Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19 • Hacker News Board

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#51

Post by throwaway0a5e » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:20 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #45

mywittyname wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Something to consider if you see anyone trying to downplay this. Most of the downplaying I've seen has revolved around the idea that those who died would have, "died anyway" from some other ailment or that hospitals are finding any reason they can to attribute deaths to covid. So, while you have a great argument, I doubt you'll change any minds because those who disagree flat out reject your premise.

For the former, if someone is actually willing to listen to evidence, you can cite them numbers of average years of life lost per covid death (~15).

>you can cite them numbers of average years of life lost per covid death

That's practically inviting them to cite back the average life lost from the 1918 flu. If you're trying to counter someone who's downplaying Covid that is probably not something you should invite them to do.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#52

Post by mettamage » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:20 PM UTC

whimsicalism wrote: post #45

mywittyname wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Something to consider if you see anyone trying to downplay this. Most of the downplaying I've seen has revolved around the idea that those who died would have, "died anyway" from some other ailment or that hospitals are finding any reason they can to attribute deaths to covid. So, while you have a great argument, I doubt you'll change any minds because those who disagree flat out reject your premise.

For the former, if someone is actually willing to listen to evidence, you can cite them numbers of average years of life lost per covid death (~15).

^ This is my argument as well. I also translate every probability to sequential coin tosses.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#53

Post by agumonkey » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:21 PM UTC

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #2

In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…

To be fair, I feel it's been naturally downplayed already. It's really not shocking anybody anymore. There's a weird fuzzy average life that emerged where most people are just waiting for the thing to go away and the casualties have become numbers.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#54

Post by tomp » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:21 PM UTC

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #2

In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…

> Something to consider if you see anyone trying to downplay this.

It's invalid reasoning to use this study to "upplay" the pandemic.

It includes deaths due to depressions and delayed medical interventions, which you could argue isn't the result of COVID directly, but the result of lockdowns.

So when people use this study to claim "see, this many lives were lost, we were right to institute lockdowns" - that's circular reasoning, part of the reason so many lives were lost is because of lockdowns.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#55

Post by cronix » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:21 PM UTC

tunesmith wrote: post #29

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #2

In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…

I had no idea about HIV deaths, I would have guessed it would be 2x-3x COVID deaths. I don't think that means "HIV had a smaller impact than I thought", I think that means COVID is bigger than I thought. We get desensitized to the numbers. Thanks for the perspective.

HIV is a lot harder to spread than airborne viruses. But, imagine how much worse it would have been if it was airborne.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#56

Post by seoaeu » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:21 PM UTC

grumpyautist wrote: post #36

timr wrote: post #20

This isn't a "study", it's a statistical model. It reflects the assumptions put into it. To wit: > Our analysis follows four key steps. First, for all locations where weekly or monthly all-cause mortality has been reported since the start of the pandemic, we estimate how much mortality increased compared to the expected death rate....Second, based on a range of studies and consideration of other evidence, we estimate…

Yep, and it's a suspect one at best. Personally I wouldn't trust a stastical model from someone who advertises that they own the book "how to lie with statistics" and obviously used it

I trust someone who acknowledges that statistics can be used deceptively vastly more than I trust someone who doesn't.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#57

Post by arto » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:21 PM UTC

sweezyjeezy wrote: post #50

mywittyname wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>Something to consider if you see anyone trying to downplay this. Most of the downplaying I've seen has revolved around the idea that those who died would have, "died anyway" from some other ailment or that hospitals are finding any reason they can to attribute deaths to covid. So, while you have a great argument, I doubt you'll change any minds because those who disagree flat out reject your premise.

I think it's kind of unlucky in some ways that Covid affected the old/unhealthy so disproportionately. I feel like we would have responded in a much more assertive and effective way had that not been the case. More people who were not in the risk groups would (ironically) have been saved, and we'd be a lot further on the road to recovery. Not a lot of young people know a huge amount of people in the risk groups, it's…

"It's only grandma."

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#58

Post by gilbetron » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:21 PM UTC

whb07 wrote: post #10

Wonder how they accounted for the gun shot victims and motorcycle crashes who are accounted as covid deaths? Looking at Italian data going back to March/April of 2020, we knew that over 50% of deaths, the patient had 3+ serious diseases and had a median age of 79+. The true death rate is the delta of standard deaths in a “normal” year and the ones recorded now. That and somehow account for some pull-forward that’s cl…

If the same person had died from a stroke in Dec 2020 instead of covid, what's the real cause of death?

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#59

Post by maerF0x0 » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:22 PM UTC

AnotherGoodName wrote: post #2

In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…

> Something to consider if you see anyone trying to downplay this.

I admit I'm the morbid one in the group, memento mori and all. But I think the real stat we should track is years of lost life expectancy. That's the only statistic that makes sense when doing cross disease examinations. Not speaking specifically about covid, but more generally, something which primarily kills young people is much bigger deal than something which primarily kills old people.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#60

Post by Teknoman117 » Fri, May 07, 2021, 6:22 PM UTC

ddingus wrote: post #28

chmod600 wrote: post #13

It looks like Florida is two shades "better" than California in the diagram, which would put the total Florida death rate as better than California. That would be interesting because Florida did almost no lockdown. How could that be?

One of the people I know who died, did so after traveling to Florida where they did catch covid, return home and died 40 some days later on a ventilator. Maybe travel in and out of Florida is fluid enough to explain it to some degree.

> did so after traveling to Florida to catch covid

uh, what? I don't understand why anyone would willingly try to catch a disease...

(get your kids the chickenpox vaccine, don't do those chickenpox parties if those still exist. The vaccine drastically reduces the occurrence shingles later in life. I'm a bit envious that my younger sisters got it, but I got chickenpox as a child. Seeing it flare up in my dad every 18 months doesn't give me hope).