a website that doesn't also write about Trump and facebook.

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