Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19 • Hacker News Board

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#211

Post by allturtles » Fri, May 07, 2021, 7:24 PM UTC

grumpyautist wrote: post #111

whimsicalism wrote: post #96

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> As well, you get the over-the-top cases where someone that dies of a gunshot is included in the covid death count[0]. ? It's incredibly clear by looking at Colorado's numbers, there was no misclassification at all. Definitely mistakes have been made, but this isn't even an example of one. Your comment is bizarre. The same case you're criticizing is from the state you go on to praise in the next sentence. These, une…

Prior to April 2020 the diagnostic criteria for a covid death required 0 testing whatsoever. Combine that with financial incentives to record something as covid, and the lack of other income for hospitals as patients wouldn't come for minor things and elective operations were cancelled and you have a perfect storm for bad data

The vast majority of deaths happened after April 2020, so even if those were all made up, it wouldn't affect the overall count much.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#212

Post by username90 » Fri, May 07, 2021, 7:25 PM UTC

sofixa wrote: post #117

ArkanExplorer wrote: post #70

Earlier quoted context omitted.

When ranked by COVID deaths per capita, Sweden is #27: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat... We should be concluding that lockdown and masks leads to more deaths, not less (or at the very least that they are an unjustifiably expensive public health intervention), and begin rolling back all restrictions immediately.

You can't compare countries like that. People live very differently in Sweden and India; the healthcare system is different, and so is climate, population density and distribution, customs ( e.g. in France people used to kiss on the cheek when meeting, including for the first time), etc. It would make more sense to compare similar countries, and Sweden is drastically worse than any its neighbours. Not only that, they…

Sweden had a couple of days living lost per capita more than its neighbours last year, hardly a catastrophe. Maybe it was worth it for them, maybe not, but it is really hard to argue that the difference is so large that Sweden was objectively worse.

If you argue about healthcare reforms overall then sweden does much better than Finland and Denmark, as expected lifespan was still much longer even when covid was at its worst. So a Sweden with covid every single year is still better off than Finland and Denmark without covid. Likely they could do better if they implemented some of Swedens others healthcare reforms rather than fight covid.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#213

Post by the_mitsuhiko » Fri, May 07, 2021, 7:26 PM UTC

timr wrote: post #108

newacct583 wrote: post #100

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Surely you'd agree that "2020 excess deaths are going to be predominantly covid" is a very reasonable hypothesis though, right? And you agree that "2020 has an extraordinarily high excess death rate", because that part is easily measured data, right? Basically: your response seems a bit nitpicky to me, which tells me that perhaps you're starting from a perspective where you're assuming the article is wrong and lookin…

> Surely you'd agree that "2020 excess deaths are going to be predominantly covid" is a very reasonable hypothesis though, right? And you agree that "2020 has an extraordinarily high excess death rate", because that part is easily measured data, right? I don't know the answer, and neither do you. But given that the top-line is asserting that there are 900k excess deaths due to Covid, the choice of assumption here is…

> There are lots of other plausible alternative hypotheses.

I would be curious which ones that would be.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#214

Post by retrac » Fri, May 07, 2021, 7:27 PM UTC

ArkanExplorer wrote: post #70

chmod600 wrote: post #13

It looks like Florida is two shades "better" than California in the diagram, which would put the total Florida death rate as better than California. That would be interesting because Florida did almost no lockdown. How could that be?

When ranked by COVID deaths per capita, Sweden is #27: https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deat... We should be concluding that lockdown and masks leads to more deaths, not less (or at the very least that they are an unjustifiably expensive public health intervention), and begin rolling back all restrictions immediately.

Japan also never had any legally mandated lockdowns or business closures. (Their constitution wouldn't allow it, among other issues.) But Japan is very different. A strong recommendation from health authorities with broad social compliance there may as well carry the full weight of a law. It's a country where your lost wallet will almost certainly be returned to you by a random stranger who finds it. Can you guess which country is often in the top five with Japan in studies which test civic virtue like that? Yep. Sweden.

It's worth noting that the governments in both Japan and Sweden have very strongly recommended distancing, and probably just as importantly they've provided some funding to allow individuals and businesses to comply. Just paying people to stay home without a compulsory element might have been quite effective in many societies with relatively high civic virtue and social trust, but only Japan and Sweden seem to have actually tried it.

Besides, if we're just cherry-picking examples -- well, Canada is doing much better than Sweden. Or America. And Canada is more comparable to America than Sweden. And Canada has had more drastic shutdowns and restrictions compared to America. So how does that fit into the picture?

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#215

Post by gen220 » Fri, May 07, 2021, 7:28 PM UTC

sweezyjeezy wrote: post #50

mywittyname wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Something to consider if you see anyone trying to downplay this. Most of the downplaying I've seen has revolved around the idea that those who died would have, "died anyway" from some other ailment or that hospitals are finding any reason they can to attribute deaths to covid. So, while you have a great argument, I doubt you'll change any minds because those who disagree flat out reject your premise.

I think it's kind of unlucky in some ways that Covid affected the old/unhealthy so disproportionately. I feel like we would have responded in a much more assertive and effective way had that not been the case. More people who were not in the risk groups would (ironically) have been saved, and we'd be a lot further on the road to recovery. Not a lot of young people know a huge amount of people in the risk groups, it's…

Our surprisingly-terrible reaction to COVID, due to the reasons cited in this thread, made me think of an (I think) interesting book/show plot.

What if there was an epidemic virus, that, within a year +/- a few months of contraction, killed hosts over the age of X (20, 50, 70), regardless of underlying health conditions.

It raises some interesting questions! The three I’ve come up with so far:

(1) what does a society look like, without (mature, older, very old) people? What surprising positive and negative evolutions occur?

(2) how would our current societies react to the gradual onset and eventual global expansion of such a disease?

(3) if we found a cure for the disease a few (now, shorter than previously) generations later, who would take it?

It’s kind of similar Lord of the Flies, except instead of a shipwreck, it’s a disease and it happens gradually, to preexisting societies and cultures.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#216

Post by alan-crowe » Fri, May 07, 2021, 7:29 PM UTC

maerF0x0 wrote: post #59

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #2

In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…

> Something to consider if you see anyone trying to downplay this. I admit I'm the morbid one in the group, memento mori and all. But I think the real stat we should track is years of lost life expectancy. That's the only statistic that makes sense when doing cross disease examinations. Not speaking specifically about covid, but more generally, something which primarily kills young people is much bigger deal than som…

I agree that we should be tracking years of lost life expectancy. I also believe in attempting a quality adjustment; we get better public policy from counting Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALY) lost.

I think that the main obstacle to this approach is that people instinctively think cross-sectionally rather than longitudinally. When you say "kills young people" and "kills old people", listeners focus on 2021. A young person is somebody born in 2000 and an old person is somebody-else, born in 1940. That is cross-sectional thinking, with 2021 as the date of the cross section.

But the real issue is that we nearly all live to grow old and get to experience both sides of the issue. Someone born in 2000 is likely to live until 2080. They will probably see a different respiratory virus going round then; it may even be what kills them.

So what would you personally prefer? The pro-lockdown approach trades losing a year out of your twenties to lock downs, in return for some action (perhaps ineffective, perhaps unnecessary) to ensure that you survive the plague of 2080 and get to live a few years longer.

The anti-lockdown approach makes the opposite trade-off. It is not really young versus old; it is now versus later.

I'm getting old and rather dreading later. I would prefer that society prioritize letting the young get on with their lives, education, dating, etc. and if I lose some poor quality care-home years, well, I've seen my grandparents and parents get old and frail, and I'd rather not dwell on the details of what I'm dreading.

If young people want to argue for the anti-lockdown trade-off, if they claim that in general young people shouldn't be locked down in the hope of protecting the elderly and they will accept their fate gracefully when they get old, well, I would think them wise beyond their years.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#217

Post by nickthemagicman » Fri, May 07, 2021, 7:29 PM UTC

What everyone is neglecting to talk about is the age effect of mortality with Covid.

For people under 55 the chance of fatility is miniscule.. in the range of choking or car accidents. This age group makes up 80% or so of the population.

For people over 80 this may be the worst disease since the black plague. Millions upon millions of deaths. This age group makes up approximately 10% of the population.

This is an important consideration because the lockdowns effectively trapped mostly working age people who weren't at risk of dying from Covid in the first place.

I think that's where a lot of criticism of Covid policies stems from.

Should we make national health policy based on a disease that effects a minority of the population?

Reference:

https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-...

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#218

Post by nonameiguess » Fri, May 07, 2021, 7:30 PM UTC

jollybean wrote: post #186

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #2

In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…

It's also greater than all of US military combat deaths for every war combined i.e. Civil War, WW1/2, Korea, Vietnam etc.. And think of how much concern (legitimately so) we have for them.

US Civil War death toll is estimated between 620,000 and 750,000, which is higher than the official Covid toll so far. It was also much more highly concentrated in a small number of states in a country that was far less populated.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#219

Post by knowaveragejoe » Fri, May 07, 2021, 7:30 PM UTC

fighterpilot wrote: post #93

seoaeu wrote: post #68

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since when are hospitals paid for having their patients die a specific way?

Medicare pays 20% more if they say that a patient has COVID[1]. [1] https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/2020/apr/21/facebook-p...

> Our ruling > A post shared on Facebook claims hospitals have a financial incentive to claim patients had COVID-19, saying payment is three times higher if a patient goes on a ventilator. An article the post links to includes comments from a doctor who suggests the number of coronavirus cases is being padded.

> It is standard for Medicare to pay roughly three times more for a patient with a respiratory condition who goes on a ventilator than for one who does not. That has nothing to do with the coronavirus.

> As part of a federal stimulus bill, Medicare is paying hospitals 20% more than standard rates for COVID-19 patients.

> Indications are that due to a lack of testing and other factors, the number of coronavirus cases has been undercounted, not padded.

> For a statement that is partially accurate, our rating is Half True.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#220

Post by teachingassist » Fri, May 07, 2021, 7:30 PM UTC

antibuddy wrote: post #180

teachingassist wrote: post #127

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> for now we assume that total COVID-19 deaths equal excess mortality. This seems reasonable, although I'd suggest it's an underestimate of COVID-19 deaths. Excess deaths counts have been consistently showing negative in countries during periods of time where they have coronavirus under control. Other significant causes of death (including suicide, influenza, road traffic accidents) appear to be down. As such, I'd as…

I noticed (late summer last year) that especially age group 25-44 is/was affected in the US with a +25% (excess) mortality YoY. It is not entirely unusual that diseases affect different countries differently; However I found it peculiar.

I suspect this is the same in other countries.

25-44 year olds don't usually die (typical mortality is approx 0.1%), so +25% represents a relatively small number in absolute terms.