21–30 of 387 posts
Given how disastrously wrong most modeling/forecasting(1) has been during this pandemic color me a little bit skeptical that their model is somehow better. Models give wide latitude to fiddle with parameters.
This is anecdotal at best, but when my grandfather passed last May from COVID, his death certificate did not record the cause of death as COVID. He tested negative twice after his month long bought with it, but only lived for another few weeks until dying of respiratory failure. We were told that because he was not testing positive at the time of death, his cause of death could not be recorded as COVID. I thought cau…
In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…
It was #3 in 2020 even though widespread testing only started in March. Seriously frightening stuff. Imagine if we went from zero heart disease or zero cancer deaths to present numbers in the span of one year... https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/70/wr/mm7014e1.htm
Hell, even the Flu is a combination of diseases: TypeA, TypeC, etc. etc. Even Flu-TypeA is a combination of different diseases: H3N2 (Bird Flu) and H1N1 (Swine Flu) are both Flu-TypeA.
For a singular disease + minor mutations (COVID19 vs B.1.1.7 vs P.1 extremely similar and covered by the same vaccine) to cause such a death count is pretty remarkable.
This is anecdotal at best, but when my grandfather passed last May from COVID, his death certificate did not record the cause of death as COVID. He tested negative twice after his month long bought with it, but only lived for another few weeks until dying of respiratory failure. We were told that because he was not testing positive at the time of death, his cause of death could not be recorded as COVID. I thought cau…
This is why excess deaths is the real metric by which the toll of this pandemic will be measured, at least in countries with reliable records about whether deaths happened at all.
It looks like Florida is two shades "better" than California in the diagram, which would put the total Florida death rate as better than California. That would be interesting because Florida did almost no lockdown. How could that be?
There's limited evidence they work more than a short-term delay tactic and cause tremendous harm.
It looks like Florida is two shades "better" than California in the diagram, which would put the total Florida death rate as better than California. That would be interesting because Florida did almost no lockdown. How could that be?
What I don't get that people who don't want lockdowns also oppose masking and other measures. Why not try to keep things open but also strongly support masking just to be sure?
This is anecdotal at best, but when my grandfather passed last May from COVID, his death certificate did not record the cause of death as COVID. He tested negative twice after his month long bought with it, but only lived for another few weeks until dying of respiratory failure. We were told that because he was not testing positive at the time of death, his cause of death could not be recorded as COVID. I thought cau…
More generally, there is no universally agreed way to record all the factors that contributed to a death at the time of death or certification. This is why excess deaths is the real metric by which the toll of this pandemic will be measured, at least in countries with reliable records about whether deaths happened at all.
It looks like Florida is two shades "better" than California in the diagram, which would put the total Florida death rate as better than California. That would be interesting because Florida did almost no lockdown. How could that be?
Maybe travel in and out of Florida is fluid enough to explain it to some degree.
In absolute number terms it's more deaths in total in the USA than the Spanish Flu (675k deaths total since it began), HIV (700k deaths total since it began) or any other pandemic. Population has increased so the US did lose a smaller percentage of population but on the other hand Spanish Flu didn't have a vaccine to stop it one year in. Hopefully enough of the population takes the vaccine now to stop this. Note this…
It looks like Florida is two shades "better" than California in the diagram, which would put the total Florida death rate as better than California. That would be interesting because Florida did almost no lockdown. How could that be?
Figure 5: The (estimated) ratio of reported versus total deaths. It appears from it that FL was more accurate in their reported numbers than CA. That has absolutely nothing to do with lockdowns.
Figure 7: The cumulative deaths, where FL and CA are the same color (that is, in the same range of cumulative deaths).
Either way, neither indicates that FL's death rate was better than CA's.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1109011/coronavirus-covi...
Shows that FL has a higher death rate than CA. Though if you take the adjustment from this paper into consideration, then CA's would be worse.