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Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

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31–40 of 387 posts

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#31

It looks like Florida is two shades "better" than California in the diagram, which would put the total Florida death rate as better than California. That would be interesting because Florida did almost no lockdown. How could that be?

You can't compare stats unfortunatly. Every state had different policies.

In Florida, where a vast amount of people go to vacation, out of town covid cases were not counted.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#32

It looks like Florida is two shades "better" than California in the diagram, which would put the total Florida death rate as better than California. That would be interesting because Florida did almost no lockdown. How could that be?

WHO has been consistent about being anti-lockdown during all of Covid. There's limited evidence they work more than a short-term delay tactic and cause tremendous harm.

I thought super hard, but localized and short term work the best? Seems most countries made only half hearted efforts.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#33

It looks like Florida is two shades "better" than California in the diagram, which would put the total Florida death rate as better than California. That would be interesting because Florida did almost no lockdown. How could that be?

Florida aggressively locked down visitor access to nursing homes pretty early on, which is where the vast majority of deaths happen. Wearing masks on beaches and in restaurants etc may slightly impact the case count but really doesn't impact mortality in the same way that an outbreak in a care home does.

Is there any reliable evidence that wearing masks on beaches even impacts the case count? Data from actual contact tracing seems to indicate that outdoor transmission is close to zero.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#34

This is anecdotal at best, but when my grandfather passed last May from COVID, his death certificate did not record the cause of death as COVID. He tested negative twice after his month long bought with it, but only lived for another few weeks until dying of respiratory failure. We were told that because he was not testing positive at the time of death, his cause of death could not be recorded as COVID. I thought cau…

Gets manipulated in the other direction too: financial incentives nudge hospitals to assign coronavirus as a cause of death if you had it when you died, even if it wasn't what actually killed you. I don't know if it's as blatant as "died in a car crash of coronavirus," but enough of my medical friends have mentioned it that I believe there's truth to it.

Many tallies in the US were adjusted after this specific criticism over 8 months ago. But I guess the talking point won't be updated, oh well.

My main issue with this criticism is that tallies of other illnesses have the same issues. So if an actual flu season said 20,000 people died, it had the same reporting issues and distribution of reporting issues.

This means a direct comparison to two ailments with the same distribution of reporting issues gives you an accurate view of the affect.

So even without going back and fixing the records - which I'm not sure you or other people even know happened - this means Covid deaths are more accurate and actually proves how it is much much worse.

Anybody see the irony there? Given that the point of bringing attention to this would be to downplay the severity or response (or that there is a 100% correlation between the people that subscribe to these talking points and want a dramatically different response or no mitigation response at all), so, thanks for keeping healthcare authorities accountable, I guess.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#36
post #20

This isn't a "study", it's a statistical model. It reflects the assumptions put into it. To wit: > Our analysis follows four key steps. First, for all locations where weekly or monthly all-cause mortality has been reported since the start of the pandemic, we estimate how much mortality increased compared to the expected death rate....Second, based on a range of studies and consideration of other evidence, we estimate…

Yep, and it's a suspect one at best. Personally I wouldn't trust a stastical model from someone who advertises that they own the book "how to lie with statistics" and obviously used it

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#37

In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…

We'll have to wait 20+yr for the controversy to simmer down but I bet when you run the numbers using a metric like YPLL (which is the typical metric used for these sorts of comparisons) the difference between Covid and other big pandemic outbreaks over history is going to be more minor.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#38

In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…

Remember that life expectancy went from 60 -> 80 over the last century.

80% of the deaths have been from folks aged 65+. So, it is arguable that the Spanish flu would have killed a lot more if the average lifespan was higher.

Re: Estimation of total mortality due to COVID-19

#40
post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Florida aggressively locked down visitor access to nursing homes pretty early on, which is where the vast majority of deaths happen. Wearing masks on beaches and in restaurants etc may slightly impact the case count but really doesn't impact mortality in the same way that an outbreak in a care home does.

Is there any reliable evidence that wearing masks on beaches even impacts the case count? Data from actual contact tracing seems to indicate that outdoor transmission is close to zero.

Yeah, I didn't feel like getting into that particular battle, but should have been more explicit; wearing masks outdoors has 0 impact on anything.
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